I think Rockets fans forgot the days when Rudy would start Kenny Smith and bring Sam Cassell off the bench, but then go with either one of those two to close the game depending on who was having a better game. And these were two PGs that had won championships. If there are nights where Beverly is going to match up better defensively or he is changing the game because of his energy and because he is making his shots, I have absolutely no problem with him closing the games. For Lin to be the ABSOLUTE closer he has to prove that he can be consistent. You guys are asking that he get star treatment, but he is not a star. When he is, he will be the closer by default. I have seen Asik and Parsons riding the pine in the 4th quarter as well, so Lin isnt being singled out. The only player that you cannot afford to sit in the 4th is Harden, simply because of how much offense rides on him. And this is despite his invisible defense.
What a stupid post. If the Rockets pay Lin 8M and then don't think he can play in the last quarter, they should trade him.
Awesome post! Definitely changed my perspective. People have to realize there is a whole staff of coaches in the bench with McHale. Even though he is making the final choice, people should realize your point. On the bench, Lin and Asik were cheering as much as the other guys as well. Team game, team win, team loss.
star treatment is saying that your starting pg should finish games particularly when they played well? or that you shouldn't have your back up pg playing 15 minutes straight when it was clear that the offense had bogged down & harden needed help. or I dont know that your best defender should be on the court in close situations. is star treatment demanding that we get the most out of two 25 million dollar investments. holy crap.
will if by close games you mean within 7 points than his winning percentage is 40% (8 wins and 12 losses). the one caveat is that this record may contain a few wins and losses coached by Kelvin. But I suspect they are the same beast with two heads.
If the team had won while he was benched, then yes he should play. If the team had lost while he played, then yes he should be benched. Hope that helped.
Lin need to prove his consistency? It proves you all don't know basketball. Players can play consistently because the team plays around him. Delfino had off-night when he missed 3 pts. Harden may come back in the 4Q when the team let him shoot to get hot.
Because hes an offensive liability, he had missed 100% of the Rocket's missed freethrows (7) that game. If we had inserted him into the lineup, dallas would have played hack-a-asik and sent him to the ft line every posession....
Great point about Parsons. The only untouchable player on the Rockets when it comes to closing time is Harden. As I said, my objection is not to the idea that occasionally, Bev should close out games, but that Bev should/will be the starter over Lin based on... well, nothing at all, really. I guess Bev was really good in Russia? LOL
I would say that this analysis potentially suffers in several areas - most notably "The Flaw of Averages." (Great book by the way) When looking at summary statistics, such as overall +/-, you can often obscure what the data says. In a flaw-of-averages case, you end-up drawing the opposite conclusion. Two recommendations would be to look at the individual game points instead of summarizing and to include other relevant stats (again individually) like turnovers. Turnovers late in games can really hurt in a close game. Also, the final margin is probably less relevant than the margin at the beginning of crunch time. For instance, in your analysis if Lin entered at 5:00 left in the 4th Rockets up by two, and the final outcome was Rockets lost by 8. Your analysis would not include that game.
I would also like to see how sensitive the data is to the definition of "close game," i.e., comparing the stats when "close" means up or down x, where x varies from 1 to 6. The strategy could be very different if it is a two-possession game or if the team needs to score a three-pointer.
Like i wrote before . That line up with beverly was working in the 4th until harden came in. Beverly harden combo is still work in progress. It was too risky a move. They should gone back to starters.
These stats incorporate the use of PER, which is a deeply flawed stat in itself http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/2012/04/03/the-dirty-little-secret-of-per/ Its major flaws are that it rewards volume shooting (which Lin does not do), and does not account for team defense whatsoever (which Lin is 2nd best on that team at). A more accurate stat used to evaluate a player's impact on the team is xrapm, or rapm (which are no longer updated anywhere), but at about the midway point, Lin was top 50-60 in the league, and 3rd on the team behind Harden and Asik.
On previous pages I showed that Harden, Parsons, Asik and Delfino all have better +/- when Lin is on the bench and/or when Beverley is on the floor. The 82games stats agree with those +/- numbers.
