Rebuilding through the draft vs. trading for a potential all-star: An analysis

I would unbold Gay and bold Brandon Roy, but that's just me. Great post.

 

I haven't quite decided how I feel about the trade, but I'd still like to raise a beard to the great original post.

 

This is an excellent analysis, but from what I can see there will always be haters crawling out of the woodwork no matter what Dmorey does or who we get. There will always be guys who think "Draft is god" no matter how low chances are, because well, these guys aren't really true fans and just tune out the team while they lose a crap ton of games due to tanking. They wanna do something else, see the Rox draft Shabuzz or whoever at the end of the year, and then jump on the bandwagon afterwards.

I highly doubt these pro-tankers have ever really followed a tanking team, they've never gone through a 5 year cycle of seeing your team lose a crap ton of games, get a high pick, draft some scrub, then lose a crap ton of games again.

As far as Harden goes, I don't see how anybody could crap on the trade. Harden is already the cream of the crop when it comes to players in the NBA, and unlike other "superstar" trades he's really young at 23, instead of being 28+ and "ready to win now". The only ones who are guys who don't think he's worth the max and think we have a chance of getting a Lebron/KD-caliber player if we only just wait *snicker*

 

Thanks for posting this, this is really well done. Makes me feel way better about losing the Toronto pick.

 

I don't know how the protankers are against this trade, I actually want to know what their argument is.

Harden is literally someone to tank for, 23 years old, already all star level, was a top 3 pick himself. Are you sure we are going to find this calibre of players just by tanking this season.

 

Very nice analysis. Couldn't agree more.

 

He's not a potential all-star, he's a potential superstar.

Very good post.

 

Don't forget to factor in the cap space the Rockets will have next season. Rockets don't need to win big next year; their core is so young. The oldest player on the team is Delfino, at 30, who will be a reserve.

 

this is pretty apparent right? Spurs is the only team that have his core players coming from draft and the last time I check, and the last they won is 06-07.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong but don't we still have our own pick? Guys, we're still going to be bad this year!

In Morey we trust.

 

i would unbold brook lopez before rudy gay. dude is overrated

 

OP, you are getting repped.

 

Great analysis, repped.

 

Great job. And the best part is, we're not done.

 

How about unbold both? Both are mediocre. Actually I rather have brook lopez. He is a much more efficient scorer at least.

 

Great Analysis, but neither method has to be mutually exclusive....

If you didn't notice the Rockets essentially did both, they were setting themselves up to rebuild through the draft with all the incoming young talent, and departure of veterans like Lowry, Scola, Camby, and the rest. While still looking to trade for a star, which I'm happy to say we accomplished. :grin:

What most poster, who supported tanking, didn't like was just treading water with average players with limited upside. Well at least that was my problem.

I agree that James Harden is the type of player that you tank to get, hell the projected #1 pick in the 2013 Draft, Shabazz Muhammad, best case scenario is James Harden.

Personally I think we need continue are rebuilding effort, but with James Harden as the center piece. We need to find talent to surround him via any method (Draft, Free agency or Trade) possible.

 

Great work. There is also hope one of the throw-in will make an impact. Cole Aldrich was the 10th pick in the draft only two years ago and looks to be the backup center.

 

Very nice post and analysis.

I remember doing an analysis once during a psychology course and one thing that became apparent is that human beings are terrible at estimating risk and reward.

This is because of the nature of our memory. The way neurons construct human memory, we tend to remember shocking events more than the mundane, and then assign disproportionate probability to their occurrence.

For example, plane crashes are shocking in that they are unusual, so we believe they're more likely to happen. The same way as winning the powerball is shocking, so people tend to think their chances of winning are more likely.

The draft is similar. People only remember the Lebron's and Duncan's, but conveniently forget the countless #1 draft picks that barely turn out to be role players, let alone superstars.

This skews people's views of how they assess risk and reward in terms of free agency and draft picks. They overvalue the benefit of draft picks, and undervalue the value of existing players.

Similarly, human beings are for the most part hard wired to be risk averse. So, we fear Loss more than we value Gain.

Combine the two psychological tendencies and you get people who are dreadfully fearful of making an error when something is at stake (like a contract), but enthusiastic about gambling when they have the perception of nothing to lose (like a draft pick -- something you get every year for free).

This is why most fans should NOT be GM's. And to be honest, why some GM's should not be GM's... the ability to fight one's own biases in terms of risk/reward assessment is a significant part of why some teams are habitually better than others when it comes to fielding a good roster than others.

 

Excellent analysis. Covered almost all points.

 

Wait...

Why isn't Yi Jianlian bolded?