[SportsRadio610] Pancakes: Texans Closer To A Title Than Rockets

I put in bold the age drop-offs that should be a definite concern. Players that fill a significant role and are above age 30 (the drop-off period):

Owen Daniels (30) - he has not been the same since his injury, but his drop-off will be expected eventually.
Tim Dobbins (30) - easily replaceable as a back-up linebacker/special teams.
*Arian Foster (26)* - exception here due to the short shelf life of running backs, but who thinks he is slowing down in the next couple years? We already saw a down year last year, but still finished 12-4.
Andre Johnson (31) - yes, he is getting older, and people always predict his demise, but it never happens. I'll believe it when I see it, but many HOF WR have had very successful years in the twilight of their careers: there is not a reason to believe that cannot be Johnson. His route-running ability and size can make him a rich-man's Boldin in his late career. He has been the best WR the past 5 years according to PFF and will continue to draw a double team for a while.
Greg Jones (32) - one year rental, and the Texans have had a revolving door of FB for years. Very minimal loss here, if any.
Shane Lechler (36) - he still got leg power. many punters play long past age 30, and are effective.
Daniel Manning (30) - last year, he was not as effective. This is a concern, especially as he ages.
Chris Meyers (31) - centers can play very effectively for a long time after 30 (see Jeff Saturday). Isn't Ben Jones rumored to replace him?
Ed Reed (34) - a concern, nuff said. Hopefully Swearinger is what the Texans hope.
Matt Shaub (32) - will need a replacement eventually, but QB's can play well into their thirties.
Antonio Smith (31) - a concern. Jared Crick is a drop-off.
Wade Smith (32) - line-man don't see much of a drop-off because of age.

Based on contracts, salary cap casulties could be: Antonio Smith, Wade Smith, Ben Tate, Greg Jones, maybe Sharpton, maybe Braman, maybe Mitchell, maybe Graham, maybe Lestar Jean (all the maybe's depending on how they play this coming year). Losing the ninja will hurt, Ben Tate has been inconsistent, and Wade Smith has been very average (don't let the pro-bowl vote fool you). I am not worried about Greg Jones' replacement. Everybody else is not a star contributor.

In summary, this next FA period: Antonio and Wade Smith, Ben Tate, Greg Jones will be gone. Ed Reed will continue to decline. OD will start to decline, along with Manning. Can you see a title window without those four guys plus a little decline? I can. We also have a lot of youth and upside as well.

*Injuries* Not included in discussion. Yes, if the Texans lose Schaub or Watt, our Super Bowl hopes are done. I used http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/houston-texans/ for salary, and the ages are from the official Texans roster from their site.

 

That's it? What a horrible bet, I figured they were already mathematically eliminated from the post season.

 

But age isn't really a factor until there's tangible evidence it's a factor, you know what I mean? Schaub was having a typically Schaub-like year for 12 weeks, and his seasoning ending meltdown was not age-related. Andre Johnson posted perhaps his best season as a pro. Chris Myers and Antonio Smith remain vital contributors. I think age is a concern with Daniels and Smith (Wade), possibly Manning, and certainly Reed (though, again, age wasn't an issue for him last year as he had a very solid season).

Beyond that, on opening day Joseph will be 29, Brown 28, Foster 27, Cushing 26, Jackson 25, and Watt 24. Your (likely) starting OLBs 26 and 23; the (likely) right side of your OL 26 and 24; WR2 & 3 21 and 23. Altogether, they currently have 11 players 30+, and that includes Shane Lechler - and who cares how old he is?

Denver currently has 13 30+; New England 13; Baltimore 11; Pittsburgh 15...

They were 12-4; they have the best defensive player in football; a strong, young nucelus; weapons all over their offense; a certainly capable NFL QB; and All-Pro and Pro Bowl candidates all over their depth chart...

I'm not predicting they'll be 12-4 in five years... but this idea that *that* team is suddenly going to be mediocre just feels like a total stretch to me.

 

My biggest concern about this year is......Ed Reed. I just have a very 'Ahman Green' feeling about him. Someone please tell me I'm being irrational.

 

Andre trusts him. He was voted #18 in NFL's top 100, so clearly other players still greatly respect him. He stepped up in the playoffs. Champ Bailey and Dawkins were able to play great football well into their thirties. The beginning of the season should be a concern, but come playoffs, he should be 100% no question.

But no, you are not being irrational. I would not be surprised if he flopped, unfortunately.

 

Agree

 

The Rockets have a better shot and Vegas agrees.


Single-elimination games make it a lot tougher. You have a bad day and it's over.

A lot more can happen in a series. Injuries can strike like Russell Westbrook.

 

I'm John McClain and when I was in L.A. hanging out with the son of Jim Buss' neighbor's carpenter, I told him how when I was on the set of my last critically acclaimed movie someone told me that RG3, Heisman winner for the Baylor Bears, didn't think Dwight Howard had the work ethic necessary to be on a championship team.

 

Didn't he have his worst season as a pro last year? Like, bottom third of the league type bad? He was solid in the playoffs, but overall, it was a considerably down year for him.