Rebuilding through the draft vs. trading for a potential all-star: An analysis

This is the paragraph I want to respond to because I am one of those who say that Harden is a second tier star. You are comparing him with Bosh, which is exactly what I am worried about. Bosh had good stats but Toronto was never a contender. Unlike the first tier stars such as LeBron, Wade, Paul, etc. who could carry their teams into playoffs without much help. Bosh could not.

If all we have is Harden with a bunch of very good role players (Lin and Asik could turn out to be no more than high end role players), then we are still going nowhere.

I do hope my worry is baseless. Help me out.

 

IIRC there have been exactly four stars in the current NBA who were able to carry a team of role players anywhere:

1. LBJ
2. Dirk
3. DH

Wade, Paul etc. weren't able to do it, Paul for example played with a squad that had Okafor and that dude now on the Pacers, and then he played with Blake Griffin and Deandre Jordan. Wade wasn't able to do anything before Shaq+Payton+co., and after that he didn't do anything before LBJ and Bosh came in. Let's not forget other superstars like Kobe, KG, Pierce etc. who have been unable to do anything without superstar help. TD is questionable, but he had always been playing on a stacked team so whatever.

The point is, unless you're LBJ or DH or Dirk no guy can carry a team by himself. So let's not use that as the basis for getting a star because you won't get anywhere thinking like that.

 

Great analysis, liked this part especially. There is this new mentality and way of socializing within NBA players that is also a part of a championship caliber team. Lakers, Miami, Clipps etc were combined in this manner.

I can only see this being more of a repetition within the next 20-30 years.

 

Great post.
It reminds the frustrated Rockets fans that the grass is not always greener on the other side. The draft seems really appealing. Tanking and getting a higher lottery pick seems like the solution when you repeatedly end up in no-man's land at the back of the lottery. But the reality is that outside of the top few picks, the draft is still a crapshoot. I don't think anyone on this site thinks the Rockets (or the Raptors for that matter) are going to be bad enough to get a good shot at winning the lottery. Being the worst team only gives you a 25% chance of getting the #1 pick, and this year's draft doesn't look to be producing any Lebrons or Durants. Locking up a 23 year old (basically same age as a 2nd year player who graduated from college) who has Finals and Olympic experience and is hungry to prove he can be a #1 option is a lot safer bet than counting on Toronto's draft pick to tun into a cornerstone player. Plus, we still have our own #1 to find that diamond in the rough.

 

Well said. Thanks for taking the time to write it up.

 

Wow, written like a true pro analyst. Enjoyed it. Repped

 

Excellent work - I'm glad we were able to swing for the fences and avoid some more draft-day paralysis. It certainly seems like Morey's plan of collecting assets and clearing cap space has finally paid off.

Get ready to cheer for our Rockets!

 

Excellent analysis.

Morey strikes the jackpot in his 5th year of tenure at Rockets HQ.

 

That being said, Morey will almost do better than all those GM's drafting in the lottery in all those seasons you listed. Just look at what he did with Toronto's (guaranteed) lottery pick, and even a whole season before the relevant draft!!! Amazing work by Daryl Morey.

 

I really enjoyed the read. The best part, as others have noted, is this:

"in the end, it's very simple: James Harden is the type of player that you tank to obtain."

Of all the comments I've read here since being shocked late last night when I clicked on ClutchFans, and saw Clutch's headline trumpeting the deal, you sum it up the best. Harden is the kind of player you tank to get. The guy wins 6th Man of the Year, goes to the Finals last season while playing a key role on his team, has some amazing metrics that can be found with a little digging (as many have pointed out since the trade), has wonderful size and athleticism for a shooting guard, the complete package, plays unselfishly, and he's only 23. Morey got him for two future 1st round picks and a good 2nd round pick, all a crap shoot, because you never know for certain where you will land in the lottery with a pick, or how good the player you take will end up being 3 seasons down the road, which is where Harden is now. That, along with the 12th pick of the past draft, who may end up being good (I think he will, but who knows how good?), and one season of Kevin Martin and his expiring contract. For a player you tank to get. A proven player with 3 seasons under his belt. A player ready to take that next step, in my opinion. When do you not make a trade like this? I can't believe some people are knocking it.

James Harden is the kind of player you tank to get. Well said!

edit: Just for fun!

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Or Howard

 

I agree that he's more of a second tier star with the potential to be the first fiddle, HOWEVER looking at the bigger picture, the Rockets even with Harden isn't a championship contending team. We know it, the organization knows it, and the rest of league knows it. What getting Harden does for us is bringing an attractiveness that we lacked and a potential YOUNG superstar who is only 23! With our cap space, we can continue our run for another superstar that hits free agency next year or the years after. And finally, I am pretty sure Morey recognizes that our time isn't now when the league is stacked with teams like the Lakers, Celtics, Heat, and Thunder. Let them battle it out for league supremacy and when they begin their decline (players retiring and falling past their prime), we have a team full of young talent that can capitalize 5-10 years from now when they are all hitting their prime.

 

Great post. I was thinking that it was someone from the Rockets.

 

This is his career high in points:

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It shows a lot of what he is capable of.

 

good write up. agree.

 

This.

The Rockets aren't going to be championship contenders This year or the next.

However, fast forward 3 years... Kobe retired. Half of SAS tail ending or retired. Dirk retired. Nash retired.

What are the teams that will definitely be championship contenders?

OKC? Clippers? Lakers IF they can get the right players around Dwight, AND Dwight doesn't leave?

Add the right player and the Rockets will be peaking at just the right time to be in the mix.

 

Surprised nobody mentioned that Harden was a member of the 2012 USA basketball team that won the gold. At 23 yrs old, he was the youngest NBA player (Davis was token college player) in that team. If this won't convince you of how good this guy is, nothing will.

 

Great read, thank you for analysis and time you put in.

 

So we still have our own pick next year correct? Is it ours outright?