[Sean Deveney] Will Dwight Howard force a Lakers sign-and-trade?

Jack is a free agent backup pg. better defender and clutch shooter than Lin and cheaper in dollars than CP3. Jack's number for the season 13 ppg on at clip of 45 fg% and 5.5 assist as a backup. In the playoffs his number went up in scoring to 17 a games.

Basically the same numbers as Lin with more heart on the floor. 30 years old so sign him to a 2 or 3 year deal. 2 years older than CP3 but CP3 misses at least 10 to 15 games a year because of his knee which is the kinda condition that get's worst over time. CP3 can be argued because he is a superstar, but if Lin has to go to bring in D12 Jack would be a upgrade in my eyes.

In a win now, situation I go Jack over Lin depending on the price we can get him at.

 

Beverley is ideal - - for his role, for his minutes. Lin may not be ideal as a running mate for Harden but really seems to be a good kid with a nice future. I believe he will put in the work and that he and The Beard (oh, and the coaching staff) will figure it out.

Jack has matured into a guy who just might be a good running mate with Harden but GSW is not letting him walk. He just fits right right where he's at.

Would CP3 be the right guy here? Maybe, he'd be the right guy most any place. But he's not leaving Clipperville (unless he and DHoHo really truly want to reinvent Atlanta; yes that is strictly my opinion, but defensible).

All this (dead part of off season) conversation because a poor excuse for a career hoops writer e-penned a ridiculous piece with zero cred. Devaney is the writing equivalent of the Bucks' backcourt but without the flash.

JSmoothe is a Rocket. If DHoHo sezso. They're buds, right? But they don't share an agent, so what does that really mean? I dunno.

 

Lin is probably more than someone who may have simply "a nice future," which is what stats guru Nate Silver pointed out when he ran the numbers from Linsanity 1.0.:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/11/jeremy-lin-is-no-fluke/

For those who never saw him play, "Fat" Lever was a very productive player who made 2 All-Star teams.

There is nothing to suggest Patrick Beverley has anything close to Jeremy Lin's ceiling as a player. As Silver points out, the first four times Lin played more than 24 minutes in his career, he put up big numbers. These numbers:

25/05/07
28/02/08
23/04/10
38/04/07

The first four times Patrick Beverley played more than 24 minutes in his career he put up these numbers:

05/05/02 -- 2/13/13 against LA Clippers
09/03/01 -- 3/27/13 against Indiana Pacers
09/05/03 -- 3/29/13 against Memphis Grizzlies
11/04/04 -- 4/21/13 against OKC Thunder

Really no comparison there. I am thrilled that we got Patrick Beverley, but there is no evidence to date that he has the kind of talent Lin has. I very seriously doubt you will ever see Beverley put up the kinds of top-end numbers which Lin has already put up in his young career.

Again, and this is really important to understand, basically all of what Beverley did in the OKC series came not against starter Russell Westbrook (at least not a healthy Westbrook), but instead against a 22-year-old, second-year backup in Reggie Jackson. That is far, far different than Lin putting up 29/6/7 against a healthy Westbrook. And just to help further the point, Lin also had 7 of Houston's final 11 points in that OKC comeback win. He is a proven clutch player already in his young career.

Let's also remember that Lin's knee was supposedly not up to 100% strength until this March. Which is why the April stats may be particularly useful to look at for him. As his knee got back to full power, he started putting up bigger numbers. And we know he is capable of even bigger numbers, like the 38/3/7 against the Spurs, 28/1/9 against the Warriors, and the 29/6/7 against the Thunder.

People say "Lin isn't consistent." No, he's not. Neither is a player like JR Smith, who had something of a big breakout season this year. If Lin were consistently putting up the huge numbers he's capable of, he'd already be a superstar. He's not there yet, and likely never will be. But many good players in the league, like Smith, aren't consistent. Most third-year players, particularly ones on a new team and coming off of a serious leg injury, aren't going to be consistent yet.

Now, in terms of what I said about teams preparing for Lin and not preparing for Beverley, here's an example of what I mean.

Patrick Beverley not facing a lot of opponent preparation:

http://newsok.com/oklahoma-city-thu...erley-gets-thunders-attention/article/3795991

That was Derek Fisher after Game 1 of the OKC/HOU series. What those words imply are:

* OKC was not keying on Beverley coming into the series
* OKC may not have viewed Beverley as "a good player" coming into the series
* OKC may not have been "aware" of Patrick Beverley coming into the series

So, as I pointed out previously, it's a different world when your opponent specifically works to take you out of a game. Beverley has faced very little of that in his short NBA career. And when he does face it, if he ever does, expect his numbers to come down.

Lin, on the other hand, has already gone through the "now you're on the scouting report" treatment:

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/b...ked-man-nba-birth-linsanity-article-1.1036649

Here's another example of that opponent attention focused on Lin:

http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/knicks/pg_takes_out_of_dallas_GCT9DTOuuPwaxU7lX1U4vN

In contrast, don't expect to see Shawn Marion guarding Patrick Beverley for any extended minutes in the near future.

In summary, then, Patrick Beverley has not shown the same level of ability which Jeremy Lin has demonstrated in his career. There is presently no reason to think Patrick Beverley has anything close to Lin's ceiling.

Beverley is not at the same point in his career as Lin is, in the sense that Beverley has never been a primary focus of an opponents defense. Lin has already gone through that process.

Finally, once Lin overcame his knee issue he started to put up larger numbers again. In a new system, with a new team, etc.

A great way to understand the difference between Patrick Beverley and Jeremy Lin, at least to this point in their careers, is to examine what each of them did when they "got the ball" handed to them. That is where the stats above when each player first got 25 minutes or more of playing time come into play.

Beverley was cleared for take-off in the OKC series after Game 1 and particularly after Game 2. No Lin, no Westbrook. He struggled in Game 3 (6/2/3 vs Jackson's 14/2/1), was good in Game 4 (16/4/3 vs Jackson's 18/4/3), got lit-up in the 4th quarter of Game 5 and got thoroughly outplayed, at home, in elimination Game 6 (8/3/0 vs Jackson's 17/7/8). He had his "Linsanity" shot, and he didn't seize it. And he had his shot against a second-year, 22-year-old backup.

Jeremy seized his shot. And that's why he is who he is and Patrick Beverley is not, at least not at this point of his career.

I like Patrick Beverley a lot. He's vastly superior to Toney Douglas. He seems to have real potential. But not necessarily Lin-level potential.

All of this reinforces what I said earlier in the thread: Beverley is absolutely not someone -- not at this stage of his career, anyways -- you're going to feel comfortable with to replace Jeremy Lin. You're not likely to get the same production. So, the idea that Houston will just decide to part ways with Lin because they're feeling good about Beverley makes essentially no sense at all based upon the statistical evidence.

Morey knows this. Alexander knows this. I'm sure of that.

As I said before, if Lin is going to go this summer it's going to take something significant to pry him free. Not a nebulous "we'll free up some cap room and see what happens down the line." That's not going to do it. Is a "let's clear a bit more cap room to sign Josh Smith to a bigger deal so we can land Howard" scenario enough to do it? I doubt it. My guess would be that Alexander and/or Morey would either move another piece first or else try to get Smith to sign for slightly less. But we'll see. Unless Chris Paul is coming to Houston, I have a very hard time believing Jeremy Lin won't be a Rocket next year. And a starting Rocket, to boot.

So, if you dislike Jeremy Lin and are hoping that these latest rumors are the beginning of the end of Lin's starter days in Houston, I would caution you to curb your enthusiasm. Ditto for those who think Beverley "earned" the starting role because of a few games against OKC in the first round of the playoffs.

The statistics don't support you. And my guess is that Les Alexander does not support you, either. At least not based upon what Alexander has said and what people seem to feel is Alexander's view of Lin.

There is a staggering level of disconnect between how some fans view Lin and what Lin has already produced in his three-year career. It's somewhat surprising, if not disturbing. There seems to be a particular crowd of people who want to put Lin into the "fluke" box no matter how many times he has shown that isn't where he fits.

My guess is that, in time, those notions will become disabused. Lin is for real, and as long as he stays healthy, we're well past the point where the metaphorical genie is going to be able to be put back into the bottle.

 

Can't give him a full max

 

Why does everybody call Josh Smith, J-Smooth? Its J-Smoove, fellas.

 

OK, we are on the same page here, yes? You were taking a quote to make your point more effectively, yes?

As I said before, if Lin is going to go this summer it's going to take something significant to pry him free. Not a nebulous "we'll free up some cap room and see what happens down the line."

...Unless Chris Paul is coming to Houston, I have a very hard time believing Jeremy Lin won't be a Rocket next year. And a starting Rocket, to boot.

There are scenaria other than Paul's emigration to Rocketown USA in which Jeremy Lin could leave. I do not anticipate it; I just believe other arrivals other than Paul might trigger said move. Who?

 

Jarrett Jack is not a bad player. He's not a great player, but he's not a bad player. Over the course of the season, he actually produced similar to Jeremy Lin.

And then you take into account that he's 29 years old, and last season was by far his best (and probably his career peak). And that Lin actually started out horribly and ended strong to get to the same production as Jack.

 

Solid, balanced well-reasoned post. Repped.

 

Fair enough. And, yes, I was taking a quote to make my point more effectively. :grin:

 

Why does everyone clamor for Chris Paul? The man is a real ball hog. D.Jordan and Blake Griffin both have complaints about working with him. He has a controlling personality in the locker room and wouldn't mesh well with Harden who came here to be the leader. Also despite all the praise about him being the "number one" point guard, what has he actually accomplished in his career? Never even been close to the NBA finals. Hell, the Clippers got bounced in the playoff first round this year with a team that CP3 had a major voice in constructing.

 

You do know Jack came off the bench right...???

He was not a starter...

When you start comparing our starting point guard to another teams back up point guard, that means our starting point guard has issues.

 

Thanks.

 

Or the people comparing them have issues

 

uhh...or it is just a bad comparison. Jack has been in the league for more than 3x the amount of time Lin has. As someone else stated, Jack's peaked while you definitely cannot say the same for Lin (or you at least can't be nearly as certain as you can about Jack).

But in a direct comparison, on its face it looks like they're pretty similar across the board...yet Jack was primarily facing bench players while Lin was not. Don't forget that when you consider what might have been required of him.

If your argument is Jack did not spend too much time playing bench players and was really more of a starter...then that sort of takes away the crux of your earlier argument about Jack only being a bench player, etc.

 

Jarrett Jack played 2349 minutes in 79 games, for an average of 29.7 MPG.
Jeremy Lin played 2640 minutes in 82 games, for an average of 32.2 MPG.

Try looking a little deeper then who happened to be the guy who walked onto the court first.

You know who else wasn't a "starter"? Manu Ginobli. Lamar Odom. J.R. Smith. James Harden.

If you're not going to bother trying to address any of the actual points being made, then no one is going to take your posts seriously. This kind of perpetual hand-waving of illusory observations ("Jack wasn't a starter and Lin was therefore Lin is bad!") just makes it clear that you are biased and not looking for a meaningful discussion.

I'm not going to denigrate Jack just because I think Lin is better. Jack is a good player overall, particularly given the heavy role that was placed on him with the Warriors and the relatively low expectations that were placed on him. That being said, he has plenty of holes in his game (personally I find his last name of "Jack" to be very appropriate for his shooting decisions), and at his age and experience you can't expect him to get any better after having a career/lucky year. Lin, on the other hand, is clearly on his way up after a poor start to last season.

You know what's sad? I bet you get pissed off when all those crazy "LOF" show up and spout nonsense facts, crap over everyone not named Lin, and generally make idiots out of themselves in an attempt to make Lin look better. Well now you're doing the exact same thing, except in reverse. What, Jarrett Jack is now a crappy basketball player because he's being compared to Lin?

Get a grip.

 

Beverley might not have been the focus of an NBA team's defense but he sure was in Russia as he was the best player on his team. I think Beverley has more potential for his career than you are giving him credit for. I don't think he has the ceiLINg as Lin but I think he could be a capable starter. In the event that you get Josh Smith and Dwight Howard, having a starting PG that can defend and shoot the 3 well and costs you less than $1Mil per year would help you have space to round out the roster elsewhere.

I'm not saying I don't want Lin, but rather giving a different side of the discussion for discussions sake.

I think what you don't want is too many of those "I want to be an All-star" types on a team. As you can probably see, most teams that have all-stars need great role players. The rebounders, the tough nose defenders, the stretch the floor shooters, without these everybody is trying to get his and it usually doesn't work.

 

Very good post. Thank you. Enjoyed reading Nate Silver's article. Thought he only did baseball and politics. Love reading his statistical analysis, always very poignant.

 

Jesus dude, you're sensitive about Jeremy Lin. And you act as though you're a close personal friend of Les Alexander.

Look, my argument is not based on if Patrick Beverly is better than Jeremy Lin. The point is that you can get similar, or close enough to similar production and a better fit from Beverly, Brooks, Steve Blake, Jarret Jack, or other veteran PG for less money. This will allow you the extra cap space to bring in key veteran reserves to support a championship run. I like Lin and think he'll develop into solid PG for years to come but if you have Harden, Smith, and Howard you are in a win now mode and you've got to have the supporting veteran role players to support that.

And Fair Dinkum, I read your posts about having cap space to keep Lin with Harden, Smith, and Howard and have to say, if that's the bench that we're going to battle with, we are in big trouble. You have to have at least a few solid veterans that won't crumble under pressure.

 

I sure hope that's not our bench next year