Do those countries with waivers purchase Iran's oil in US dollars or are they allowed other currency/trade options? Anyone know?
Skimming the comments posted so far, I don't believe anyon mentioned the Saudi Arabia / China card. If I were a member of the House of Saud and concluded that further alliance with the United States was no longer in the country's best interests -- and assuming the House is as unsettled by Iran's leadership as it claims -- then I would strike an agreement trading oil (which China lacks) for protection (which S.A. needs). The trick for the Saudis would be in keeping China's military off their soil.
I remember reading somewhere that the Saudis have been in talks with the Chinese regarding improving relations. The problem though with turning to the PRC instead of the US as an ally is for what end? The Saudi interest to the US isn't just as a market partner but as a military ally. The Chinese aren't capable of projecting power like the US. So if the Saudis wanted the Chinese as allies to replace the US there wouldn't be much point if the Chinese couldn't protect the kingdom and the Persian Gulf the way the US can. Further if the Saudis wanted an ally that wouldn't station troops on their soil that would be difficult for that ally to protect them without doing so.
That "the Chinese aren't capable of projecting power like the U.S." is true for now, but, considering China's ability to steal our technology and their willingness to project their power as opposed to Obama's timid foreign policy, your assessment won't be true for long. China can squeeze North Korea and thereby squeeze Iran's nuclear aspirations. China can also brandish a ground force of upwards of a million soldiers to bully Iran, and they are not all that far away. Both factors surely would appeal to Saudi Arabia. The economic ties between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia preclude these "what ifs" -- for now. For better or worse, the world is an ever changing landscape.
The US wouldn't support the Saudi's if we weren't compelled to by our oil addiction. The Saudi's would oppose the US if they could sell their oil and amass another currency as valuable as the dollar. Were both stuck in this strange relationship. And now it appears there will be an all out proxy war between sects, across multiple nations. Lotta people gon' die.
Well thanks to our policies China is already pretty tight with the Iranian oil. China has the money and will get the oil somewhere.
We could hand the Chinese the plans to the F22 and the Trident nuclear sub and the Chinese still wouldn't be able to project power like the US. The US can project power not just because of advanced technology but because we have built up a whole global infrastructure to do so from the Cold War. Have you seen that Navy commercial that starts out saying that 70% of the world is covered by ocean and 100% of that is covered by the Navy? The Chinese version of that would be "5% of that is covered by the Chinese Navy." The PRC only has one aircraft carrier and they need that to rattle sabres over some rocks in the South China sea, not go and try to protect oil shipping lanes in the Persian Gulf. The fact that the PRC has territorial disputes over rocks in the South China Sea with the likes of the Philippines and Brunei is because they don't have a blue water navy that can take those rocks. It will be decades before the Chinese can build up the type of infrastructure of bases, carrier battle groups, strategic bombers and missile subs to compare to what the US has now. It is also doubtful whether the PRC would even want to do that. Outside of regional disputes they've shown almost no interest in military involvement abroad. The million man People's Liberation Army is impressive but doesn't mean much of a threat to Iran when there isn't a navy capable of deploying them and overland are many countries that aren't that friendly to the PRC. The only weapon that the PRC could really threaten Iran with military is nukes and I doubt even the US would stand by while Chinese ICBM's fell on Tehran. True the world is changing but these "what ifs" of the PRC supplanting the US as a global military hegemon able to provide the same time of security umbrella are very unlikely anytime soon.
During 2007, Iran asked its petroleum customers to pay in non US dollar currencies. By December 8, 2007, Iran reported to have converted all of its oil export payments to non-dollar currencies http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_oil_bourse
