Rockets simulation for 12-13 (Martin, Dragic, Batum, Kaman)

Link, with thanks to hsf09 for the transcript.

Link, this leaves Dwight Howard and Deron Williams as the only star players available, ie provided Dwight doesn’t pick up his option.

The Mavs will also have cap space next year.

Dirk
Marion
Haywood (amnesty candidate)
Odom (guaranteed)
Roddy (team option)
Jones (team option)

Their trump card is obviously Dirk. However, If Dwight and Deron are hell bent on teaming up with each other. Dallas will need to cut their salary all the way down to basically just Dirk.

The Rockets have no superstar to dangle but they can assemble a proven squad this season as the selling point. Ready to win, just add superstar/s.

The finals last season was won by the "superstar" team over the team superstars (Heat). If the Heat fail again this season it can only help strengthen this concept.

There are two things the Rockets might consider if they choose the two superstar free agents route.

1. Trade Kevin Martin
* If Martin can’t adapt to a catch and shoot game.
* Allows the Rockets to split his salary between two starting wings for cap space

Going all in for Deron & Dwight can leave most franchises burnt, ie sacrifice everything, end up with nothing. For the Rockets they’re in a position to hedge, ie place an each way bet.

If the Rockets lose out on the superstar free agent sweepstakes. The biggest risk they take is trading Martin but the worst outcome is they manage to only convert his contract into two younger starters on the wings.

2. Extend Goran Dragic
* Lowry’s not playing 9 minutes per game behind Deron
* Lock in a quality combo guard at right price and because he's unrestricted
*Another contracted player to pitch the idea of “team depth" to the two stars


That said, Lowry is a keeper. At least until the very last moment. The reason is, he’s the fallback plan. If they need to create further salary space there’s the option to amnesty his contract which is only guaranteed for 2012-13.

Among the players with contract options. Budinger is another keeper. No matter how bad he seems to play or if his game has peaked he’s proven a certain level of NBA ability and importantly it comes at a 900k hit to the cap. It’s team depth at the right price.

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Kevin Garnett called pre-season a simulation. That’s what 2011-12 could be for the Rockets. It's a simulation for Deron and Dwight to see how they can potentially win a championship here.

3 veteran starters in Lee, Scola, and a SF (Batum)
* Batum’s unhappy with his new role on the bench this season. They have 4 wings who could start on other teams. I hope the Rockets can sneak in on this one. Like Lee he can dunk, block and shoot 3s, why not.
* Stars leaving teams want to win now and not wait on the potential on younger players. Important to have these 3 starters in their prime.

The Blazers need another big on their bench. Patterson's game and rookie contract would appeal to them. Even though they amnestied Roy's contract they appear to be treading more carefully with the tax this time around.

Add another C with low post game
*Rockets need to win as much as they can to enhance the simulation.
*Chris Kaman’s game and expiring contract just fits perfectly.
*The Rockets would have the option of re-signing Kaman whether it be as a ring chaser or again as the lesser side of the hedge bet.

The Hornets don't need Martin anymore and Stern didn't like the salary commitment but the T-wolves help could make a 3-way trade satisfactory for all parties.

Budinger, Parsons, Morris, and whoever's still left on the bench are just as important. They improve, so do the Rockets chances in the sweepastakes. Hopefully, the players with declined options play harder, cause it just means the Rockets have the option of giving them longer contracts next year. They're restricted so again the Rockets aren't completely burnt in a worst case scenario.

 

Chasing two superstars is indeed a dream scenario but unlike the Knicks the Rockets are in position to do so without giving up the farm.

 

Teams can only use it during the off-season. I think it expires when the current CBA expires.

 

Yes, that's why I speculated Lowry could be a last minute amnesty candidate. That is if Morey were to chase two stars in free agency.

That act alone wouldn't free enough salary. Either Martin or Scola would need to be moved for expiring contract/s.

If the salary cap next year is $61M the max for Dwight and Deron would be about $18.3M per player.

If Scola were the player moved then Kmart, Bud, Patterson, Morris, Parsons and Dalembert's $1.5M leaves around only $4.5M to re-sign Lee.

Obviously with Scola lesser salary the Rockets can present more "team" to Dwight and Deron. Stars who are leaving their old teams for a better situation to win and to win now.

The thread was to mostly point out that a major trade is likely as well as who and that it might be advantageous to skip the "no extensions" policy this season.