Let's do a comparison (for those who find a distaste for the RAW statline) For the 10-11 season - both are franchise players/all-stars (#1 option on their teams) Player A: 26.7ppg, 7.5rpg, 7apg, 51%fg, 33% 3s, 76%ft, 1.6spg Player B: 26ppg, 7.1rpg, 3apg, 46%fg, 34% 3s, 83% ft, 0.9spg Who is the better player?
Tim Duncan averaged 2.3 blocks per game for his career, with the last 4 years averaging between 1.5 and 1.9. Of the guys I listed: Pau Gasol averages 1.7 blocks. Al Jefferson averages 1.3, but mainly due to barely playing his first two years. Of course, I am not allow to take that into consideration since we are only looking at RAW stats. The last few years he has averaged close to 2. Amare averages 1.5, and last year 1.9. Kaman averages 1.4, with one year at 2.8. Of guys I haven't listed: Javale Mcgee averages 1.7 in his brief career, and 2.4 last year when given more minutes. DeAndre Jordan averages 1.3 in his brief career, and 1.8 last year when given more minutes. None of the guys above come close to Duncan in terms of defensive impact(even in his last 4 years), despite their shot blocking. In fact, the RAW statistic of shot blocking is not a good indicator at measuring defense at all. Guys like Mcgee and Jordan are routinely found out of position defensively because they are always going for the spectacular block. While that might stimulate the juices for guys like you, their teams suffer for it. That might not be simple enough of a concept for your liking, but as Carl pointed out, we should probably start out with elementary arithmetic first anyways. Yes, this tells us Kevin Martin scored at a higher rate than Wade. As far as in what way they scored, how efficiently, how effectively, how much impact on offense? This tells us nothing, since PPG is only a RAW stat. Thanks for ending with that though. In fact, you probably should have ended a long way before that.
1) The last 4 years of averaging 1.5-1.9 (he's out of his prime), that should tell you how dominant Duncan was on the defensive side of the ball, purely looking at blocks per game. In his prime years, he was at 2.5+ blocks per game for the most part. The other guys you mentioned, nowhere close. 2) Amare has always been the primary big man on his teams (Phoenix and now NY) and he was asked to play defense, his career best is 2.1bpg. There's a reason he's been knock for his defense/rebounding, the main reason why he's not a superstar PF, but simply an allstar. 3) McGee is put in the games to defend/rebound/block shots. 2.4 blocks in 28 minutes. And b/c he does that, that's why he's in the game. So good call on that. I don't need to look beyond that. He's like a Swift on offense, but b/c he does what he is asked to do, he still plays. 4) It's safe to say that Amare Stoudamire is considered the better player than Duncan last year. Amare was a 2nd teamer, Duncan wasn't selected. To your last paragraph, I can't seem to stress enough this point. It's like I keep repeating myself: look at their roles on their respective teams. You really cannot compare a Mcgee or Jordan to a guy like Tim Duncan b/c he's able to put up the block shot stat, AND get 20/10. It's really dumb to make that comparison. You don't compare a one-dimensional player to a multi-dimensional player. It's better if you compare guys who are asked to do the same things as Tim Duncan, and then compare their stats. Say an Amare. In most of his prime years, he has averaged 1-1.3 blocks per game (with 2 years out of that range). That's ridiculously pathetic. And he never averaged mroe than 10 boards per game (and he's asked to do the same things Duncan does for the most part). There's a reason that the stigma of poor defender/rebounder is attached with Amare, and people simply look at his RPG/BPG to justify their point. You really should look at advanced stats if 2 players are so eerily similar (when they are asked to do the same things) when comparing. The raw boxscores are usually sufficient to differentiate most comparisons in my eyes. But if you need more info, then look into advanced stats. Why make things more complicated than it really is? Michael Jordan is considered the greatest perimeter scorer in the history of the game. How do I know that? I just look at his career PPG and fg%. You really think I should look elsewhere to make my argument? How do people rank the greatest scorers/rebounders/shot blockers in the game? By looking at PPG, RPG, BPG for the most part. I don't think it's appropriate that you discredit the raw boxscore stat, when it has been kept forever, even before the invention of "advanced" stats. 5) I don't need the per 36 minutes to tell me Wade was the better scorer (the per 36 min tells you otherwise). I can simply look at the raw PPG stat. Wade put up 26. Kevin put up 23. Why? B/c when Martin did play 38 minutes per game in 08-09, he put up 24.6ppg (lowr than what Wade did last year in 37 minutes). Another reason why per 36 is highly misleading. Players may not duplicate the same per minute production if they played more minutes. If a player plays 15 minutes, judge his stats based on that 15 minutes. If a player plays 40 minutes, judge a player by those 40 minutes. There's a reason they are played those minutes.
Statistics are in no way absolute in telling us how a player will turn out. You can always exceed expectations through hard work, practice, and a bit of luck. They do however, paint a very clear picture of how a person was and performed. They also allow us to identify trends and make fairly accurate predictions. There is a reason why we have a science for the human psyche. It is also the same reason why people can be predicted typically to react a certain way given a pre-established routine and why history tends to repeat itself. People can be mostly calculated on what they can do and/or are expected to do. Box score is a very superficial way of keeping track of the performance of the player and also the easiest one to remember. Hell, you barely have to calculate anything, just count and tally. Unfortunately, it doesn't tell us too much else beyond the numbers the player finished the game with. Advance stats allow us to concretely figure out habits, usage rates, hot spots, ect that can allow for better defense and offense depending on how the coach chooses to utilize those stats. Sure one can argue that a player should know all of that, but statistics can help prove something and/or help discover weaknesses. Per 36 is a good stat because typically players DO scale pretty consistently between increase of minutes and increase in performance. On the other hand, this is assuming that all other factors remain relatively constant, which is not always the case. Sometimes, numbers don't scale properly because previously, teams did not properly scout the players. Once they emerged as a threat, the D paid attention, and therefore his performance goes down from increased attention by the D. Per 36 is a good way to try to predict the potential of a player, but that is about it. Statistics are by no means the end all be all of basketball judgement. However, they do allow us to define a player's past performances and current initial worth. It also clearly defines the improvement or lack of in a player.
I think this year will be the year that truly tells us what kind of player we have in Lowry. If we have we have a season that is.
There seems to be an inordinate amount of arbitrary rule making going on here. I also saw a line from tmac1 saying that Amare "is simply an all-star, not a superstar PF." What? He seemed pretty superstar-ish to me last year. So what is your basis for claiming that he is merely an all-star? What is the criteria for a player to be labeled a "superstar"? Please do not say the magnitude of their "IT FACTOR" or the "ability to impose their will on a game". I say that we make a thread with a definition of terms that all members must adhere to when arguing. Maybe then we can have outcomes other than "agree to disagree."
Carl Herrera said it best, "pulling opinions out of his ass without looking at facts." Same old r****ded story with lebron1.
I hope he keeps improving, he was out of shape at the start of camp last year, and it hurt him at the beginning of the year, but once he got his back right, and himself in basketball shape, he really took off. I just hope they are able to put some player around Kyle that can compliment his bulldog attitude, guys that can run with him, because if we are going to be rebuilding, I would rather watch a fast paced up and down game than a slow plodding one. DD
We seem to be getting younger and more athletic, so that shouldn't be a problem. The flex offense that McHale may bring in should pay dividends for a player like Martin and we can always count on Lowry to look him up first.
I hope Lowry gets some of the younger guys that run and finish more involved, Chase was great with Kyle as a rookie and I think some of his struggles last year were because Kyle was starting and was not passing him the ball in a finishing position. Players that can benefit from Kyle on the break or in transition, IMO are: Chase Jordan PPat Twill Lee Scola All of these are guys who take it to the rack - and I want to see a lot of that in a transition year. Assuming we are lucky enough to even have basketball this year, that is. DD
wow, nice to see someone else agreeing with my lowry predictions. http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=5830107&postcount=60 http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=5818999&postcount=16
I am really hoping Budinger proves my criticism wrong. I had high hopes for him coming into last season and he took them and smashed them against the ground. Let's see if he can make me eat crow this year (or next), instead of giving us another pathetic display at the 3 spot.
I don't know if he will ever be that quality starter, or just a good emergency guy that is efficient off the bench. Last year when he got to start (and play with Kyle btw) his numbers and effeciency jumped measurably. Even if he never gets better, for a 2nd round pick he has still been a steal. DD
I actually couldn't care less if he still sucks at shooting this year as long as he plays some freaking D on the other end and takes less shots. We have enough scorers, but still we have no interior, rim protecting defenders. We cannot afford opposing wings continuously blow past him like he is a windmill.
Tough to play great perimeter D these days, really really need a rim protecting big, or a scheme that is dedicated to D. Chase is not a good defender, he has gotten better, but I doubt he ever gets to Shane type of status...etc. I am unconvinced that our D will ever be that good with players like: Scola Martin Cbud in the starting lineup....unless we have a beast at the rim. Makes you really want to cheer for Thabeet to somehow get it. DD
So AB is a playmaker now? Man the fantasies just keep getting more outrageous! Wade is a playmaker. Kobe is a playmaker. Durant is a playmaker. When AB's shot is falling, he can generously be called a playmaker. When his shot isn't falling, he is damn near useless. What happens when a playmaker's shot doesn't fall? He finds other ways to shake his man and make plays or points.
Just because you dont think he was good enough didnt mean that wasnt his role. AB wad our primary playmaker that season. The guys you mentiomed are called superstar playmakers. There is a reason we reserve the superstar/all-star for a select few. AB was not one. But take into account what the team asked of him, he was our playmaker.
