With wins by Orlando and Charlotte last night, combined with a Detroit loss, the Rockets are now locked in to the #23 and #38 picks in the 2011 draft. Barring a miracle (the Rockets have about a 1.8% chance at a top-3 pick), Houston will also be selecting at #14. (Also, with the news that Perry Jones is going back to Baylor, and with rumors that Harrison Barnes may also stay in school, I am less and less optimistic that the Rockets can get anyone in this year's draft at #14 who could help the team much. I'm getting more and more in favor of trading the pick for a 2012 or 2013 pick, even if that future pick is lottery-protected.)
Agreed, trading the 14th pick (or selecting an international prospect that will stay in Europe like Jonas Valanciunas ) would give the Rockets $1.8 million more to spend in free agency.
Not quite. At least under the current salary cap rules, first round selections playing overseas do not count against the salary cap or luxury tax during the NBA season, but they do count against the cap during the offseason. This means that, for instance, Ricky Rubio does not currently count against Minnesota's cap room, but come July 1 (assuming that the current CBA was still in place after July 1), Rubio would start to count against the T-Wolves' cap in the amount of the 5th pick of the 2011 NBA Draft.
Maybe the later pick, but I have too much faith in DM to hope they trade the #14 pick. Let's say they had made that same trade last year. No PPatt. Who here foresaw that pick? The fact that the draft experts here don't see anybody for us to take at #14 doesn't mean DM won't. He'll pick some beagle named Skippy, and a year from now we'll all be marveling at the pick.
Since Perry and maybe Barnes are going back to school, the Knicks pick get some what valuable since it will be a deeper draft next year. But a question Blima Thug, if the Rockets sneak in the playoffs next year and get the 17 or 18th pick, does that mean the Nets would get it?
I'm not saying that the Rockets should trade the pick BEFORE the draft. Of course, the Rockets will want to keep their options open and see how the first 13 picks play out. That worked out well for them last year. But this year the talent level at #14 may not be any better than at #23. If the players available at #14 are not "lottery caliber talent", I'd rather have, say, the #17 pick in 2012 or 2013.
I think DM's intention all along was to have enough ammo (Picks and maybe a veteran player) to move up in the top 10 picks of the draft or even higher. Given the option of spending both 1st rounders to move up I think he does it in a heartbeat.
The draft might be the last thing we have to get excited about for a while. I want to see as many fireworks as possible.
