SportVU Rockets/Blazers Analysis

Also I want to add, in general, I think the rockets seem to have poor rotations on Defense, anyone else think so?

 

It depends on how they are defending the pick and roll.

If they are hedging, then the guy guarding the screener is supposed to step up for a second just to delay the ball-handler and both defenders hurry up and recover back on your man.


The Rockets aren't great at defending the pick and roll no matter how they defend it.

 

It doesn't actually imply that. You are inferring it. According to this article, Beverley guarded Lillard for 30 of the 146 minutes Lillard played. No mention is made of the other 116 minutes, except that Lillard and Matthews were 1-7 from 3 combined against Lin.

That is not enough information to tell us how Lillard did when being guarded by Lin.

 

Interesting post, thanks

The first game against Portland was Bev's first game back from injury. The fourth game was the one that was two days after the emotional win over Miami that Bev spearheaded. He looked a little spent. These two games were also among Lin's best of the season. So, the stats might be a little skewed.

On the other hand, Lin has matched well against Lillard since last season. The Rockets should take advantage of that especially with Bev coming back from his meniscus injury.

 

Just stop.

 

If there are numbers that prove this please provide them.

 

You're looking at the wrong numbers. Lillard still gets his points, but where Beverley excels is he makes Dame less efficient. He also delays Lillard setting up the offense, which affects our entire ability to score.

Lillard will say otherwise, but Beverley is in his head. I hope Dame can rise above it. Otherwise, we're in trouble.

 

I don't get it, when Lillard was defended by Beverley, he is shooting 52% FG and 50% 3pt, how that is less efficient?

If you subtract the shots Lillard was defended by Beverley, the remaining shots he was shooting at 30.5% FG% and 37.5% 3pts.

 

Just realized you are a Blazer fan, took me a while to figure out who "we" are.

Actually I'm more concerned that Lilard is in Beverley's head, I don't want him get too much pressured, and try to prove something, and go super aggressive and get himself fouled out.

 

Lillard got to his season averages in 3 of the 4 games against Lillard. The one game he didn't was ironically the game that Portland won.

 

I think it's definitely conceivable that Lin can defend Lillard well. Lillard in some ways is a poor-man's PG version of Harden. He relies more on his power+speed combo rather than pure speed/agility that tends to give Harden/Lin more trouble.

 

Lin should have a good series.

The Blazers perimeter D is awful.

 

The Rockets really need ball pressure to bring out their 'at times' elite defense. Need Bev to stay out of early foul trouble.

 

Bev and Lin have a very different style - Lin will shadow the man all the way to the basket in many cases and go for the block or redirection. Bev hounds them out past the 3pt line - doesn't usually stay with the man to the rim, but his hounding style perhaps encourages a few less drives. Both are effective in different ways.

 

So, in the end, numbers don't matter, cozs we are all spin-doctors.

 

Now I am confused. Are the numbers clear?

 

Or maybe it's because it's a superior strategy to let Lillard drive versus shoot?

According to the SportsVu data, despite driving 7.6 times per game this season Lillard only shoots 40.4% FG% off drives. That makes him the 2nd worst FG% scorer of the top 25 players in drives per game.

http://stats.nba.com/playerTracking...S&filters=GP*GE*40**MIN*GE*20**DVS_TOT*GE*100

As a point of comparison, Lin shoots 48.8% and Harden shoots 48.2% off of drives.

Considering that Lillard shoots 39.4% from 3pt range and 44.7% from 16 feet to the arc, then doesn't it make the MOST sense to force him to put it on the floor instead of giving him the opportunity to screen for a pick and pop or pull up jumper from the outside?

Compare this with his shooting only 29% from 3-10 feet and 38.9% from 10-16 feet.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/lillada01.html

In other words, if you're defending Lillard you WANT him to drive to the rim. You want to go over the screen and force him to put it on the floor, then steer him to the inside where his shooting is dodgy and he's facing a big man.

So, assuming that the strategy is to LET him drive past you, then the main factor in terms of success will be WHO can convince Lillard that the driving lane is open, and who can steer him more effectively towards the right spots in terms of space, and who can cut off his driving angles more effectively.

Just something to think about.

 

Interesting. The last set of stats quoted showed Lillard shooting 25% vs. Beverley for the year. Or maybe it was 27%. Seem to be a lot of bad stats available for anyone who will look.