Rebuilding through the draft vs. trading for a potential all-star: An analysis

Great read, this is what makes Clutch Fans special.
The best part is that this trade makes the Rockets even more exciting this season.

 

It's lottery protected: if we make playoffs, it's gone. Otherwise we keep it

 

great post OP . ESPN should hire you , you are so much better than some of their so call EXPERT :grin:

 

This is an example of a 5 star thread...keep em coming...

 

I hated giving up Lamb in this trade but you have to give up good assets to get better.

The bottom line on where the Rockets were before this trade is we were going to have to over pay to get that first blue chip asset. People can argue whether or not Harden was worth paying a Max contract and giving up the assets but as you clearly pointed out in your review the draft is a big crap shoot and players of Harden's caliber aren't just floating around out there and more importantly available.

The way I see it is we now have a blue chip player to help attract another top tier player. He's also an unselfish player and doesn't have to have the ball in his hands and if he doesn't he starts crying (Carmelo) and thus becomes a cancer in your locker room. We also have our pick for next yrs draft as well. I really think Jones is going to be a player, and has BIG upside.

We now have a good/young nucleus moving forward: Harden, Jones, Asik, Parsons, and Lin are the core of this nucleus. Let's see how Motiejunas and White pan out, and Patterson is a nice asset as well (even if he comes off the bench). Let's see what Morey can do with the cap space that's currently still available along with the pick from next yrs draft.

When Morey signed Lin and Asik, although they're not all-star caliber players, they along with what we already had insured that we were going to be outside of the top five picks in the draft where you more than likely find difference makers.

We can argue this all day long but nothing is going to change what's transpired. All we can do now is watch what Morey does from here on out. It's going to pan out or it isn't. Either way we can't do anything about it.

 

Who is it committed to?

 

this team will probably be under 500 team...

so it will still be a semi tank...

hehehehe

 

Come on imagine if he didnt go for Harden a semi-proven talent...

in the hopes Lamb would develop Better, Martin would still want to play here

or the draft picks pan out

 

That's a wishful thinking.

But looking at the numbers, chances are not on our side.

I doubt with the team that we had pre-Harden, we wouldn't stink that bad.

 

I think it was a good trade for both teams. I think harden is a good player and he's young. Even with the max, its 4 yrs on a deal. I have no problem with the trade,but would've prefered to ditch patterson or morris. OKC did the right thing also. I thought they should've trade harden prior to the draft for a top 5 pick. Getting lamb as a replacement next yr and the toronto pick was a good haul. Martin this year keeps them in the mix this year. Time alwas tell the truth and we will see how good or bad this trade turns out to be.

 

Great write up. Harden will be a stud for the next 6 years. Watch his career high game highlights and you see a player who can dominate all facets of the offensive side of the ball.

This will be an exciting core to build around. I'm looking forward to the season and also see how we spend our max money in the offseason next year.

 

Atlanta has rights to our pick, but we have top 14 protection. If pick not conveyed by 2016, it becomes a 2017 2nd round pick and cash.

 

Great post and repped. However, this isn't a rebuttal to tanking. First, everyone, even the pro-tankers like me, will tell you that your odds of getting a star, especially outside the top five, are not good. That goes with the territory. To get a franchise player, you have to spin the lottery wheel a few times.

Here's the advantage of the draft - it's one of the two ways to make huge jumps in the overall value of your team. In any trade, even a lopsided one, you're giving up something to get something. In the draft and free agency, you just add a valuable asset to your team - no value lost in return. The higher you pick, the more value you gain for free.

That's why your post isn't a rebuttal of tanking - tanking and trading aren't mutually exclusive. You're correct that a lot of the top picks don't pan out, but they're still really valuable as trade bait. If there's anything we've seen over the years, it's that high lottery picks are usually the key ingredient to trading for a star. Take the Deron Williams trade - Derrick Favors probably won't amount to much, but because he had that New Shiny luster at the time, he was good enough to get the deal done.

I realize we're now getting deep into the hypotheticals, but suppose we'd tanked it hard last season. If we'd gotten a top-six pick, that might have been enough to get Orlando to trade us Howard while still leaving enough assets left over to make the deal for Harden we just did. We'd be legit contenders for the next five years. As it is, Harden may make us just good enough that we won't be able to get valuable assets to cash in for a second star. Probability of getting your core with trades and late picks = X. Probability of getting your star with trades and top picks = >X

One final point. People who like to say that you can spend years in the lottery without a star often point, as you did, to teams like SAC, LAC, MIN, TOR, etc. Those are consistently the worst-run franchises in the NBA. The lottery is always a crapshoot, but you can't seriously think that the Moreys, Pritchards, Prestis, and Bufords of the world couldn't do better.

Really, it's a question of philosophy. I personally get no more enjoyment out of a 35-win season than I do from a 15-win season. If we can't be good, I'd rather be REALLY bad to hasten the arrival of the day we can be good again. Others may prefer the pleasure of more wins now, even if it means we're less likely to contend soon.

 

Repped. This was such a great post. I read it yesterday, but forgot to rep, so I had to bump this back up so others can read this. I agree with almost all of the major points in this piece.

BTW, how does this only have 4 pages of replies so far? This definitely needs a few more pages of discussion.

 

this is one of the greatest post I have ever seen in CF.

appreciate it.

 

Best article I've read since I'm here.
BTW how you rep?

 

Hammer. Nail. Head. I too get no more enjoyment from 5-13 extra wins while still missing the playoffs. I find it interesting that after finally clearing the decks (trading off Lowry, letting Scola and Dragic walk), the big trade came through.

Now lets hope that one of the young 'uns steps it up! Even if the team isn't quite off the treadmill yet, Harden definitely brightens the day.... OK Les, you got me. I got League Pass.

 

Good work. Repped.