Update after game 4 of the preseason, including +/- stats. Code: [SIZE="1"][B] Per 36 Min Per 48 Min ---------------------------------------------------- --------------- Player G mpg pts reb ast stl blk tov used_poss GmScr TS% +/- +/- w/o +/-[/B] J. Harden 4 25.5 29.6 4.6 4.9 2.1 0.4 2.1 24.8 24.7 70% +36 +16.9 -2.1 T. Jones 4 24.8 10.9 7.3 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.8 13.2 8.5 49% +9 +4.4 +11.8 O. Casspi 4 24.0 21.0 10.1 3.4 0.4 0.8 2.6 18.4 16.9 72% +29 +14.5 +1.5 P. Beverley 4 24.0 14.6 6.0 6.4 3.4 0.0 2.6 13.9 18.0 80% +42 +21.0 -5.0 D. Howard 4 23.3 17.8 8.5 2.7 0.8 2.7 3.9 24.2 9.5 46% +25 +12.9 +3.4 D. Motiejunas 4 21.5 18.4 8.8 2.1 0.8 0.8 2.5 20.3 11.2 54% +7 +3.9 +11.3 C. Parsons 3 27.3 16.2 6.6 3.5 0.9 0.4 2.2 15.5 14.1 67% +25 +14.6 +3.0 J. Lin 3 26.0 19.4 5.1 6.0 2.8 0.5 4.6 18.7 17.0 80% +12 +7.4 +8.4 R. Brewer 4 16.0 5.1 3.4 3.4 1.1 2.3 0.6 6.3 8.4 55% -2 -1.5 +12.7 A. Brooks 3 15.3 11.0 3.9 7.0 0.0 0.8 3.9 18.6 5.1 44% -3 -3.1 +11.5 F. Garcia 2 21.5 21.8 3.3 3.3 1.7 1.7 2.5 16.2 19.3 87% +21 +23.4 +3.5 R. Covington 4 7.8 9.3 5.8 2.3 0.0 0.0 3.5 20.2 -0.1 29% -19 -29.4 +15.2 R. Williams 1 22.0 14.7 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.5 8.0 51% -6 -13.1 +10.7 I. Canaan 4 5.0 0.0 5.4 10.8 0.0 0.0 1.8 14.4 -1.8 0% -18 -43.2 +13.9 G. Smith 1 3.0 24.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.0 36.0 -18.0 100% +2 +32.0 +7.6 TEAM 4 48.0 83.5 31.7 19.3 6.6 4.7 13.3 88.3 66.2 61% +32 +8.0 --- [/SIZE] Quick summary: Harden is playing like a bonafide superstar Beverley has been awesome in terms of efficiency and +/- impact Our shooting as a team has been ridiculous (61% true shooting) Casspi has easily been our most effective PF Howard's efficiency and rebounding are way below norm for him.
If the team were an individual player, its TS% would be eighth all time, between Barkley and Magic. Sick! They are going to be fun to watch this year. And to think that people were half complaining about the offense in two of the games?! Thanks for the hard work crunching the numbers!
Yeah it looks like right now in "most effective PF category" its: Omri D-Mo Jones Will Omri be able to make up for his lack of length on defense? If so he's got to be a lock to start unless we end up starting twin towers.
Also... Harden. My God. Half the time it doesn't even look like he's trying very hard on offense. Defense has looked better, as in, he actually puts in effort.
Update including game 5: Code: [SIZE="1"][B] Per 36 Min Per 48 Min ---------------------------------------------------- --------------- Player G mpg pts reb ast stl blk tov used_poss GmScr TS% +/- +/- w/o +/-[/B] J. Harden 5 25.4 29.2 4.3 4.5 2.0 0.3 3.7 25.2 22.4 73% +29 +11.0 +3.4 P. Beverley 5 24.6 14.3 5.3 6.4 2.6 0.3 2.3 14.2 16.7 74% +58 +22.6 -8.6 D. Howard 5 24.4 18.0 11.5 2.1 1.5 2.4 3.5 23.6 11.8 46% +31 +12.2 +2.4 O. Casspi 5 22.8 20.8 9.8 3.2 0.6 0.6 2.5 19.0 16.3 68% +38 +16.0 -0.4 J. Lin 4 27.8 15.6 4.9 6.8 2.9 0.6 4.2 18.2 14.1 66% +15 +6.5 +8.2 C. Parsons 4 27.0 14.7 7.7 3.3 0.7 0.3 2.3 15.4 12.2 62% +30 +13.3 +2.5 T. Jones 4 24.8 10.9 7.3 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.8 13.2 8.5 49% +9 +4.4 +9.5 D. Motiejunas 5 18.6 17.8 9.3 2.3 1.2 0.8 3.1 20.8 10.7 52% +4 +2.1 +10.8 R. Brewer 5 14.2 4.6 3.0 3.0 1.5 2.0 0.5 5.7 8.1 55% -4 -2.7 +11.6 F. Garcia 3 21.7 22.7 3.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.8 18.5 19.1 76% +34 +25.1 +0.8 A. Brooks 4 13.3 14.9 4.8 6.1 0.7 0.7 3.4 19.4 10.1 54% -5 -4.5 +10.8 R. Covington 4 7.8 9.3 5.8 2.3 0.0 0.0 3.5 20.2 -0.1 29% -19 -29.4 +12.9 R. Williams 2 14.5 11.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 13.5 3.5 46% -8 -13.2 +10.2 O. Asik 1 25.0 5.8 13.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 2.9 14.7 1.3 25% -8 -15.4 +10.0 I. Canaan 4 5.0 0.0 5.4 10.8 0.0 0.0 1.8 14.4 -1.8 0% -18 -43.2 +12.0 G. Smith 2 5.0 21.6 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.2 25.2 0.0 60% -1 -4.8 +7.9 TEAM 5 48 81.9 33.5 18.5 7.2 4.5 14.1 89.5 64.1 59% +37 +7.4 --- [/SIZE]
Well, Dwight Howard's rebound rate got fixed in a hurry. A few things I noticed: 1. Usage rates: James Harden's usage rate at 25% after being at 29% last season. Several of the main returning guys (Lin, Parsons, Beverley) also currently see their usage rate at a bit lower than before. So, it seems like that the extra possessions that go to the center position due to the switch from Asik (16.3% usage) to Howard (23.6% usage) is being taken fairly evenly from the other positions. Meanwhile, each of them is still maintaining a good scoring pace because these guys are using their scoring opportunities more efficiently. The numbers are not going to add up exactly because lineups are mixed and matched differently than they may be in the regular season, but I imagine we are fairly likely to see this trend in the regular season, too. 2. Turnovers: I think the Rockets will lead the league in turnover % this year again. We added a high usage, high turnover Dwight Howard to an already high TO roster and so far the numbers seem to look that way. The team will also likely get more TOs while working on incorporating Dwight (post entry passes and such things) and trying out the Dwight+Asik lineup in the early part of the season. Anyhow, the team better be ready to run back on D and hopefully they avoid the really bad "pick six" live ball turnovers.
To be clear, what I'm calling used_poss in that table is not the same thing as Usg% as defined at basketball-reference.com. If that's what you're looking for, it can be calculated with stats in the table using the following formula: Usg% = (used_poss<sub>player36</sub> - 0.33*ast<sub>player36</sub>) / (used_poss<sub>TEAM36</sub> - 0.33*ast<sub>TEAM36</sub>) Here's the Usg% for the players through 5 preseason games: Code: [B]player Usg%[/B] J. Harden 28.4% P. Beverley 14.5% D. Howard 27.5% O. Casspi 21.5% J. Lin 19.1% C. Parsons 17.1% T. Jones 15.4% D. Motiejunas 24.1% R. Brewer 5.6% F. Garcia 21.3% A. Brooks 20.8% R. Covington 23.3% R. Williams 16.2% O. Asik 17.1% I. Canaan 13.0% G. Smith 30.2% Yep, turnover-prone guards, fast pace, and shaky post-entry passing will add up to a high turnover. Good point.
1. Thanks for the clarification. Most of these usage rates are likely gonna come down a bit as the "core" players spend more time playing with each other instead of in some bench-heavy lineups. They are really making an effort to feed Dwight, it seems. 27.5% is higher than his regular season usage rate for any season in his career. I frankly think that Mike D'Antoni is right about him-- posting him up isn't exactly the most efficient play out there and the offense is probably better if you just use him as a finisher on the pick and roll, a catch and dunk guy, and offensive rebounder. But I think the team is gonna win enough games to have a decent playoff seed anyway so spending some possessions working on Dwight's post game may be a worthy investment if you think you might be able to use it as a playoff weapon. Getting an effective post game going is hard, though. It requires guys to pass well, space the floor and operating in a crowded paint. Most of all it takes patience and working through mistakes (kind of like what the team did with Yao Ming, he and Dwight are very different players, but similar in some ways). 2. The Rockets are going to be up there again in FTA/possession, probably even leading the league given that Dwight is going to get hacked intentionally and Harden will beast even more once the opposing team is in the penalty. It's the flip side of leading the league in TO%. Both are a result of aggressively playing in a crowd. I think the reward is probably worth it overall given the personnel.
And according to +/- per 48, the team performs better without Asik, Lin, Brooks, DMo, TJones, Smith, Brewer, Covington, Williams, and Canaan.
Getting two starts then not playing in a game (Monday) where he was unlikely to get many minutes with the starters probably greatly contributed to that plus/minus for Terrence.
I've always felt that, everything else being equal, the postup is not a more efficient play per se, but works more reliably in pressure situations. If you you have a good PnR game, you may ride it for 90% of the time with same or better success compared to the best post-offense out there. However, when game's on the line, the defence will put in this little extra effort and somehow break down the PnR, while a horse in the post still would deliver.
With allowing 2.9 defense (i.e. defenders being in paint for as long as possible without getting 3 seconds), the horse in the post has been becoming a donkey. The initial PnR action can be broken, but it usually takes a third man and it is harder for defenses to rotate to cover moving players. The secondary option out of a PnR can be to set up Dwight with a deep post position which would lead to much better scoring opportunities than the traditional just dumping ball into the post offense. this is a option the Rockets did not have last season.
I've always wondered why the officials suddenly see that happening when teams go into hack-a-blank mode, but so frequently miss it prior to that time.
Indeed. Post ups in general are no longer what they were pre-rules change. That said, just because it's not "optimal" doesn't mean it should not be used. There's something to be said for diversity, and it's not like our guards can run the P&R every time down the court. There were plenty of possessions last season that ended a lot worse than a decent Howard post game.
