I don't think Melo is the missing piece to a championship run this year. I also don't like our odds of selling him on Houston as a permanent home. But neither of these things has to happen for us to come out winners. All we have to do is get him to sign the extension. Most teams won't trade for him without a guarantee that he'll extend. We're placing a bet that he'll sign the extension, and I think the odds of that are better than most realize. If he signs, either we convince him to stay and Morey finally gets the star he's coveted for so long, or we flip him to the team he really wants to go to and score assets in return. Whatever he's saying right now, I'd be very surprised if he doesn't sign the extension in the end. The team that holds his Bird rights can offer him a better deal now, and going into a new CBA where salaries will almost certainly be reduced, he'll want to lock up that high salary while he can. This can burn us in a few ways. If his stated desire to play for the Knicks is not a bluff or a negotiating position, if he's really prepared to take whatever they offer him just to play in MSG, then we'll lose him for nothing in free agency after the lockout. If he signs the extension, he could refuse to suit up for any team but the Knicks, in which case there's not a lot of goodies we could get in a trade, having already pillaged them last year. It's certainly a calculated risk, but if we can get him relatively cheap, the potential payout is huge.
That's what I see it coming down to. On the "downside" of the "rental" if we did the trade Morey would concede that the large TE+Pick trade would be worth it "asset wise" versus the talent we would be giving up. Or at least an acceptable loss in the risk for trading for Anthony.
Only reason you don't do it is if you think Hill and/or Budinger will turn into stars. I seriously don't think that's happening. If it were a rental situation, you still have the assets you get back in a sign and trade. Big trade exception and draft picks. The picks would almost be even with what we give Denver if Morey includes the 2012 Knicks' pick in the trade and Melo goes to NY after this season.
Could it be that Carmelo is saying "no extension" so that his "preffered teams" won't have to strip away their rosters for a "rental"? Also, acquiring Carmelo probably means that CP3 or even Howard end up coming here also.
The other side of this is the extension. Morey could tell Melo he will trade him to the Knicks if he signs his extension, if Melo wants to after the season, but only if Morey is able to get player x and player y and this draft pick for him. If Melo agrees to the extension, I'm sure NY will have no problem giving up said talent to bring Melo to NY. Morey gets Melo for rental for half a season and then essentially gets what he could have gotten by being involved as a third team in an original deal to get Melo to NY. The problem Denver is facing with Melo is they aren't getting value back for him. The best deal on the table is Favors plus about 4 mediocre to low first round draft picks. The best draft pick is the GS pick available in 2012 I believe, and it is like top 8 protected. So, Denver's best deal is essentially Favors plus possibly a Hill and other lower first round draft picks. NY has even less to offer for Melo. So for Melo to get to NJ or NY, they are going to need some help. And for Melo to get his extension and get to choose where he wants to go, he is going to need some help. That is the key the Rox and Morey have. The Rox and Morey can help Melo get where he wants to go and get his extension. The Rox and Morey can also help Denver get more for Melo than they are currently being offered by NY and NJ. And the Rox can help NY and NJ get the player they really want. Denver, NY, and NJ keep trying to coming up with better deals not involving the Rockets and they are failing. Do you see that? They are failing? The one half-baked deal they came up with fell apart. It wasn't enough. We are the only team that holds all the keys. We can give Denver.........expirings.........cap relief (trade exceptions)........young talent......draft picks. Nobody else can give Denver what we can give them. And as a consequence no other team can give NY and NJ what they need to get Melo NOW.
I think it has more to do with opening us up as a destination for other, first-rate, superstars. The next crop of contracts expiring include Dwight Howard and CP3 in a year or two. I don't think any of them would want to team up in New Orlean's mess. With Orlando trading away Carter's expiring contract for longer-term commitments, I see them shackling themselves from any further improvements, or the ability to sign another star. With their inability to win the title in the next 2 years, IMO it is a foregone conclusion that Howard will be bailing. Without the ability/flexibility to complement Howard with his own superteam, Orlando should be out of the picture as well. If we are to somehow acquire Carmelo, I think we would be setting ourselves up as the premier destination for the cradle of the next supefriends/legion of doom.
I'm not getting my hopes up high on this Melo talk... Even if it was a rental I would still do it.. But my thinking is when was the last time Morey ever did trades that we heard about? It's always you hear one thing and then BAM! this just in Rockets has just traded for Josh Smith and Marvin Williams... It's always a What!!!! trade followed by WOW Morey is Genius :grin:
I don't think Melo would sign an extension with the Rockets unless he really wanted to be in Houston long-term. Unless it's an "extend-and-trade" deal, which goes out the window on February 24, 2011, he runs the risk that the Rockets will decide that keeping Melo in Houston is better than anything they could get from New York. Melo's not going to want to be held hostage. Also, as far as the Rockets being able to offer "draft pickS", I think it's really more being able to offer "A draft pick". The 2012 Knicks pick. The Rockets cannot trade their 2011 pick, and their pick from 2012 through 2016 is tied up in the Terrence Williams trade obligation (lottery-protected throughout, though). My guess is that the Nuggets would have little interest in the Rockets' own picks.
The only way I see this making sense is if the Rockets are able to trade Yao for a nice package. Then use our current assets to flip a deal for both Melo and CP3. That would be a great scenario if it were ever possible.
Wasn't Melo missing games because his knees were sore? I only get him to flip him or help him go somewhere else.
Melo wants to be a Knick despite the money differences, which really aren't that great. Everyone keeps pointing out that he will lose millions in salary. That may be true. However, being in New York means his endorsement earnings will skyrocket and his wife will have enhanced earning power as well. All in all, he won't lose a dime and may well increase his earning power. Acquiring Melo is a risky move, with the risk being severe and likely.
We would have to get Chris Paul to get Melo to stay. I think getting CP3 would be infinitely easier once we have Melo, its a catch 22 and I think its possible if we take on Harrington from Denver and Emeka from New Orleans. Send Yao, Jordan Hill, Shane Battier and a pick for Carmelo, Harrington and Birdman. Send Lowry/Brooks, Martin, Brad Miller and Jared Jeffries to New Orleans for Chris Paul and Emeka Okafor. PG: CP3 | Brooks | Ish SG: Lee | Budinger SF: Melo | TWill PF: Scola | Harrington | PPat C: Emeka | Hayes | Birdman
Actually his sister died. You guys wanted Morey to take risks...He's answered the call. Let's see if he's able to get something down though.
People also need to remember...Carmello's "weighing all his options"...including $18 million and some change that he's due to make next season that he would have to opt out of. That's a lot of money to decline, knowing that he's still going to get an extension from SOMEBODY and get paid regardless. If the Rockets are pursuing a trade for him, it's not a guarantee that we'll only be "renting" him for a half of season...he could still decide to remain with the team that trades for him this season (for next season). There's not a 100% certainty that there's going to be a lockout and that he'll lose the $18 mil+ due next season.
Was it his knees or was it cuz his sister passed away. Could be either/or, or maybe a some sort of combo of both.
I think it is unlikely that Carmelo will sign a new contract for 2011-12. Under the new CBA, he will lose a ton of money. More likely, he will take the player option and do one more year with his new team, and then try and get a trade that works for him. If he does walk (assuming we trade for him), we can be under the new salary cap if we release all FAs, so we can add somebody in the worst-case scenario.
Melo has missed games this season because of both. He is currently out right now because of his sister dying but he will return thursday.
