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Rockets should make a run at Carmelo Anthony in summer of 2011

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by Sweet Lou 4 2, Mar 12, 2010.

  1. pbnfamilia

    pbnfamilia Member

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    nope u got it wrong
    2011 is the year that we get kevin durant book it peoople :)
     
  2. pbnfamilia

    pbnfamilia Member

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    the thunder are already having problems with commiting to durant
    they declined to sign a new contract for the next 7 years
    so who knows they problably think they can get durant cheaper if they wait
    but if they wait they risk the chance of him signing with someone else
    there a young team so i doubt they have the money to keep all their current players and it seems to be there thinking more of the financial side of the buisness than the winning just my thought
     
  3. BEAT LA

    BEAT LA Member

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    First, lets define a scorer. An NBA scorer is someone who can make shots at an efficient clip. Efficient is somewhere between 45% - 55%.

    Let's look at past winning teams.

    Lakers

    Bynum -Efficient
    Gasol - Efficient, good scorer
    Odom - Scorer
    Kobe -Prolific Scorer
    Fisher -Consistent at knocking down the open shot. Good PG.

    They had energy guys off the bench who can score in Ariza, Vujajic, and Powell.


    The Celtics

    Perkins - Efficient
    KG - Great scorer
    Pierce - Prolific scorer
    Ray Allen - Good Scorer
    Rondo - Consistent and does what a good PG should do.

    Davis, House, and Allen - energy guys who can score off the bench.


    Spurs
    Nesterovic -when Manu comes off the bench, this guy can start.
    Duncan - Efficient, great scorer
    Bowen- Consistent
    Finley - Scorer
    Parker - Efficient scorer, does what a PG should do. The best PG.

    Ginobili - prolific scorer off the bench. Horry, and Barry scored off the bench as well.

    Pistons...too easy
     
  4. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    We might be able to get rid of the first round picks / LLE's so that creates 8 million there. If Yao is willing to do $10 mil to win - that helps too.

    Also, I believe that before Scola and Brooks are signed they count against the cap at their previous years salary - so there will be more cap room to sign a free agent - another 5 million there. That's $15million - so it's possible to get Carmelo for that, and then sign Brooks and Scola and go over the cap by about $6-$7 million.

    Another option would be to trade away Ariza along with the draft picks for another young sf/sg to play behind Carmelo & Martin and split time with Bud.
     
  5. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    But why would we do that? This is Morey we're talking about, those guys he drafts will probably be potential superstars themselves.

    If you have a source on this I'd be very interested in seeing it, I was under the impression that their new salary counts against the cap.

    In any case, none of those changes the fact that Melo is going to pick up his $18MM player option... why take a huge pay cut to sign somewhere else when you're already on a borderline championship contender?
     
  6. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    Durant is an RFA. If they want him back, they can have him back. Trust me. They want him back.

    Both sides are just posturing and engaging in a bit of gamesmanship right now. When it comes down to it, OKC will match any offer for Durant's services.
     
  7. Thefabman

    Thefabman Member

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    cant durant just sign the qualifying offer and wait it out a year if theyre gonna lowball him
     
  8. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    To your first question - I think Morey would take a current superstar over a potential one. He still wants to win, not just accumulate talent.

    Brooks cap hold for 2011 would be 6 million, so it doesn't save us much there. And Scola will already be signed for 7 in 2010. So that is $13 million.

    I'll need to refigure my thinking.

    Oh, if Denver fails to win a ring or worse, Denver slips back further losing in an earlier round this year and next, and if Billups declines in the next few years....don't think Carmelo may not bolt
     
  9. Sweet Lou 4 2

    Sweet Lou 4 2 Contributing Member
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    SO this is our Salary Cap Holds / Expected Salaries in Summer 2011

    Lowry: $4M
    Scola: $7M
    Brooks: $6M (hold)
    Yao: $10M
    Martin: $12M
    Ariza: $6.8M
    Hill: $2.9M
    Budinger: $0.8M

    Sub Total: $49.5 million

    2010 first round pick: $2M
    2011 first round pick: $2M
    LLE-MLE free agent(s): $4M(?)

    Total: $57.5 million

    Assuming the economy picks up and the cap increases a bit, we still won't have enough to sign Carmelo. I think we need about $18 million.

    I think Morey has to do this: Trade away Ariza along with the picks for expiring contracts. That would clear $15 million in cap space and give us the ability to sign Carmelo Anthony to a max contract. Another way would be to not re-sign Brooks but trade him away.

    Leaving us with:

    Yao
    Brooks + Lowry
    Martin
    Scola + Hill
    Anthony + Chase

    I actually think this could be a better situation for the Rockets from a rotation stand point. we'd need a back-up center to take minutes away from Yao of course during the regular season but this would give us a great 8 player rotation for the playoffs.

    It will be difficult to pull off though I admit. And I don't know if Morey would want to dump Ariza's salary just to be in the hunt for Carmelo. So I guess it's an unlikely scenario.

    Oh well.
     
  10. pippendagimp

    pippendagimp Member

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    pippendagimp should make a run at Jessica Alba in summer of 2011
     
  11. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

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    The draft picks will be signed with money out of the MLE. MLE is about $6 mil.
     
  12. BetterThanEver

    BetterThanEver Contributing Member

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    Never mind. I was thinking of what Morey did with his rookies in the past, which were mostly 2nd round picks. 1st round picks have a rookie exception.
     
  13. roslolian

    roslolian Member

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    LOL. The main reason why Yao Ming was insanely popular isn't because he's Chinese. Its because he's Chinese AND he was great on the court. Yao isn't the first Chinese NBA player-there were guys like Wang Zhi Zhi before him, and he didn't become insanely popular. The difference is Yao Ming was an all-star caliber talent for a long time.

    Case in point would bi Yi Jianlian. When he entered the league the Chinese were all over him and projecting him to be the next Ming. A few years later and his presence certainly didn't help the Nets make money. Yao would be the same thing, he comes back a shell of his former self, nobody in his right mind will offer him the max, and the team that does will regret it big time. Honestly if Yao demands the max then let him go. Let's just sign someone like Aaron Gray and be done with it.
     
  14. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    Yes, but this is VERY unlikely.

    If OKC doesn't offer Durant the max, then someone else most assuredly will. Every team with enough cap space in 2011 would do that in a heartbeat. So, all the Thunder would have to do is wait until Durant signed a max offer sheet with another team, and then match it.

    This is actually a way for the Thunder to save several millions of dollars. At least under the current CBA, if Durant signs an offer sheet with another team, then he is only able to get a five-year deal (instead of six) and with 8% annual raises (instead of 10.5%). However, (a) I doubt the Thunder would pull a tactic like that with their unquestioned franchise player (as opposed to a Carl Landry type of role player) and (b) the new CBA may have vastly different rules, so this is all a moot point.

    The only way that Durant will go anywhere else is if (a) the new CBA somehow allows him to do so, and I SERIOUSLY doubt that will be the case, since the new CBA may even make it HARDER for players like Durant to leave their teams; (b) assuming that the new CBA is similar to the old one with regard to restricted free agency, Durant passes up tens of millions of dollars in guaranteed money and accepts a one-year qualifying offer for $7.9M; and (c) he decides to leave for LESS money with another team in 2012 (again, assuming that the CBA keeps similar measures in place to favor players staying with their teams, which it will).

    No matter what, barring some ridiculous change in the CBA (which won't happen, and even if it did, Durant's draft class would likely be "grandfathered in"), there is ABSOLUTELY NO WAY IN HELL that Kevin Durant is playing for another team in the 2011-12 NBA season. This is not an opinion. This is fact.

    People need to just get over the idea of adding Kevin Durant right now. The Rockets LITERALLY have a better chance of getting Lebron James. No joke. That's how unlikely getting Durant is.
     
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  15. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    Thank you, Bima, this is what I was trying to say but you have a more comprehensive understanding of it. Some people don't understand that when there is a superstar RFA, that means his home team is getting him. Period.

    Melo won't be available either. We're thinking the new CBA will reduce the max salary quite a bit, right? I can't think of any reason for him to take a $4M to $8M pay cut to go play for another team when he has an $18M player option with Denver.
     
  16. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    Yeah, I wish there was a way to "Sticky" a big banner (not even a thread) at the top of the BBS, in all caps, saying, "KEVIN DURANT IS NOT LEAVING THE OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES".

    As for the max salary in 2011, I'm not so sure that it will be substantially decreased. The owners are angling for a hard salary cap, which would likely far somewhere between where the current "soft" cap and the luxury tax threshold are. They are much more concerned with doing away with the MLE than they are with the max salary. The MLE has had more to do with increasing player salaries in the aggregate than the max itself. If I'm the owners, leaving the max salary alone is one of the first concessions that I'd make in negotiations. This way, you divide the player's union into the "haves" and the "have nots" and may be able to get the union to break more easily.

    Your point about Carmelo's ETO in 2011 is well taken. He's got a serious choice to make:

    (A) turn down a long-term deal in favor of the $18.5M he'd get in the final year of his current contract, and risk either getting injured in 2011-12 or a substantial reduction in the max salary under the new CBA; or

    (B) assume the risk of making less money in 2011-12 (assuming that the CBA will adversely impact the max salary) in favor of more guaranteed money in the aggregate, and avoid the injury risk in 2011-12.

    You are right to point out that it is no given that Melo will opt out.

    Only time will tell.
     
  17. NIKEstrad

    NIKEstrad Contributing Member
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    In past CBAs, it has not been a "hard" max salary. Free agents have been eligible to sign for 105% of their previous salary regardless of other rules. He'd still be eligible to receive a contract starting at roughly $18M from another team (or resigning with the Nuggets at that amount).

    This actually creates a tricky situation if the new CBA creates a harder cap (though I'd imagine they'd phase it in). Having a franchise player like Melo for $20m would be a distinct disadvantage vs. having a franchise player like Durant at $12m or so. Superstars who entered the league in their teens (like Melo and LBJ) would end up eating a ton of salary cap space as they enter their prime years.
     
  18. pbnfamilia

    pbnfamilia Member

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    yeah but will durant come back because either way there gonna loose one of their stars
    maybe durant will sign with the city he can win a ring with
     
  19. BimaThug

    BimaThug Resident Capologist
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    pbnfamilia, I think you are failing to understand a key issue here.

    "RFA" stands for RESTRICTED free agent. Under NBA rules, a restricted free agent's original team has the power to match ANY offer made on that player. There is literally NO WAY that Oklahoma City does not get to decide whether to keep Durant.

    The ONLY way that Kevin Durant can leave Oklahoma City without the Thunder having any say is if he turns down a long term contract in 2011 and signs WITH OKLAHOMA CITY for one year at $7.9M (the "qualifying offer" amount for the second pick of the 2007 NBA draft). Then, only after playing for the Thunder in 2011-12, can Durant leave for any team he wants.

    If you didn't know these rules before, now you know.
     
  20. postaboi713

    postaboi713 Member

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    Durant seems like a very lyal cat. I cant seem him leaving OKC, especially with how they're playing at this point...
     

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