Report: Carlos Correa not interested in signing contract extension

Has he walked on water yet?

 

I think most reasonable people understand the difference between future expectations and what he is now.

In the future, like 5 years from now when he's about to be a free agent, he is expected to be one of, if not the best, players in the game.

Right now, he's very impressive for his age... but if he's already peaked, that would certainly be deflating.

 

Uh, ok, I agree ("best player in the game" is the exact stuff I'm talking about), sure, but I'm watching him play "now*.

 

Predicting how much it would take to lock up MLB's best young players

Spoiler

Setting the market

RF Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
Age: 24 | Free Agent: After 2018
Early Prediction: 12 years for a $35 million AAV
Total Value: $420 million

3B Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles
Age: 23 | Free Agent: After 2018
Early Prediction: 12 years, $33 million AAV
Total Value: $396 million

The next superstar duo on deck

3B Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies
Age: 25 | Free Agent: After 2019
Price tag for extending him now: 10 years, $28 million AAV
Total Value: $280 million

RF Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox
Age: 21 | Free Agent: After 2020
Price tag for extending him now: 7 years, $22 million AAV
Total Value: $154 million

No urgency for the class of 2022, but prices go up early

Investing in young stars

For the 2022 class, some deals with comparable players under club control to keep in mind:
• 0+ years MLB service time: Evan Longoria, 15 years, $144.5 million.
• 1+ years: Christian Yelich, 7 years, $49.5 million; Andrelton Simmons, 7 years, $58 million; Starling Marte, 6 years, $31 million (8 years, $55 million with option years).
• 2+ years: Buster Posey, 8 years, $159 million; Mike Trout, 6 years, $144.5 million.
• 3+ years: Kyle Seager, 7 years, $100 million; Ryan Zimmerman, 11 years, $135 million.
• 4+ years: Giancarlo Stanton, 13 years, $325 million.

The 2022 free-agent class has a chance to be very special if this generation of stars makes it there. We’ll look at the top five projected players from the 2022 class; teams would be foolish not trying to extend almost all of them for eight- to 10-year deals now, before the 2018 class drastically changes the market. On the flip side, it would be really difficult for their agents to agree to long-term deals for any of them, unless they’re significantly above their present market value. Kris Bryant will separate himself from the shortstops that follow him because of his 40-plus home-run power and because he already has won an MVP award, so he immediately goes to the top of the market. All three of the shortstops have similar value. And if they signed seven- or eight-year deals now, one of those years would be non-arbitration eligible (where the teams pay them relatively little) and then three arbitration seasons -- the first of which would also be cheap -- and finally covering the first two or three years of free-agent eligibility. That’s why their overall dollars look so much lower in this exercise. None of this group belongs in the conversation with recent signings that included Christian Yelich of the Marlins and Andrelton Simmons of the Angels; they're all MVP-caliber talents.

3B Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
Age: 25 | Free Agent: After 2021
Pushed to predict: 13 years, $350 million (beating Stanton's deal)

SS Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians
Age: 23 | Free Agent: After 2021
Ballpark: seven years, $116 million

SS Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 22 | Free Agent: After 2021
Ballpark: eight years, $132 million

SS Carlos Correa, Houston Astros
Age: 22 | Free Agent: After 2021
Ballpark: seven years, $109 million

Like Lindor and Seager, Correa will end up as the face of his team, as well as one for all of baseball. He loves the game, wants to give back and has all the intangibles you look for as a leader. Astros GM Jeff Luhnow has a long history of signing young players to long-term contracts, usually below market value; but as with Lindor and the Indians, that’s not going to happen here. Correa is represented by Greg Genske from Legacy, and he’s going to make sure Correa is paid where he belongs -- near the top of his class. Don’t look for any long-term deal anytime soon. What would it take for Correa to sign an extension now? Ballpark: seven years, $109 million.

RHP Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
Age: 24 | Free Agent: After 2022

I would never sign a starting pitcher when he’s five years out from free agency. There is simply too much risk for shoulder or elbow injuries with all of them, no matter how special their talent. Going year to year with Thor and preparing for record-breaking arbitration decisions is the Mets’ best option, not only with Syndergaard, but with all of New York's young starters. It will be a decision reinforced by the experience the Mets have had over the past few years, with so many of their pitchers spending time on the disabled list.

 

So I tinkered with the chart @sealclubber1016 created (thanks for doing that!), asking for total WAR of all SS between the ages 18-21 since 1962:
1. Alex Rodriguez 12.9 (352 games)
2. Carlos Correa 8.3 (252)
3. Edgar Renteria 5.5 (393)
4. Elvis Andrus 5.3 (293)
5. Starlin Castro 4.6 (283)

And just FYI:
Cal Ripken 12.6 (first 345 games of his career, ages 20-22)

If, at his current, "ARod he ain't" pace holds, Correa'll hit 11.6 WAR when he reaches 352 games. Granted, he's about ~1.5 years older than ARod was through his first 352 games but.... yeah, he's elite-level exceptional right now, and good lord, if people don't recognize it yet, this is going to be a VERY long ten (hopefully plus) years.

 

I hope so. I said that relative to the $400M Trout contract people just assume he will deserve. I want to see it first, soonish, is that too much to ask?

 

Well, right now - if we use Fangraph's approximate value of $7.7MM per WAR - he'd be worth ~$38MM/year on the open market. He wouldn't get $38MM/year.... but he'd undoubtedly get north of $30MM if the Astros outright released him tomorrow.

Assuming just incremental yearly improvement (which is being conservative, I think) and the fact he could conceivably hit the market at just 27 years of age... Correa is in line for MLB's largest contract.... 10/$400MM would absolutely be in play.

 

He's great but he hasn't been Bryce Harper yet. Harper may get the first $400m contract and even then i think it's just one or two teams bidding against themselves to hand out that size of a contract. Much like the Rangers and Arods $250m contract.

 

But in A-Rod's case, the Rangers were actually just bidding against themselves, hahaha. Brilliant!

 

I'm guilty of this, too, so I'm not condescendingly wagging my finger - but we need to properly contextualize our expectations. Trout is on his way to becoming one of the 10-12 greatest baseball players of all-time; Harper could potentially vault himself into that conversation, too.

Those guys shouldn't be the bar; nor should we confuse greatness with money as they don't always align perfectly. If Correa is one of the 5-10 best players in baseball for an extended stretch, he'll have met his potential.

 

Bryce Harper posted an .854 and .768 OPS in his age 20 and 21 seasons. Correa posted an .857 and .811 OPS his 20/21 seasons.

He hasn't been 2015 Bryce Harper yet, but he's been as good or better than Harper was in his other 4 seasons.

 

At the rate Correa is going, Astros may not want to extend him.

 

I would like to see Correa become the best player on his team.

Jose Altuve seems intent on preventing that from happening.

 

"We all love those fog machine nights. They've brought us closer together as a team, and they've been a big part of why this season has been the most fun I've ever had playing baseball."

Doesn't sound like a guy who will want to leave. I know we had some insiders in here, but that is a pretty strong statement.

 

This is a good problem to have.

 

Just gimme a World Series title before you leave and we're good.

I much prefer the -- 3 losing seasons, multiple number 1 picks, stacked roster and farm -- method.

Rinse and repeat.

#TrustTheProcess

 

Makes me want to extend correa

 

i seriously never want to see that duo break up. by far my two favorite astros though i pretty much like every one on this team minus a couple of gas cans

 

He can't afford everybody, but he better afford a double play combination that could surpass the greatness of Biggio & Bagwell.