Wow. This post proves you know nothing about football... Eli got LUCKY twice!?!? Wtf are you talking about? How tf do you get lucky by making runs as a wild card seed to the Super Bowl and end up beating the golden boy of football twice! One of those years they looked un-fukin-stoppable at 16-0 to end the regular season... Yet Eli got LUCKY and beat those guys. Dumb just dumb. Yet you consider Mike Vick whom is being replaced by a 3rd round guy in Nick Foles. Please do yourself a favor and stop posting in these threads. Everything depends on the guy that you pick #1 overall. Can you imagine if the Colts would have taken Leaf instead of Peyton that year? The destiny of the franchises would have been vastly swapped. Its not that easy just to say, " chances are... they'll bust!" No it doesn't work like that.
Eli did get Lucky... He closes his eyes when he throws... Lol.. And Vick was elite once upon a time and would have been much better if he took his job and life more serious. I'm not talking about right now... Duhhhh...!!!
Number of QBs drafted by their current teams in the playoffs the last 5 years. QBs acquired by other means in parentheses. NOTE: "Technically", Eli Manning was drafted by San Diego and Phillip Rivers was drafted by the Giants, but the deal to swap picks was in place before the draft so I'm not counting that. 2013: 9/12 (Manning, Brees, Smith) 2012: 10/12 (Manning, Schaub) 2011: 10/12 (Brees, Schaub) 2010: 7/12 (Brees, Vick, Hasselbeck, Cutler, Cassel) 2009: 8/12 (Brees, Favre, Warner, Romo?) Total 44/60 = 73%. Manning/Brees = 10%. Everybody else = 17%. The Saints and Broncos were EXTREMELY lucky to get Brees and Manning. Manning's health was in question and his future as a QB was uncertain. If he never gets injured, there's no way Indy lets him go. New Orleans benefited from San Diego drafting another future Pro Bowler in Rivers in 2004. With Brees' contract coming up first, they didn't have a need to re-sign him, and if they did then they would've let Rivers go and somebody would've gotten a future Pro Bowler regardless. These two things do not happen often. Waiting for something like this to happen as a method of addressing the QB situation is idiotic. But I guess we can hope that RG3's injury affects him so much that the Redskins end up cutting him and then he can find new life with us. Note that the only non Manning/Brees to appear twice on that list is Matt Schaub. Think about that. The two best backups in recent memory that I can recall being TRADED and succeeding are Matt Schaub and Matt Hasselbeck.
Alright sit down, here's a lesson for you (and many others in this forum): One day you go into the gas station, and the friendly attendant offers you free lotto tickets! He offers you two choices: 1 lotto ticket OR 100 lotto tickets Easy choice right?? The more tickets you have, the higher chance you have of winning the lottery. Duh... BUT, the attendant shows you the history of past lottery winners--more often than not, the winners just happened to have only bought ONE ticket. Clearly having 100 tickets doesn't give you an advantage huh? And so, confused, you choose 1 lotto ticket... Ahem, so every time you and everyone else bring up this whole "first round QBs have a history being busts and I can name a few awesome QBs that were picked in later rounds (among an even larger pool of failures) so we should do that too!" argument, please remember that you are choosing to trade in your 100 lotto tickets (1.1 pick) for just one (later pick). Every QB is a crapshoot, but your best chance at landing a top QB is going after the top prospect! Of course, that is unless the front office thinks they've found a diamond-in-the-rough that the rest of the league just totally missed and they're willing to bet the farm on their gut feeling and pass on a widely-accepted top prospect. Now THAT is the big risk.
Nice post/analysis... my only problem as a Dolphins fan is to please not include Tannehill as a 'hit'. I hope they jump ship on that failed experiment ASAP. He's trash.
Your analogy is wrong on two fronts. 1. You assume that every lotto ticket has an equal rate of hitting. Obviously this entire thread is about how that assumption is wrong. First round lotto tickets, even if they're not #1 overall pick lotto tickets, are far and away the best way you can maximize your hit rate. 2. You assume that we can scratch off every lotto ticket to our own whimsy. We can't. The process of "checking" to see if a lotto ticket is a winner is a THREE YEAR COMMITMENT. Now are you gonna commit to a sixth round lotto ticket to see if he's the next Brady? Of course you're not. The best way to do it is just to take the best one out there, the one that the coaching staff you handpicked has put their faith in, and then see what happens. You give that coaching staff one or two tries, and then after that you start to realize that it's the coaching staff's evaluation that is the problem and not the pick of QB that you are making. So then the whole process repeats itself until you hit. Now I dunno bout you, but I haven't got an infinite number of three-year windows in me. Perhaps 20-25 more if I'm lucky (I'm 29). So let's hope the Texans hit on one before we all die.
Aside from his pocket mobility, I never liked Tannehill. I mean... he's a WR, right? But it's too early to give up on him. It can take a while. Not everyone is an Andrew Luck. Brees sucked early-on.
Good post! just 2 complaints 1-I think it's safe to bold Andrew Luck.. he is definitely legit. Wilson benefits from playing for SEA. 2-You bolded Schaub. Otherwise, good job!
I just didn't want to judge people from a particular class until the jury was in for all of them. What will RGIII's future be? Will Tannehill get better? He threw for a bunch of yards but that's more because of volume. His yards/attempt and passer rating are pretty low. Nick Foles looked great this year but can he keep it up? Schaub was pretty damned good until he fell off a cliff. Not elite but a solid starter. Usually top 10 in both yards and passer rating and made 2 pro bowls. He meets my definition. Up until Wilson, he was the only decent QB to have been drafted in the 3rd round since ??? But like I said, the bolded names are besides the point. You can look at the names and draw your own conclusions. I don't expect others to have the same criteria as me and some of the names I was split on and just arbitrarily made a decision.
