http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=lasthurrah&prov=cnnsi&type=lgns Last hurrah Peter King, SI.com I'm picking a Rams-Bills Super Bowl. HUH? Nothing all that mysterious about it. Actually, I'm going with the chalk, which says you should pick at least one team that is on course to continue rising from the mist -- for me, that team is Buffalo. And the chalk says to go with any other team besides Cincinnati or Arizona. That's St. Louis this time around. The team I like the most at this moment is Tampa Bay, but the law of averages suggests it would be stupid to fall in love with the Bucs. Since the 1979 season, which marked the end of the Pittsburgh Steelers dynasty, 24 Super Bowls have been played. During that span, only three teams have won back-to-back titles. Something's going to happen to Tampa this season to prevent the Bucs from repeating as champs. I don't know what it will be? Insidious selfishness? Brad Johnson going down? Key defensive guys getting hurt? Jon Gruden sleeping until 5:30 a.m.? I can't tell you what, exactly, but something will transpire. Now you're wondering why I picked St. Louis and Buffalo. I think this the Rams' last stand. Marshall Faulk and his weak knees are getting old. Faulk is smart enough to be a general manager someday, if he wants to be one, but I think this will be the last high-impact year he'll have as a player. I believe in Kurt Warner more than the average St. Louisan. However, two things worry me about the Rams: Orlando Pace and the secondary. Pace's constant holdouts have become divisive; he'll give St. Louis this year and then who knows? I think defensive coordinator Lovie Smith will figure out a way to get enough pressure from his defensive front. Regarding the Bills: New additions Jeff Posey and Takeo Spikes will make the linebackers group a premier one. Cornerback Antoine Winfield will emerge as a real star. The offense will be more balanced, by far, than any in its division. Running back Travis Henry will be reliable and great. An anonymous offensive line will hold up. Here are my picks for the 2003 season, with records and a wisenheimer crack about each team (* = wild-card winner ): EAST 1. Buffalo, 10-6: Henry gains 1,793 yards. Fumbles twice. Gets traded. 2. N.E, 9-7: I still don't know how the Pats will run the ball. 3. Miami, 9-7: Fantasy owners who passed on Ricky Williams are loons. . N.Y. Jets, 6-10: Boo birds strafe rookie Dewayne Robertson by Columbus Day. NORTH 1. Pittsburgh, 11-5: Tommy Maddox: Comeback Player of the Decade. . Baltimore, 8-8: Good move, Coach Billick. Kyle Boller is the man to play at QB. . Cleveland, 7-9: Kelly Holcomb's a stud. Courtney Brown, Gerard Warren aren't. . Cincinnati, 5-11: The problem is, Marvin Lewis doesn't actually suit up. SOUTH . Indianapolis, 10-6: No conviction. Just a gut feeling that coach Tony Dungy fixes the D. . Tennessee, 9-7: Anyone seen Jevon Kearse? He's a little important. . Jacksonville, 8-8: My money's on QB David Garrard to start six or seven games. . Houston, 4-12: Doomed by a bad running game and offensive line. WEST . Denver, 10-6: Jake Plummer starts slow, finishes very fast. MVP fast. . Oakland, 9-7: I question whether Rich Gannon can stay upright again. . Kansas City, 7-9: To my colleague Paul Zimmerman: I don't see it, Doctor. . San Diego, 7-9: David Boston becomes the first 400-pound wideout ever. Wild-card round: Denver 19, Miami 9. ew England 30, Indianapolis 21 Divisional round: Denver 22, Pittsburgh 21 uffalo 20, New England 17 AFC Championship: Buffalo 27, Denver 17 East 1. Philadelphia, 12-4: Ever heard of L.J. Smith? You will, 70 catches from now. 2. N.Y. Giants, 9-7: Wear some armor, Tiki Barber. You'll touch the ball 350 times. . Washington, 6-10: Patrick Ramsey looks like a 56 percent passer to me. . Dallas, 5-11: Bill Parcells would kill for a 56 percent passer. North . Green Bay, 9-7: The Pack is too tough for this weak division. . Minnesota, 8-8: DT Chris Hovan: The league's next weirdo superstar. . Chicago, 6-10: I am officially throwing out the first Nick Saban rumor. . Detroit, 4-12: Bad sign: Steve Mariucci is mainlining Grecian Formula. South . Tampa Bay, 10-6: So many huge games finally take a toll. Somehow. 2. Carolina, 10-6: That's right. The kitties grow claws. I love that defense. . Atlanta, 9-7: Early loss to Carolina, minus Michael Vick, is death knell. . New Orleans, 7-9: Saints buy Warren Sapp after the season. West . St. Louis, 11-5: Warner was 22 of 24 against Buffalo and Tampa Bay this summer. . Seattle, 8-8: CB Shawn Springs' injury takes its toll on 'Hawks. . S.F., 8-8: Can't forget that defensive effort in playoffs against the Giants. . Arizona, 5-11: Sleeper fantasy pick, folks: WR Anquan Boldin. Wild-card round Tampa Bay 20, Giants 14. arolina 16, Green Bay 12. Divisional round: Carolina 17, Philadelphia 16. t. Louis 30, Tampa Bay 24. NFC Championship: St. Louis 9, Carolina 7. SUPER BOWL: St. Louis 28, Buffalo 20. And now for my picks. MVP: Jake Plummer, quarterback, Denver. WHAT THE F**K? Offensive player of the year: Ricky Williams, running back, Miami. Defensive player of the year: Rosevelt Colvin, linebacker, New England. Defensive rookie of the year: Calvin Pace, defensive end, Arizona. Offensive rookie of the year: (tie) Onterrio Smith, running back, Minnesota; Teyo Johnson, tight end, Oakland. Coach of the year: John Fox, Carolina. "We talked about fighting the first day of training camp. It's an intolerable offense."
I'll agree with the Texans still having a bad O-line, but our running game won't be as bad as this guy thinks. Yes, I know you need a good line to have good running, but we upgraded our RB's quite a bit.
What a terrible idiot. Not picking the team he considers best because teams have had trouble repeating in the past? That speaks for parity, more than anything else. If Tampa Bay has, say, a 12% chance of winning it, then that might still be best, despite it being still relatively low. Moreover, injuries happen to most teams that hurt their chances. The odds aren't significantly higher for a Super Bowl winner than any other. Even the stat he mentions actually goes against his own argument. he mentions that only 3 times in the past 24 years has a team repeated. Guess what boys and girls? That's actually not too bad given the size and parity in the league. The bottom line: in the NFL, the odds are against everyone. Injuries devastate everyone, and parity has equalized the playing field. But the best team is more likely than any other to win, regardless... even if it's nowhere near odds-on.
The people at S.I. are insane. How in the hell will Teyo Johnson get rookie of the year and most of the touches will go to Rice,Porter,Brown, and Garner?
For some strange reason, i don't agree with his report. Still think Tampa Bay is going back. For some reason, i think new england is going back even though the running game is shaky, they still have good wide-outs and a nasty defense. Just my opinion.
