All good questions. Concerning the data point, it depends on whether you take federal spending or state spending or both. That is why there are different numbers and you will see anything from 20% to 35-38%. It is one of those measures that people will play with to reach the conclusion they want. I have seen some conservative sites not include state/local spending at all and I have seen some liberal sites count all spending at every single level. The best way to look at it is that in the USA federal spending is expected to be 60 trillion over the next decade and local/state spending is anticipated to be 30 trillion (this is with the status quo and the absurd tax cuts from Trump). As for OECD the average in Europe is 43% with nations like Finland at 55% and Denmark and Norway at just under 50%. The Sanders plan by estimates would cost just shy of 100 trillion dollars. I have seen numbers from 80 trillion up to 97 trillion. That would increase the US spending to 180 trillion dollars (that includes a 3-4 trillion dollar off set from existing healthcare costs). That would put US spending at over 70% of the GDP. That is well above all the OECD budgets/GDP spending for all the other Western European socialist democracies. That leaves a funding gap of approximately 110 trillion dollars over the next decade. Sanders plan does provide for increased taxes and income to the state in the amount of 25 trillion dollars over the next decade (not a small number) but would leave a serious shortage. The shortage per family? 65 thousand dollars. His job plan and promised employment would mean nearly half the country would have employment paid through the federal or state or local government. Payroll tax rates would double. Tax rates for the upper income would peak at about 80%. To me it is foolish to quibble over 500 billion here or there either way, because the number we would need to reach would be very. His job plan and his spending on the environment are a huge part of his budget spending.
I know that, and it's a big reason why I voted for the more pragmatic Hillary Clinton in the primary in 2016. Bernie promises rainbows & butterflies. Everyone knows that. Which was my point prior with the other poster who didn't really read what I said but acted very non-Jesus like with his retort. Someone who supports Mr. "And Mexico is going to pay for it" shouldn't throw stones at glass houses. Trump fans have no right to chime in on Bernie offering Unicorn shows. I believe a good majority of Bernie's supporters are realistic about that personally. I know there are some true believers, but I think the vast majority of them look at Bernie as a principles guy, and know that he speaks to their values more than they are supporting someone just because they feel like he is a master legislator. When he says "And we are going to get Medicare for All Passed" and they cheer, I believe they are cheering because they simply are happy that if/when he wins he's going to do everything he can to fight for healthcare expansion, and M4A is the gold standard to shoot for although most if you asked them would say that they know it'll be a challenge in the Senate to get passed so they Trust Bernie to sign onto the best bill possible. Also - if you follow Bernie's career in the Senate he's actually way more pragmatic than you'd think. Look no further than his support for the ACA. In the end his supporters know he'll vote the right way, and as president would sign a good law that goes through Congress rather than no law regardless of if it was exactly what he campaigned on.
Right, I agree with that, it's not exactly fair but I'll use this argument for the current generation, Millenials, vs their parents. Being born later was unlucky for them, they are poorer because of the times they were born in. So this argument works for them too, doesn't it? I will add that I'm not opposed to reimbursing those that did pay off their loans, but something needs to be done about the current amount of debt that students have now. I also just don't like the argument that because someone else had it harder, that future generations should also have it harder. I think the reason polls show that even when you ask people that have paid off loan debt they'd still rather see those people released from their loan is because they are thinking of their own children too. At the end of the day though, using this argument means absolutely nothing gets done, because getting something done means slighting a previous generation that had it harder. I mean if you were black in the 1930s in America you had a lot going against you...but does that mean we should stop progress because it would be unfair to people born earlier? I think the main point to make is that this loan debt is having a negative effect on the economy. For no other reason than that something should be done about it.
Now this is interesting, I'm going to further look into the estimates for policies compared to GDP%'s. My initial thought is, as someone who likes to look at what works for the best countries in the world, as someone who supports social democracy, that if Norway/Finland is spending between 50-55% of their GDP, that should be our goal range too. My first skepticism of the numbers is them being inflated due to the federal job guarantee, which is the policy I care the least for amongst Bernie's large plans. But I have to look into it more. Thanks for explaining the GDP/spending ratio relative to federal and state thing.
FWIW, it would be hard but I do believe his proposed tax increases would largely pay for his single payer plan. He has accounted for about 25-30 trillion over 10 years. I have some concerns about the economic long term impact on some of his tax increases but he can get in the ballpark of paying for pay single payer. The raging debate everyone is having is over student loans but that is small in relative terms. His call for 16 trillion for climate change spending and 30 trillion for his jobs bill.... he has another 11 trillion for a number or programs. I think he will have to abandon the amount proposed for climate change (agreeing to a smaller number) and will have to scale back his jobs for all. If you want to reach a 50-55% GDP benchmark, Medicare for all will get you there. National defense can be cut some and some other changes in spending to reach another minor program change. No one wants to discuss it but the deficit really needs to be cut because the interest is costing us programs.
I’ve seen a lot of analogies made with regards to the student loan crisis but they all fall flat IMO. “We shouldn’t cure cancer because that would be unfair to those who died” “We shouldn’t free the slaves because that would be unfair to those slaves who died in bondage” Etc.. etc... None of them are on point. The difference is we cannot do anything for those who died of cancer or died in bondage. We are only talking about money here. We are contemplating giving $1.6 trillion to current student debt holders. We can also make those whole paid their student loans. It’s all very well documented. You’re cutting a check (metaphorical) for the current debt holders? Cut a check for those paid their loans. Make them whole. Just don’t say, “gosh that sucks, oh well human progress and all”
Yeah , that's exactly what I was trying to tell you before .... their plans don't do jack beyond forgive the current debts and limit interest rates to 1.8% .... what about next years graduates or 5-10 years beyond that when the next group is in the same boat ?
Well, if you're down for that then fine. Like I said, I'm not opposed to that if you can get the money to work. What I do know though is that the current loan crises is hurting our economy and so should be addressed.
Don't do that man. Read the whole thing. "neither Warren or Sanders proposes a pure loan forgiveness plan that does nothing for affordable college in the future." Also, you should read their plans in full, they do more than loan forgiveness.
I made the point of the bold a couple days ago somewhere .... just didn't go into detail but I think we agree completely here. As for no one underwriting those loans - The gubmint cant just come in and erase the loan , those financial institutions who underwrote those loans will get their money as it would be completely and totally outside the scope of government to act in any way in which those institutions don't come away fulfilled. Just isn't constitutional. No way no how. So realizing "someone's gonna pay" .... figure out who's gonna pay it. Now lets realize that there just aint that damn many billionaires and you aren't taxing their wealth , you are taxing their earnings and even if you tax them at 70% it doesn't add up to enough to cover all this crap. Elon Musk was the top paid individual in 2018 at $513million so a top rate of 70% only nets the gubmint $359.1million Taxing Billionaires isn't going to come anywhere close to the figures required to pay for all this stuff .... those that believe otherwise Fail At Math.
You are correct that the analogies you listed fall VERY flat. Nobody chooses to have cancer. Nobody chose to be a slave. Anyone who takes out a loan for college chooses to do so.
And anyone who decides to serve the military chooses to do so also and it would be an absurd notion to force people who chose to serve to sign 50 grand in loans to serve the country. I think we just have entirely different paradigms on what education means. For me, a person pursing higher education is serving this country similar to someone who is serving in the military. The education they obtain helps in the founders goal such as Jefferson for a more informed electorate. That is just as important of a mission as defending the nation in my opinion.
If Bernie gets the nomination and wins the election the stock market will tank early. I will use that opportunity to buy low because it will rebound in a huge way. It's a chance to make nice profit.
To say we have different paradigms on this subject is an understatement and since you brought up the military I will thank you once again for your service to the country.
lol. that works for me! I must say I always appreciate your witty responses on this forum. They almost always bring a smile to my face. Have a good day!
