Series Preview [long]

Breakdown:

Point Guard - Aaron Brooks/Kyle Lowry versus Steve Blake/Sergio Rodriguez/Jerryd Bayless:

The point guard matchup is undoubtedly the X-factor in this series, as it will probably go overlooked with the lack of starpower at the position. Aaron Brook's inconsistency as a starter for the Rockets recently has left many saying that Lowry is deserving of the starting job... I disagree. One of the great things about Adelman and the use of his bench is that he does an excellent job of going with the hot hand on any given night. So in the end, if AB isn't playing with confidence, which I believe is the reason he struggles from time to time, Adelman has shown no restraint in playing Lowry the majority of the game and in crunch time. AB must be more aggressive on the offensive end and look to penetrate more because his quickness is unmatched by the Blazers' duo. When the Rockets are able to get in the bonus early in quarters, I would love to see Lowry out there because he continues to impress with his ability to draw fouls and get to the line. Late in close games, especially on the road, both Rockets' point guards seem to lose a bit of restraint and forget to control the tempo, which will inevitably play a factor in the series.

On the defensive end, I like this matchup for the Rockets. Brooks has really struggled defensively against the bigger point guards like Derrick Rose and Derron Williams, but neither of Portland's guards come close to matching what those two can do on the offensive end. Blake does a great job of controlling the tempo and methodically running the offense for Portland throughout the entire game, and he's also really improved his 3-point shot this season by going 43% from long-range. Rodriguez and Bayless are much better penetrators than Blake, but lack the long-range skill and experience of Blake. Their quickness and energy are effective off the bench, I think Lowry's toughness mitigates that. Keep in mind that Blake is one of the only Blazers to have previously appeared in a playoff game although his playoff experience is minimal. Advantage: Rockets

Shooting Guard/Small Forward - Artest/Battier/Wafer versus Roy/Outlaw/Fernandez/Batum:

Artest's road woes have got to change for the Rockets to steal one of the first two games in Portland. While we love Ron for his intensity and aggression, he really hurts the Rockets on the offensive end when he tries to take over with jump shots. Memories of Vernon Maxwell go rushing through my head when I watch this guy play sometimes for some obvious reasons... yes, they both went into the stands and punched fans in the face, but at least Artest did it on the road... but also their ability to catch fire from long range and their teammates really seem to feed off of their energy. Artest can punish Roy offensively by using his strength to get to the basket and grab offensive rebounds, but the Rockets can't expect to win with him jacking **** up from the outside. He's got to play within the offense and when the ball is moving like Adelman plans for it to, he gets much easier shots. Battier has played great both at home and on the road towards the end of the season. He lets the offense come to him, knows his role, and executes. He's shown the ability to diversify his 3-point shooting away from just his usual corner three and does a great job of looking for Yao in the post. Wafer has played similar to AB on the road -- very inconsistent. The Rockets need his aggressiveness off the bench, so I'm not telling him to stop shooting. He just tends to attack the basket more at home and we could use the same on the road. I don't see the pressure of the moment getting to him though and love to see him on the court at the end of games.

Defensively, this is a great matchup for the Rockets. The other team's superstar plays the position where the Rockets have two lockdown defenders. While I don't expect Bartest to completely shut him down, I do expect them to neutralize him more than most people think. Throwing a mixture of two fresh bodies after Roy could cause him problems from a fatigue standpoint if the series goes long. At the same time though, Roy plays like such a veteran, moreso than Artest at least. He has come through all season long for them, especially in the clutch as the Rockets know firsthand, and there's no reason we should expect him to lay any sort of egg. However, the Rockets must neutralize to some extent the effect that Roy has on his teammates. Like most of the great ones, he makes the rest of the players on the court around him better, but the Rockets' team defense is unmatched... during the regular season at least. I can see the Blazers going with a small lineup that puts Aldridge at center on Yao, so it forces him to defend the pick n' roll on defense with Roy playing the role of Derron Williams. Although Roy may lack the quickness of Derron, he's creativity to get his own s hot and find good shots for his teammates is drastically underrated. Outlaw doesn't worry me too much because he tends to settle for jump shots way more than he should. With his athleticism he should be getting to the rack much more, but if the Rockets can keep him settling and put a hand in his face I don't see him posing any real problem. Fernandez is a stud off the bench for the Blazers and could be an all-star in the years to come with the potential he's got. His athleticism and sniping ability from long-range could pose a huge problem to the Rockets' second unit. He fires his teammates up with his energy, and the Rockets' must match that with the likes of Wafer and Artest. The Rockets' must control him from the outside and he has killed opponents all season from three-point land who have tried to double team Aldridge down low. Batum is young swingman originally drafted by the Rockets who's athleticism is also insane. However, he is very inexperienced and raw and I don't see him being too much of a factor in the series. Advantage: Blazers

Frontcourt - Scola/Landry/Hayes/Yao versus Aldridge/Frye/Oden/Pryzbilla:

Scola struggled mightily in Dallas, both offensively and defensively. Yet, he very rarely post back-to-back bad games because he plays so damn hard. I don't see the Rockets going to him in the post much this series with the taller Aldridge on him, but he needs to still get his offense from offensive rebounds and hitting the open 18 foot jumpshot from the baseline or above the free-throw line. He's an excellent finisher around the rim, and is a great complement to Yao in that he always seems to be in the right place down low that gives Yao room to operate but also puts him in the position to get an open layup if they help on Yao or get an offensive rebound off a miss. Landry was the sole bright spot in the fourth quarter for the Rockets in Dallas, scoring the team's only three baskets of the quarter. Although he lacks some of the skills in the low-post that Scola has, his ability to play above the rim and athleticism will be huge from a matchup perspective against this young Portland team that's loaded with leapers. Now to the abundantly obvious key to the series for our beloved Rockets... Yao on the offensive end. At risk of stating the obvious, in order for this team to advance in the playoffs, the offense needs to run through Yao pretty much whenever he's in the game. It is pretty standard for the Rockets to open up by going to Yao consistently in the first 5 minutes or so of the game, and he routinely puts up a good number of first quarter points because of this. Adelman has to get on the guys in the second half when they start to drift from the offensive strategy. He's done a much better job of staying out of foul trouble this year and that trend must continue against Portland. Their lack of a center with a low-post game should help that cause. Yao's lack of touches are both a result of improper spacing by the guys around him, and Yao not being aggressive enough at holding his position down low or reestablishing when the defense chooses to front. Although teams have been successful fronting Yao in the past, it has primarily been with smaller and quicker power forwards (see Brandon Bass from last game). With Oden or Pryzbilla in the game, I doubt Portland's ability to effectively front Yao because I'm not sure those guys have the agility needed to front the big fella. Again, I could potentially see Portland go with Aldridge at the 5 on the defensive end as well because I think he's better suited for them to front on defense. This has been the achiles heel of the Rockets with Yao for some time now... how to counter the fronting defense. As Adelman puts it, the solution is simple, guys need to move the ball. Well it's not that easy, but when the Blazers are fronting him that means the weak side should be where the Rockets offense comes from. I'd love to see the Rockets swing it and have Yao establish position on the opposite block with a backscreen involved to free up space, or God forbid they try the lob pass. The fronting defense should also free up Battier for his beloved corner three all day , and him shooting open three's in rythm is something I'd take all day as a Rockets fan.

On to the defense and Chuck Hayes, who needs to do only two things well all series A) not touch the ball on offense, even if it is one of his quasi-hook shot type layups from two feet that always clank off the rim and B) bother LaMarcus Aldridge on defense. Hayes has had great success defending the taller, lankier 4's in this league with his underrated strength. I really think he could be a big factor this series because Aldridge is playing stellar basketball of late, and I don't see Scolandry being able to slow him. Aldridge is a rising star in this league with a sweet touch for a 7-footer, but if Hayes can handle him how he handles Nowitzki I like my chances. Scola can't afford to get into foul trouble against Aldridge because he's too important on the boards and offensively. Landry's defense is a bit of a concern to me because he tends to take too many chances and at 6'7" a taller guy like Aldridge can shoot over him very easily. Oden and Pryzbilla get most of their points off of tip-ins and dunks, so I'm not really concerned about Yao handling them from a back-to-the-basket standpoint. However, Yao has got to try and keep these guys off of the boards. Both are excellent rebounders, so Yao just needs to make sure that he takes care of the defensive glass. I'd also like to see him get both of them in foul trouble, as Oden commits more fouls per 48 minutes than any other player in the league (Thank you Bill Simmons). The Rockets frontcourt is much more skilled offensively with the likes of Yao, Landry, and Scola -- who are all capable of posting 20 point games -- but I only see Aldridge with that sort of potential on Portland's end. Advantage: Rockets

Prediction: Rockets in 6 games

I think the Rockets steal one of the first two in Portland, and then go 3-0 at home to close the series. I don't see the Rockets winning if the series goes seven games primarily because this team tends to put too much pressure on itself. When you have a young team like Portland, there's a chance that they could come out fearless and play like they have nothing to lose because people are discounting them, which can be dangerous for a polar opposite team like the Rockets who carries the weight of the world on their shoulders. My prediction comes down to matchups though -- and I see a big advantage to the Rockets on the frontcourt, especially on the offensive end. The Rockets point guards are much more talented, but they are yet to consistently show their ability to close out games the proper way, so they remain a bit of a wild-card. Although I'm not convinced that Bartest can shut down Roy, I think they can keep him in check by limiting his ability to create shots for his teammates. When Artest plays within the offense, which seems more hopeful than likely at this point, the Rockets are simply a better team that is built to win in the playoffs. Let's hope the negative momentum from Wednesday's game doesn't carry over; and I don't expect it to with a veteran leadership group like the Rockets who have been in this poisition before. Here's hoping for a reverse of the first round curse... Let the games begin.

 

I'm not so optimistic about potentially beating the Lakers. Let's get there first.

 

appreciate the response DD...

My thoughts with the lob were -- why not try something we haven't to counter the front? Because clearly what we've tried hasn't worked. That being said, I probably only trust Shane to consistently make that pass.