Rockets Performance Compared to All Young Teams Historically (Overachieving Possibly?)

It makes sense that older teams win more simply because there's going to be a pretty high correlation of age with effectiveness as a player. Basically, older guys stay in the league because they're good.

The average career length in the nba is about 5 years and a lot of guys come into the league around 22 years old. You notice the lower win teams seem to drop off a lot at around an average age of 27-28, meaning basically every player on that team was good enough to have an above average career length.

 

i think it was Walt Frazier or Mike Been that said the Rockets are a fun team to watch because they're young and like to see them develop

 

Makes no sense. Everyone gets minor injuries. Are players supposed to sit out the next season for an injury that has a 6-8 week recovery time?

These guys all have great doctors, trainers, and rehab programs. Some players bodies just can't take the punishment of being in the NBA.

Take Yao Ming for example. His breakdown was inevitable. The only way he could have stayed healthy was to not play basketball.

 

Basketball-reference.com quite handily lists each team by their average age weighed by minutes played, the Rockets in essence tied for 2nd youngest at 24.4 years of age with Charlotte and Cleveland, only behind New Orleans at 24.1.

Below is a table listing all teams by average age and "SRS"-- "Simple Ranking System," which is a type of "power ranking" type of measure that that accounts for margin of victory/defeat and strength of schedule. The average SRS is, by definition, zero. I had posted this table in an earlier thread some time ago, but this is the most updated version:

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<table class="tableizer-table">
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th>Rank</th><th>Team</th><th>Age</th><th>SRS</th></tr>
<tr><td>1</td><td>New Orleans Hornets</td><td>24.1</td><td>-4.42</td></tr>
<tr><td>2</td><td>Charlotte Bobcats</td><td>24.4</td><td>-7.93</td></tr>
<tr><td>2</td><td>Cleveland Cavaliers</td><td>24.4</td><td>-5.43</td></tr>
<tr><td>2</td><td>Houston Rockets</td><td>24.4</td><td>1.16</td></tr>
<tr><td>5</td><td>Portland Trail Blazers</td><td>24.7</td><td>-3.23</td></tr>
<tr><td>6</td><td>Washington Wizards</td><td>25.1</td><td>-7.7</td></tr>
<tr><td>7</td><td>Golden State Warriors</td><td>25.3</td><td>1.54</td></tr>
<tr><td>8</td><td>Orlando Magic</td><td>25.3</td><td>-1.89</td></tr>
<tr><td>9</td><td>Philadelphia 76ers</td><td>25.4</td><td>-3.71</td></tr>
<tr><td>10</td><td>Detroit Pistons</td><td>25.6</td><td>-3.37</td></tr>
<tr><td>10</td><td>Toronto Raptors</td><td>25.6</td><td>-5.59</td></tr>
<tr><td>12</td><td>Sacramento Kings</td><td>25.8</td><td>-5.92</td></tr>
<tr><td>13</td><td>Oklahoma City Thunder</td><td>26</td><td>9.13</td></tr>
<tr><td>13</td><td>Indiana Pacers</td><td>26</td><td>-0.65</td></tr>
<tr><td>15</td><td>Denver Nuggets</td><td>26.1</td><td>1.86</td></tr>
<tr><td>15</td><td>Milwaukee Bucks</td><td>26.1</td><td>-1.84</td></tr>
<tr><td>17</td><td>Utah Jazz</td><td>26.5</td><td>0.82</td></tr>
<tr><td>18</td><td>Memphis Grizzlies</td><td>26.8</td><td>7.15</td></tr>
<tr><td>19</td><td>Minnesota Timberwolves</td><td>26.9</td><td>0.04</td></tr>
<tr><td>20</td><td>Phoenix Suns</td><td>27.1</td><td>-3.72</td></tr>
<tr><td>21</td><td>Atlanta Hawks</td><td>27.3</td><td>2.51</td></tr>
<tr><td>22</td><td>Chicago Bulls</td><td>28.3</td><td>1.86</td></tr>
<tr><td>23</td><td>Los Angeles Clippers</td><td>28.4</td><td>8.93</td></tr>
<tr><td>24</td><td>Brooklyn Nets</td><td>28.9</td><td>2.59</td></tr>
<tr><td>25</td><td>Dallas Mavericks</td><td>29</td><td>-2.97</td></tr>
<tr><td>25</td><td>San Antonio Spurs</td><td>29</td><td>7.63</td></tr>
<tr><td>27</td><td>Boston Celtics</td><td>29.8</td><td>-0.91</td></tr>
<tr><td>28</td><td>Los Angeles Lakers</td><td>30</td><td>2.63</td></tr>
<tr><td>29</td><td>Miami Heat</td><td>30.1</td><td>5.79</td></tr>
<tr><td>30</td><td>New York Knicks</td><td>30.6</td><td>5.87</td></tr></table>

As you can see, the Rockets are the only team among the 7 youngest with a positive SRS. Among the 14 youngest teams in the league, only Houston (tied for 2nd youngest), GSW (8th youngest) and OKC (tied for 13th youngest) have positive SRS.

 

Shroopy2 found out that there's a correlation between team age and W/L success, and you pointed out the reason behind it.

Yes, only the best and fittest players can survive in NBA ==> A player's age does matter a lot.

Both are great posts.

 

But you have to consider the league as a whole is younger so those statistics are misleading as it doesnt tell the whole story.

This is a whole other NBA compared to the 80's, this years Rockets teams would get DESTROYED, sonned, pwned, b slapped, its not even close to those rugged, experienced teams back in the day.

 

shroopy, Some dude named maury? murray? is stealing your research and making posts about it on the twitter world, claims to be a G.M of sorts.

I haven't been this excited about a rockets team since August 08' when we got artest. Because of "basketball reasons" I've been relegated to view the opponent's broadcast teams, even those guys are always impressed at how well they play considering their youth.

 

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p>.@<a href="https://twitter.com/jharden13">jharden13</a> is one of only 6 guards under 24 yrs old with 8 or more gms of 25 pts (&lt;=20 FGA), 3 asts, 3 rebs in first 30 starts</p>&mdash; Daryl Morey (@dmorey) <a href="https://twitter.com/dmorey/status/281161622406447105" data-datetime="2012-12-18T22:18:49+00:00">December 18, 2012</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

 

Did this make anyone else LOL? I think I'm just immature and gross, but oh well, it's human nature.

 

Historically, what is in store for decent young teams? Do they evolve into contenders?

I guess the hope is that if you have enough decent young guns, one of them will become a star.

I have nothing against being young, but it sure would be nice to see a Rockets team that could manage better than fifth seed.

 

I honestly think we just need a stretch-four like Ilyasova and develop Greg Smith to be our low-post scoring option. Smith might not have exceptional length and height but he is talented.

I haven't seen anybody with hands like that since prime Amare, and he is incredible at finishing.

 

ಠ_ಠ


not sure that's the word you're looking for.

 

I don't want to be a buzz kill or anything, but I honestly feel like there is going to be a serious crash soon. Our schedule has 15 of our next 23 on the road, where we've been pretty bad (3-7) thus far. 14 of those 23 are against the West, against whom we are even worse (3-10).

As happy as I've been with this team's performance to this point (I never thought they'd be over .500 25 games into the season), The next 6 weeks are going to be a real litmus test to see what these guys are truly capable of.

I do hope they continue to prove me wrong, but I expect our record to be somewhere around 21-27 by the end of January, which I think a majority of us would not have been surprised by or dissatisfied with at the start of the season.

 

So if I read that chart right, this team of Rockets is also at .500 compared to younger teams having success.

 

You are correct, unfortunately. And it starts on Christmas day with 4 games in 5 days. If the Rockets are anywhere near .500 in 6 weeks I will view it as an unbelievable victory for the coaching staff and the young players.

 

So once was coincidence but twice was strange, so I went to Urban Dictionary.

Hah, seriously?

That's what they're calling it now?

Try this version, where it means 'to stare wonderingly/stupidly with mouth open". ie. Every single time some number like this comes to my attention I can't help but just stare in wonder a little. Has this really become an SAT word?

 

Agreed. I'm actually kind of concerned for Asik's and Parsons' conditioning, Asik in particular and Parsons still dealing with that shoulder. Not to mention Harden's ridiculous minutes; which is why I'm kinda glad that Lin's figuring it out right about now and that Greg Smith and DMo are stepping up. They'll probably be defensive liabilities, but at this stage the offense is humming so nicely that it might not make a difference.