Rob Hennigan and What His Hiring Means to Dwight Howard Trade

Been thinking quite a bit about what's going on in Orlando and what it means to the Rockets' effort to acquire (rent) Dwight Howard.

First, the news, in case you missed it, is that Orlando Magic has hired 30-year-old Rob Hennigan, formerly assistant GM of the Oklahoma City Thunder, as their new GM, replacing Otis Smith. It was also reported today that the Magic have fired long-time assistant GM Dave Twardzik and six scouts just a few days before than NBA draft. (http://articles.orlandosentinel.com...k-0625-20120624_1_twardzik-scout-rob-hennigan)


Not exactly sure what it means, but my theory is that Orlando will be going "new school" and doing things very differently than they way they've done things. It was reported back at the trade deadline that 85-year-old owner Rich DeVos didn't want to let Dwight leave and didn't want to tank even if he leaves (i.e. he'd rather have NBA-ready vets in retured), but it seems that DeVos (or maybe his family) may have changed their mind on both fronts. Hiring an OKC assistant GM and totally cleaning house with your front office staff perhaps means they are trying to build things "the OKC way"? No more trying to patch thing up like they did with Rony Seikaly when Shaq departed?

If they are trying to rebuild the OKC way, the best thing for them to do is trade Howard for the best draft pick(s) they can get before the upcoming draft, so you can start putting his own stamp on the roster right away (kind of like how OKC (then Seattle) traded Ray Allen for a 5th overall pick). Also, they will want to obtain salary flexibility as soon as they can-- not for the purpose of chasing expensive FAs, but rather to eat salary from other teams to get additional draft picks and young talent (how OKC acquired Eric Maynor and Serge Ibaka).


Assuming the above is correct, what this means about Dwight's future location?

First, it means that the Nets looks to be in an even worse position than before. Their two big trade chips are Marshon Brooks and Brook Lopez. Leaving aside questions about Lopez's game (lack of rebounding), the one big issue is that he's a free agent and is most likely going to be quite expensive. Also, the Nets won't be able to give Orlando a first round pick (thanks to the Gerald Wallace trade) until 2013, and all that they are able to give are the Rockets' lotto protected pick and the Net's own pick (which will be crap if they have both Howard and Deron Williams).


Second, failing Brooklyn, I wonder if Dwight Howard will relent on his stance about not signing an extension with the Lakers. They don't have any draft pick to trade, but Andrew Bynum is pretty valuable. I also wonder whether Hennigan loves Bynum's game (and health history) and whether he'd prefer some package of draft picks to even Bynum (who will likely keep Orlando from tanking next season).


Third (and probably most important for us here), a trade that has Houston using Lowry to obtain the highest lotto pick that it can obtain and, before draft night, flip that pick (along with other draft pick(s) and maybe low-cost players) to Orlando would seem to fit perfectly into an "OKC style" rebuilding job.

I did a little math on the following hypothetical trade:

Orlando sends Dwight Howard to Houston
Houston sends Lowry + 14th pick to SAC.
SAC sends the 5th overall pick to Orlando
Houston sends the 16th pick to, Sam Dalembert and Diamon Simpson (contract fillers) to Orlando.
Orlando sends Chris Duhon to SAC.


This will have Orlando trading Howard and Duhon for the 5th pick, the 16th pick and 3 contract fillers that, together, are guaranteed $1.5 million. This will save Orlando roughly $16 million in salary for the upcoming year and, more to the point leaving them $5.7 million under the salary cap right away-- and as much as $11.8 million under if they waive JJ Redick, whose contract is not guaranteed. The season after next, they'll only have $29 million or so in guaranteed salary.

Calculation below:

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<table class="tableizer-table">
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th> Name </th><th> Notes </th><th> 2011-12 </th><th> 2012-13 </th><th> 2013-14 </th><th>2014-15</th><th>2015-16</th></tr> <tr><td>Dwight Howard</td><td>Traded to HOU</td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Hidayet Turkoglu</td><td>Waived in 2013</td><td> $11,015,850 </td><td> $11,815,850 </td><td> $6,000,000 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Jameer Nelson</td><td>Player Option</td><td> $8,600,000 </td><td> $8,600,000 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>J.J. Redick</td><td>Non-Guaranteed</td><td> $6,750,000 </td><td> $6,190,000 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Glen Davis</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $6,300,000 </td><td> $6,400,000 </td><td> $6,400,000 </td><td> $6,600,000 </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Jason Richardson</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $5,395,000 </td><td> $5,799,625 </td><td> $6,204,250 </td><td> $6,601,125 </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Chris Duhon</td><td>Traded to SAC</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Quentin Richardson</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $2,446,200 </td><td> $2,627,400 </td><td> $2,808,600 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Ryan Anderson</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $2,244,601 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Earl Clark</td><td>Player Option</td><td> $1,160,000 </td><td> $1,240,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Daniel Orton</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $1,105,560 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Von Wafer</td><td>Waived:Non-Guaranteed</td><td> $1,069,509 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Ish Smith</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $522,472 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Larry Hughes**</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $479,806 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Justin Harper</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $473,604 </td><td> $762,195 </td><td> $1,059,293 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>DeAndre Liggins</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $473,604 </td><td> $962,195 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>5th</td><td>120% scale</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $3,374,640 </td><td> $3,526,440 </td><td> $3,678,360 </td><td> $4,660,482 </td></tr> <tr><td>16th pick </td><td>120% scale</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $1,645,440 </td><td> $1,719,480 </td><td> $1,793,520 </td><td> $2,751,260 </td></tr> <tr><td>19th pick</td><td>120% scale</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $1,418,160 </td><td> $1,482,000 </td><td> $1,545,840 </td><td> $2,380,594 </td></tr> <tr><td>Diamon Simpson</td><td>Waived</td><td> $473,604 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Samuel Dalembert</td><td>Waived</td><td> $7,000,000 </td><td> $1,500,000 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>SUM</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$55,509,810 </td><td>$52,335,505 </td><td>$29,200,063 </td><td>$20,218,845 </td><td>$9,792,336 </td></tr> <tr><td># of Players</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>16</td><td>12</td><td>7</td><td>5</td><td>3</td></tr> <tr><td>$ below $58.04 mil Cap</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $2,530,190 </td><td> $5,704,495 </td><td> $28,839,937 </td><td> $37,821,155 </td><td> $48,247,664 </td></tr></table>

Houston, on the other hand, will be in pretty decent shape and can even have up to $10 million or so in cap room at the start of the free agency period if they are to trade Kevin Martin for only a draft pick in return (say, to Minny for the 18th pick, and then pay a team like Toronto to eat the small guaranteed salary of Webster and Brad Miller).

Here's how the salary situation might look with the above trades:

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<table class="tableizer-table">
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th> Name </th><th> Notes </th><th> 2011-12 </th><th> 2012-13 </th><th> 2013-14 </th><th>2014-15</th><th>2015-16</th></tr> <tr><td> Kevin Martin </td><td> Traded to MIN </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Courtney Fortson</td><td>Waived</td><td> $473,604 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Diamon Simpson</td><td>Traded to ORL</td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Dwight Howard</td><td>Acquired by Trade </td><td> $18,091,770 </td><td> $19,536,360 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Courtney Lee </td><td> Cap Hold </td><td> $2,225,093 </td><td> $5,560,000 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Goran Dragic </td><td> Cap Hold </td><td> $2,108,000 </td><td> $4,010,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td> Patrick Patterson </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $1,959,960 </td><td> $2,096,760 </td><td> $3,105,302 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Samuel Dalembert </td><td> Traded to ORL </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Donatas Motiejunas </td><td>Cap Hold</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $1,134,500 </td><td> $1,422,720 </td><td> $1,483,920 </td><td> $2,288,205 </td></tr> <tr><td> Chandler Parsons </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $850,000 </td><td> $888,250 </td><td> $926,500 </td><td> $964,750 </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Chase Budinger </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $854,389 </td><td> $885,120 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Diamon Simpson</td><td>Traded</td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Greg Smith </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $473,604 </td><td> $762,195 </td><td> $854,389 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Derek Fisher </td><td> Waived </td><td> $3,400,000 </td><td> $644,005 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Luis Scola </td><td> </td><td> $8,591,793 </td><td> $9,408,207 </td><td> $10,224,622 </td><td>$11,041,037 </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Kyle Lowry </td><td> Traded to SAC </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Marcus Morris </td><td> </td><td> $1,823,280 </td><td> $1,905,360 </td><td> $1,987,320 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Marcus Camby</td><td>Renounced</td><td> $11,071,500 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Earl Boykins</td><td>Renounced</td><td> $762,195 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>14th Pick</td><td>Traded to SAC</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>16th Pick</td><td>Traded to ORL</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>18th Pick</td><td>Cap Hold/Acquired form MIN</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $1,237,500 </td><td> $1,551,840 </td><td> $1,618,680 </td><td> $2,489,530 </td></tr> <tr><td>SUM</td><td>Add Lee/Dragic</td><td> $52,685,188 </td><td> $48,068,257 </td><td> $20,072,693 </td><td> $15,108,387 </td><td> $4,777,734 </td></tr> <tr><td># of Players</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>13 </td><td>11 </td><td>7 </td><td>4 </td><td>2 </td></tr> <tr><td>$ below $58.04 mil Cap</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $5,354,812 </td><td> $9,971,743 </td><td> $37,967,307 </td><td> $42,931,613 </td><td> $53,262,266 </td></tr></table>

 

Obscure cap rules that Bima pointed out back at the time of Fisher's buyout-- a portion of the buyout we paid him this season gets attributed to next season. Not that it matters that much anyway. If the Rockets need $640K more in cap room, they can easily find a way to create it.

 

One thing to note from the Rockets salary table posted above: If Dwight Howard leaves, the Rockets can have a ton of cap room as long as they don't spend stupid money this year. Lets say the pay Lee and Dragic a combine $14 million (however you split it) and other FAs $10 milion, it'll still leave them with only about $44 million in salary for 2013-- or probably more than $14 million in cap room (which is enough to go after a big time FA in the 2013 class or to be used to make favorable trades).

Basically, the salary situation is that, even if Dwight Howard leaves after 1 year, the Rockets will be in a pretty decent position to move forward.

Think about it, all you really give up are a redundant PG (who is really good, but fairly expendable if Dragic returns) and a couple of mid first rounders.

 

Minnesota has 2 guys who each makes around $5 million this year but with very little $ guaranteed (together around $1.4 million) next season: Martell Webster and Brad Miller. You can trade Martin for the two of them plus a draft pick in return. You can then send the two of them to a team with enough cap room (like Toronto or SAC) plus $3 million cash. Toronto or SAC can then waive these guys, pay them $1.4 milion and make a $1.6 million profit in the deal.