How often do future odds hold true? I know winning odds from just the start of the season are rarely ever close to accurate.
Yea I have an extremely hard time using "WAR" for a couple of guys that are nowhere close to the majors yet
Yep. The tweet of "...if the prospects reach their ceilings" was silly. The Astros haul for Pence -- Singleton, Cosart, Reid, and Santana -- was about as good an outcome as we could have hoped. One tweet mentioned the implications for Kazmir, where the team that signs him this year won't have to give up a pick. That piece holds true for the Astros too. While he might have been dealt anyway, if Kazmir is potentially a multi-year target, this trade prevents any additional compensation for signing him.
Love the trade. Kazmir was actually my first choice. Provides a big boost in the second half. Makes a big statement both to the team and the league. Great time to be a Houston sports fan.
Yea that's a great point If Luhnow had already looked at Kazmir as an offseason trade target, giving up Mengden and Nottingham isn't as much as giving up a first rounder next year
We knew adding a pitcher wasn't gonna be free, I can't see how somebody could really dislike this deal. Neither of these 2 are elite prospects, although I do like both of them, that's why you build up the super depth that we have. Kazmir helps us this year. The young duo will hit an innings limit, and now we have a rock solid rotation even when they start being held back. We're serious about this, and I don't think this is a guaranteed rental either. I love the deal.
Fair trade for both teams and yeah, if they sign him the trade looks even better: Kazmir + late 1st round pick for Nottingham and Mengden. Tough to lose Nottingham, but the Stros will address their catcher situation well before he will be ready to help, and there's pretty big questions about him staying behind the plate.
Never. Astros will not be 80% in the playoffs at the end of the year. They either will or won't be in the playoffs. They have error associated with them. The fangraphs playoffs odds are based on its projection system. The fangraphs projection system is within 10 games at beginning of the season about 90% of the time for each team if I recall correctly. I would guess the error is likely within 5 games right now. The fangraphs projection system has the Blue Jays, the team most likely to push the Astros out of the playoffs, 5 games less than the Astros.
With those guys, minus Parra instead RAsmus/Tucker 1. Altuve 2b 2. Correa SS 3. Springer cf 4. Gattis DH 5. Lind 1b 6. Tucker LF 7. Lowrie 3b 8. Rasmus RF 9. Conger C I like Marisnick, and i would play him over Rasmus for defensive purpose but...
Beard bros. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I'll start growing out the beard now! In the mean time, I can grow a mean stache. 1st dinner is on me <a href="https://t.co/3i8a7833pS">https://t.co/3i8a7833pS</a></p>— Scott Kazmir (@scottkazmir19) <a href="https://twitter.com/scottkazmir19/status/624312093370511361">July 23, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
He said they are still looking at all possibilities, including the rotation I would seriously doubt we see a Price deal at this point, but wouldn't count it completely out It's so hard to figure out which prospects other teams actually covet. They aren't always (or even usually) the same ones we covet ourselves. They chose Nottingham and Mendgen over a first round pick. Our system is deep, we might offer Detroit a couple of guys lower on our list while another team offers them two of their top 10 guys, but they might still like ours better . . .you just never know, but having incredible depth in the system makes a lot of things possible
I don't think David Price is coming to the Astros. However I could see the market evaporate some and the Astros get Jeff Samadzjia for a few low level guys or a couple guys with limited upside. The other possibility is the Astros strike a deal for some under long term control like Ross in San Diego. I do think they get a power arm for pen if the price isn't too high. Maybe Johnson from Atlanta or one of the really effective middle relievers.
