The formula for beating the Rockets is quite clear. The regular season and the playoffs won't be the same as far as defensive intensity. We've been down this road before. We're going to have a harder time at the 3 point line in the playoffs as teams know this is where we do our damage. So, expect a well defended 3 point line.
The Rockets were putting pressure on teams with their offense in December. Our defense fed off of our offensive momentum. The Rockets were never going to be a naturally solid defensive team, but the shooting was supposed to buoy us. Unfortunately...that's long gone. We've literally been the worst shooting team in the league for 5 weeks.
Most of what you're writing isn't really the point of my argument. You're saying it yourself, we don't have the pieces to become a top team on defense, so it shouldn't be expected. Read my post again, I'm not saying we should be elite on both ends or tha we're capable to do so. I merely pointed out that too many people here hyped this team to death and didn't realize how bad the defense truly is. "Why can't we ask the same thing of the Sixers, for example? ". No one does, as they are no contenders and no one should have such expectations for them. But people here are saying we are a clear contender, which I think is wrong due to the woes on defense and relying too much on Harden on offense. "Look at the big picture. Over 50ish games, we are a well below average defensive team and the 2nd or 3rd best offensive team, and the 4th best team in the NBA despite the 29 other teams all having easier schedules. That means we are 4th and everyone else got a head start. " This would only be true if the top 3 weren't as consistent as they are (and have been last season). Being 4th best doesn't mean you're a top-notch title contender when the top 3 are so much better, especially Cleveland and GSW. "If you're feeling frustrated about this team not playing excellent defense 82 times in the regular season, then that's more on you than them." There's a distinct difference between "excellent 82 times" and mediocre all season.
I agree their defense is bad, but they're built that way with limited individual defenders. Their ceiling as a defense is not high. Offensively, they should be very good and HAVE to be very good. The Rocket "reality" shouldn't be one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the league. They have been terrible of late -- Harden, Gordon, Ariza have been abysmal since that red-hot December. If the Rockets had shot 29-30% from three yesterday (still awful), they win.
Trivia: name a team that has won nearly 70% of its games while leading NBA history in attempts and hitting 35% of them. Your statement is just not true. We are winning with that formula despite having a bottom 10 defense. We are winning people, we are winning. Just because the schedule lumped a lot of the games we're likely to lose into one month doesn't change the fact that we are a team that wins 68% of its games overall.
My exact point. Yes, we are winning but hardcore fans want to win more and be a contender at the very least. Being 4th in the league isn't the goal for a hard core fan which is exactly why trades need to happen for offensive and defensive purposes. If you are happy and content with the current Rockets' standing then good for you. Me and other are just not and want more. And lastly, as you mentioned, we are winning 68% of our games currently at the half way point of the season. There is still a chance that the first half was overachieving and our winning percentage slides even more as we regress to the mean in statistical terms.
No one on this board as far as I'm aware hyped this team's defense to death. We had good defensive games and people were excited. At the same time, we're not what our defensive record is right now, we are better than that of course. Our last 28 games are among the easiest, our defense is going to look better when all is said and done because it will have been tested evenly across the board. We are a clear contender. Not every contender is perfect. Contenders have flaws too. We are not a super team, I'll give you that. But we have a better record the the NBA champs right now. The top 3 are NOT consistent. The Spurs started off with a weak month. The Cavs January was terrible, despite Lebron James trying his best to stop the bleeding. The Warriors are the Warriors, they are an exception in NBA history. Their worst month was the first one, and that was still a great month for them. Those 3 teams have FAR FAR FAR FAR FAR FAR better talent than we do from 2nd to 15th best player. That's 94% of their roster better than us. It matters. We should not win more regular season games than them, or many of the teams below us, but that doesn't mean you don't have a good chance to beat a team (that finished above you regular season) in the playoffs. It's one of the very reasons I'm a Rockets fan in fact. On your last point, of course there's a difference. If we were mediocre defensively all season thus far, we would have a better record than the Spurs right now. That's how incredibly good we are offensively. And this front office and coaching staff is super charging our strengths while trying to hide its unavoidable weaknesses. It makes perfect sense that in January, we would not be able to hide the defense. The competition too good, the schedule too f*cked to do that. Come playoff time, we won't be at a fatigue/rest disadvantage with the opponent. Their defense will improve, ours will too. I bet ours will improve more than theirs, but that's just my personal opinion based on the observation that teams with chemistry and teams that break expectations are capable of kicking it into an even higher gear than their opponent come playoff time, unless the opponent has that thing too. And here's the other thing, this team could make the WCF with a top 15-20 defense, and that's fine. I'll take that chance any day, and I will applaud them off the court even if they get swept. We can't be angry that a honda doesn't do 0 to 60 in 1 second, but in basketball that kind of unexpected stuff happens and that's why I watch and cheer even when we're not as good as the Golden State Warriors.
The formula itself is sound. In fact...it's obviously very effective. The formula isn't the issue. The issue is the execution isn't even close to what it was when the Rockets were surging. The Rockets paid for elite shooting and are currently getting terrible shooting, and while regression was expected, they're currently incompetent. Will that improve? Probably. If December was their peak, January was probably their floor. I imagine they'll average out to somewhere in between that. And this isn't a defensive issue I don't think. The team created defensive pressure based on the firepower of their offense in December. They were blitzing teams and fed off of it. Just hasn't been the case lately. The Rockets never had the personnel to match up with teams and play sound defense.
Yep. Since and including that loss in minny Ariza - 28% Gordon - 28% Harden - 32% Anderson actually doing good at 41% Brewer - 26% Bev - 34% Dekker - 25% If your game plan is 3's and layups those percentages above will not get you any where. Looking at this percentages. Brewer is average. How pathetic is that?
That's not a hardcore fan, that's a totally unrealistic unreasonable fan. A trade is a trade. You give something up to get something. If you don't trade something good, you won't get something good. Trades which improve teams are those which give up future assets for current ones, or those which give up a poor fit for a bad fit. We don't have great future assets that would net impact vets. And we don't have poor fit players, we are a team full of players that fit perfectly. We also need another impact vet and we have flexibility this summer, and the last thing you want to do is make a trade that doesn't change your overall chances and then have those same "hardcore" fans whining about how we didn't get anything in the summer after. There is no chance that the first MORE THAN HALF was a fluke. We overachieved of course, because these players work hard and have great chemistry and that hasn't disappeared. We just faced a clump of the most difficult games. Regressing to the mean is not for a sample of 30 freaking difficult games lol. Look, here we're talking about opinions and I don't have hard facts to support what I expect and clearly you don't either. Let's see what happens.
I think February is the ceiling, January is the floor, and everything before is the mean. This team was rotating much faster on defense, taking more charges, staying in front of their man much better before January and it's important to say, our schedule was one of the top 5 most difficult PRIOR to January. We weren't just doing well against cupcake teams, this team was playing that well against excellent competition. Fatigue obviously impacts shooting, you can see the 3's are all especially short except Gordon's (who had a breather). Ariza bricks 3's like crazy when he is tired, this is statistically true for him even over a 10 year span. Harden started red hot, and now has averaged out. Defensively too, fatigue matters. Man, this isn't just fatigue, this is the most tired any players in the NBA will be for any team all season. That's where we are, it is an anomaly. You can see it, just watch closely. They are thinking late, and 1 second matters a LOT on defense and this team has to work hard to be even a mediocre defensive team. Of course what you say is true too, making 3's means you can reduce the number of times teams can attack you on the break.
I agree, but what frustrates me is that you don't need good individual defenders to at least have a solid team defense. I mean they showed us they could do it already this season. The effort on that end is just not there. I think if they dig in and get good stops/run outs, it will go a long way to getting us in a better rhythm offensively.
Every 5 game or so, we play one solid game of defense. Then everyone's like, oh we CAN play defense! We need a team that PLAY defense, not one that CAN play defense.
Defense? Hell yeah, we practiced 30 minutes on it! I know it will fall on my door step but go knock on Jeff's door if the defense isn't good. It's his fault. Spoiler
3rd mostly because a lot of good teams have been struggling of late. That being said, given the constantly shifting lineup of late due to injuries, the crappy schedule we have been given of late, and the pains of installing a new offense and defense in the middle of all of that - I'm not super worried. Regardless though, they don't look to be in the same league as the top tier teams in the NBA right now and that's ultimately what this team will be judged by. It's all of bust.
How can you confidently KNOW that February is the ceiling? Thats pure guessing and over-optimism. Going by "February" so far, its brutality ahead. This can likely be the Rockets new normal, just as likely as it being a schedule/fatigue issue. Rockets dont have anywhere to go but up, but also may not go UP THAT much. Cause for concern is definitely valid, regression has been going on for a while now.
Dekker is even worse than Brew. Would like to see Harrell take his minutes and see what he can do, gotta be better than 25%. Rest Dek until the rookie wall stops hitting him back.
Fire Keith Jones. I have no idea why the administration keeps peddling this guy as our three point shooting coach. Every year with him on board our shooting goes in the tank!
The defense is a major issue. The missed 3's ain't helping, but the Rockets didn't blow a 20-point lead in half a quarter because they bricked a few shots. It's because they simply quit at the defensive end of the floor. They gave up easy drives to the hoop. They didn't pick up players in transition. They kept foolishly fouling Hardaway and giving him and-1 opportunities. They never made any adjustments like double teaming the hot hand and making someone else beat them. They never intentionally fouled Dwight to slow down the Hawks' run. A lot of that is coaching and D'Antoni needs to get his sh-t together. Teams make runs all the time, but the coach has to call a timeout and put a stop to it.
