Decision-making and scouting isn't precise enough a science to discern a .0000001% chance exactly. In an actual draft, what you are referring to is most likely a situation where different statistical models favor different guys, and people within the team have different opinions as to which player is the best based on various objective and subjective information. They will end up having a discussion and somebody's decision will carry the day. As for bpa in trade/free agency-- First, sometimes teams actually do this. For example, the Houston Rockets had Omer Asik, who played REALLY WELL for them in 2012-13 and still went out to chase Dwight Howard because he was the best free agent available. But "need" is a bigger consideration in free agency and trades because with veteran players a team can actually do a decently accurate projection as to whether a guy can actually help your team with regard to its immediate needs. People still make mistakes sometimes, but we at least have a better idea that Trevor Ariza can do certain things for your team in 2015-16 than we do about Tyus Jones.
He also played Tarik Black substantial minutes before we had to cut him. I have no idea where the idea that McHale doesn't play young guys comes from. None. It's baffling to me.
Draft BPA's in order to move up the draft, or to trade them in a package for an impact player who fits our needs.
Exactly. Generally speaking, they should go after a player with a good skill set who is mature, with some upside.
Royce White, Jeremy Lamb, Isiah Canaan..... Seriously, I don't have much confidence in Morey's first pick.
Scola played a great deal. AB didn't do that much until Year 2. Carl Landry was in the rotation in the 2nd half of the rookie season. But Landry only played 700 minutes that season, and AB played only 600. But Scola was a long-time pro by the time he came to the NBA, so it's not exactly the same as a fresh out of college kid. Some fresh out college rookies do play for good teams, but the point is that if you have a "need" at a certain spot, you can't just draft some college kid playing that position and say "OK, the need is now filled" because you can't really count on the player you drafted to actually be competent. He might be, but you don't know for sure-- or even reasonably sure.
1.Kpap+N.Johnson+future 1st round pick <==> Jeff Green(MEM)+#25 pick 2.T.Jones+#18 pick+Jeff Green+#25 pick<==>C.Frye(ORL)+#5 3.DMO+C.Frye+C.Brewer+#5+future 1st round pick<==>L.Aldridge
Fair enough. It is interesting to wonder how much gap there is between players anyway. It sounds like they have a clear idea who is bpa
With many teams going small these days, what's even a undersized PF anymore? I would consider 6'10+ pretty lanky for the PF spot. 6'9, 6'8 and even 6'7 just isn't that undersized anymore in today's nba. Strength and athleticism are bigger factors then 1 or 2 inches.
Well the problem here is that drafting is an exact science and you cant predict how well a prospect will do 100% accurately. For example way back then Houston had the chance to pick Batum but traded down to ultimately get Greene and Dorsey. Houston at the time probably thought there was just a small difference between Batum and Greene so why not get an extra prospect who can back up Yao Ming...but we all know how that turned out. Thats why you always go BPA imho, that small difference now can mean the difference between a 10M player like Batum vs scrubs like Greene and Dorsey down the line. Besides, the team doesnt exactly have a hole to fill with Bev and DMO healthy again the Rox are 2 deep at every spot, they even made an offer to Llull to play in the US and Vasquez said the Rox are interested in him too. IMHO we should go BPA all day every day.
Canaan was a 34th pick, nowhere near the first round. Royce White was a clear gamble, high risk and high reward move. Rockets had no stars at the time, and there is no denying that White was one of the most talented players in the draft. Morey did not fail in identifying the talent, the gamble just didn't pay off because White was crazier than people thought. Jeremy Lamb was the highest pick player Morey ever had (for comparison, Sam Presti selected Cole Aldrich with the 12th pick). Jeremy Lamb isn't working out with OKC, but he was clearly a top summer league player and did enough to impress Sam Presti.
