I was perusing Thomas Robinson's 82games.com page and observed a couple of things. The 10% of shots blocked Everyone seems to be alarmed by the "10% of shots blocked" being thrown around. There's a couple of things to think about here: 1) The small sample size. Robinson has played 809 total minutes and put up 243 shots. 10% of that is of course 24. Think about that. Can we really say anything definitive about 24 total blocked shots? That's small enough of a number to review individually by video and see what's really going on than chalk it up as "this guy can't finish". 2) Everyone's favorite "undersized" PF Paul Millsap gets 9% of his shots blocked. 9-10% of shots blocked isn't great but it's not unheard of and plenty of players are considered successful even when that's happening. Remember, getting blocked is better than missing shots because there's a much higher chance of getting the ball back. % of Scoring Shots Assisted According to 82 games, Thomas Robinson gets 50% of his points off of assists. This is actually a staggeringly low percentage for a big man, especially a 21-year old rookie. Again, Millsap gets 62% of his shots assisted. Even the last truly great offensive big man Yao in his last good season 08-09, got 58% of his points from assists. The "best center in the NBA" Dwight? 68%. The Kings put Thomas Robinson in a terrible position by putting a 21-year-old undersized rookie to create shots for himself, which is just not how you do things in today's NBA. No wonder Robinson has been shooting poorly. Granted this has a lot do do with how awful the Kings guards are at setting up plays, but the Rockets situation is infinite times better in that regard. Conclusion No, Thomas Robinson has not played well thus far in his NBA career, but there is enough evidence there of how things went down in Sacramento to remain optimistic especially given how vastly better of a situation it is in Houston.
Claims insufficient sample size to extrapolate information from. Continues to extrapolate information from said sample.
I never said it was insufficient. Just not enough to chalk it up as "the dude can't finish". Also, the second sample size is 4 times as big as the first one: 24 blocked shots vs. 103 made baskets.
Good observation. Also if he has been left to create his own shots half the time, chances are as a rookie he has found himself driving in somewhat out of control and not yet savvy enough to deal with NBA level help defense. Beating your own man is only part of the puzzle when you attack the basket. That's what killed Harden that first game against OKC. By the third game he adjusted and played more under control.
No, the sample size would be 243 shots for both. Enjoyed the % of baskets off assist stat. Goes a long way to explain the problems in Sacramento. Morey's super advanced stats say TRob can play, therefore TRob can play. I hope Morey writes a book someday explaining what stats he thinks are important.
One stat that stands out to me is 25% FG from 3'-9'. http://hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Thomas Robinson To put this in perspective...Thabeet was picked higher and had a better rookie year than T-Rob has had so far.
The last time I remember Morey saying fans would love a player after a trade...Kyle Lowry. I was skeptical since we traded a starter for a backup, but Morey's little computer had it right.
Two words - "Trade Asset". He definitely does not fit into the Rockets offensive system, but with proper coaching and showcasing of his talents he could be a huge trade chip this summer.
I certainly understand that view but I don't see it that way. The % assisted is only on made shots so it's 103 of them. The same logic applies to the blocked shots in my mind in that we're putting significance into 24 individual events. I'm not so concerned that the fact that he was blocked 10% of the time but rather why those 24 events happened. I agree. I would venture to say most of his analysis on Robinson are based on his college stats though.
his size really bother me than anything else. if you look the pic of him and mchale. he is too small to play pf. i am old school. i always believe bigs.
He's got decent footwork. I'd like to see him spend the summer training with Dream and see what develops.
We could almost use a subforum for preliminary opinions and observations on Robinson. There are definitely folks that seem to be combing for evidence to declare the guy a bust before he's played game one for us...hilarious, given that Morris had to wait a few months before seeing the court at all. The blocked shots bit is definitely overblown. Something also lost in that? It indicates that he's mixing it up in the paint - you know, the kind of thing you'd want from a power forward. Everyone fell in love with the Stretch 4 fad, but it's fools gold. So 10% of his shots are blocked near the basket? You know what else happens? 29% of his shots come along with a FT*, or a .09 FTA/min rate. He draws fouls and gets to the line, stressing the other team's defense. People always blow by this, but it's a CRITICAL key to winning. Living on the perimeter is a risky scheme, because (a) you lie and die by your jump shot night to night, (b) outside jumpers rarely draw fouls, and (c) missed outside shots ignite fast breaks the other way. And when it's your frontcourt players milling around 25+ feet away from the basket, you can forget about them crashing the boards. Good things happen when you get to the rim. Thomas Robinson has an excellent nose for it, diving from the weakside or flying in for put backs. Looking forward to the new rotation, as soon as McHale gets rid of his bitter beer face. * Robinson (1.4 FTA/4.8 FGA: 29%)(.088 FTA/min) Patterson (1 FTA/9.7 FGA: 10%)(.039 FTA/min) Morris (1.4 FTA/7.4 FGA: 19%)(.065 FTA/min) for comparison Harden (9.9 FTA/17.4 FGA: 57%)(.257 FTA/min)(That's real superstar numbers) Aldridge (4.8 FTA/17.7 FGA: 27%)(.127 FTA/min) Love (7.9 FTA/16.6 FGA: 48%)(.230 FTA/min) Griffin (5.5 FTA/13.7 FGA: 40%)(.170 FTA/min)
Thabeet actually had a pretty solid rookie year just in general, even when you consider how high he was drafted so if the implication is that he'll follow Hasheem's path, that's silly. Dirk Nowitzki had a worse rookie year than Hasheem.
Robinson doesn't have excellant finishing ability, especially against taller defenders. This is true even in college, and his NBA percentage was predicted correctly by basetball prospectus's author Kevin Pelton(check the "painted area" thread). His percentage is much lower than Millsap's. That being said, Trob can be successful if he utilizes his excellant speed and rebounding ability. He can easily increase his shooting percentage by running the fastbreak, offensive putback, curls&cuts and rolling to the basket in PNR's. IMO the key for him is to develop a consistent and reliable jump shot. He improved his jumper in college, but it's still not good enough. If he can hit the jump(or 3pt shots like Leonard did at Spurs) and bait out the defender, his speed will be devastating for attacking the basket.
The 10% figure is not alarming at all in my opinion. Players that take a lot of shots near the basket tend to get their shots blocked. Asik is at 13%, and Carl Landry is at 11% to give a couple of examples. He has a low shooting percentage which is more troubling to me, but he is a rookie, and it's not unusual for rookies to struggle shooting the ball. At this point, McHale is just looking for him to contribute by rebounding, playing defense, and running the floor. We may not even see much from him until next year if D-Mo plays really well. I do think that having a PF that can rebound and defend would be a big help this season, so maybe he can serve in that role.
Like Dennis Rodman old school? Or Charles Barkley old school? Or are we going back to Elvin Hayes? I do agree though that I would like a 7 ft pf with post presence and can step out to hit the J, but who could that be? Do we already have someone like that or could be that?
Points from assists is a very good point...one we kind of figured because the kings have terrible Guards when it comes to assists. But nice to see the numbers...thanks repped!
Not to sound like OHMSS, but I'll wait until the eye test on him before making a prognosis. Nice job digging up the stats though.
