Proposed method to track performance of our starters

It feels bad losing 3 in a row - but hopefully the coaches got enough data to help straigten things out for the team. Our starters aren't consistent (which is to be expected for a new team) and the individual performances are decent (but decent doesn't win games) - one big improvement area is of course in the shooting.

Anyways, here are the PAC-Scores for our starters in Game 5:
JLin 9.2 (decent)
JHarden 10.8 (good)
CParsons 7.8 (just below average but an improvement from Game 4)
PPat 6.1 (dropping just below average from Game 4 - need to watch out)
OAsik 8.7 (decent - but a vast improvement over previous games).

For those calling for players changes - from what I can see from the stats, McHale is not likely to do so - he will probably still go with what he has at the moment - at this rate, the earliest chance we may see a rook get call into play might only be in Game 10 or so.

Onwards to Game 5 against the Pistons - here are my predictions based on PER score and rankings (not quite up-to-date as I don't seem to have the latest figures from HOllinger's pages)

Houston
JLin 15.33 (31)
JHarden 22.54 (1)
CParsons 9.63 (47)
PPat 12.95 (36)
OAsik 9.74 (36)
Totals 70.19 (151)

Detroit
BKnight 13.03 (43)
RStuckey 8.32 (55)
TPrince 12.3 (35)
JMaxiell 12.56 (39)
GMonroe 18.86 (7)
Totals 65.07 (179)

It looks like we may get our first home win based on this - best wishes to our team!

 

Hooray for our first home win - yep an improvement somewhat and one of our rooks got to play (nice break for Jones there).

Anyways our starters performances based on PAC-Score were:
JLin 11.3 (good)
JHarden 7.8 (slightly below average)
CParsons 8.7 (decent)
PPat 3.1 (dangerously low - need to watch out why underperforming)
OAsik 9.5 (decent vast improvement - great job - wonderful to see a center stealing 4 times wow).

Our next opponent though will be Miami Heats - sadly based on current PER score and rankings - it looks like a loss for us (but am hoping for some wow performances from our starters....)

Houston
JLin 15.29 (33)
JHarden 20.52 (5)
CParsons 10.83 (41)
PPat 12.25 (42)
OAsik 10.04 (38)
Totals 68.93 (159)

Miami
MChalmers 13.21 (44)
DWade 19.99 (8)
LJames 26.39 (1)
SBattier 7.93 (65)
CBosh 21.55 (2)
Totals 89.07 (120)

Be prepared for some clubbing by the heats if they are performing at their peak against us.... fingers crossed.

 

Such a close game - and frankly we only lost because of the referees - imagine two calls for the Heats when there wasn't any foul! Anyways, the positive thing out of all this - was that our Rocketeers were good to hold the reigning champions (yep the first quarter was lousy but hey, we got over that) - it bodes well that our team really pushed the champions all the way... I think we ought to get some respect from the referees though....

Anyways, here are the PAC-scores for our starters
JLin 11 (good)
JHarden 11.7 (good)
CParsons 11.4 (good)
PPat 10.6 (good) - first time both Chandler and Pat both scored in the good
OAsik 9.1 (decent - hooray he's still making double-doubles)

I hope our team keeps this performance up - it would win us many games (unless of course the referees have all teamed up against us...)

Anyways - for the next game against the Hornets, here are the PER score and ranking comparisons....

Houston
JLin 15.8 (44)
JHarden 26.01 (2)
CParsons 10.41 (42)
PPat 11.73 (33)
OAsik 7.63 (37)
Total 71.58 (158)

NOH
GVasquez 13.94 (39)
ARivers 7.44 (61)
AAminu 13.66 (21)
ADavis 25.12 (1)
RLopez 13.43 (17)
Total 73.59 (139)

Sigh, currently it looks like a loss - but I am hoping that our guys will improve seeing their performance against the Heats (anyways current PER score wasn't updated for Game 7) so we may still be in with a chance....

 

Good question hoopstar - PER scores aren't static - here's the most recent score that I can find - it's a complicated way that Hollinger's calculates it but after Game 7 Asik's score has improved.... (I had to click refresh constantly - not sure why my browser (google chrome keeps pulling up old stats)

Houston
JLin 15.13 (31)
JHar 19.27 (8)
CPar 11.01 (35)
PPat 11.72 (42)
OAsi 12.65 (32)
Totals 69.78 (148)

NOH
GVas 9.18 (52)
ARiv 2.07 (61)
AAmi 16.69 (14)
ADav 32.49 (1)
RLop 16.74 (21)
Totals 77.17 (149)

With the new scores - it looks to be damn close (based on ranking totals we just barely beat NOH), but based on PER scores we are trailing NOH - the best strategy for us would be to simply contain A. Davis and we should be good - Go Rockets!

 

Ugly win but hey we are again back to 0.5 - which is great. Anyway, despite all the complains about JLin (he's actually doing fine from the PAC-Score wise), it's really PPat that we need to worry about - he wasn't really contributing too much to the team, maybe, just maybe, we should consider letting Morris take his spot (just a thought)....

PAC-Scores for Game 8
JLin 11 (good)
JHar 12 (great)
CPar 7.6 (just below Avg)
PPat 4.4 (really need to buck up)
OAsi 7.8 (just below Avg - yeah, good news that he is continuing to get his double-doubles - all he needs is to just do one more block or dish one more assist he is fine).

Looking forward to the next game, using PER scores and rankings (still not updated after our game 8 - will update later if it changes), our next opponent though would be Portland

Houston
JLin 15.15 (32)
JHar 19.3 (8)
CPar 11.03 (38)
PPat 11.73 (42)
OAsi 12.66 (35)
Totals 69.87 (155)

Portland
DLil 17.17 (22)
WMat 14.61 (24)
NBat 20.14 (6)
LAld 17.67 (8)
JHic 17.03 (20)
Totals 86.62 (80)

It looks bad for our rockets, just hope that our guys can hold it together and keep it close - maybe sneak a win at the 4th Q - go rockets!

 

Sigh, what a close one - in overtime - I won't blame those that think the referees lost this one for us. But anyway am more concern with our starters performances, so here's the PAC-Score for our starters

JLin 12.4 (great)
JHar 12.7 (great)
CPar 8.9 (decent)
PPat 7 (slightly below average)
OAsi 6.9 (below average - but hey, he is still doing double-doubles so am not concerned).

So our guys are actually doing fine - so no panic please.

In the meanwhile, looking ahead to the next game against the Lakers!
Using PER scores and rankings comparisons:

Houston
JLin 14.51 (37)
JHar 21.14 (4)
CPar 11.31 (41)
PPat 11.8 (49)
OAsi 14.07 (31)
Totals 72.83 (162)

LAL
SBla 9.43 (53)
KBry 27.68 (1)
MWP 10.91 (43)
PGas 15.89 (25)
DHow 23.49 (6)
Totals 87.4 (128)

It doesn't look good for Houston with LAL seemingly starting to gel - but still hoping that we hold on to our 0.5 record by beating the lakers.

 

Sigh, an expected loss but more concern that our starters aren't really doing great for this game (except for parsons).

Here are their PAC-Scores
JLin 5.7 (dipped below average - though he had 10 assists)
JHar 8.5 (decent)
CPar 11.1 (good)
PPat 9.7 (decent)
OAsi 6.9 (below average)

Next up we would be playing the Jazz - here's the comparisons of PER score and rankings....

Houston
JLin 14.76 (37)
JHar 21.57 (5)
CPar 11.79 (39)
PPat 11.65 (40)
OAsi 14.09 (33)
Totals 73.86 (154)

Utah
MWil 16.61 (31)
GHay 16.01 (23)
MWil 12.59 (34)
PMil 20.82 (6)
AJef 19.37 (12)
Totals 85.4 (106)

It looks like another loss on paper - but am hoping that our rockets bounce back from the defeat by lakers to take this.. Go Rockets!

 

It breaks down when the PER score disagrees with the ranking comparison I.e. PER indicates team a wins but ranking indicates team b

Anyway folks I will be stopping the PAC score tracking am working on another method but it's taking me a while to establish the new baseline so apologies for the delay.

Will try to post the PER score and rankings prediction for rockets vs bull match later as well

 

Here are the PER score and ranking comparisons for Houston vs Chicago

Houston
JLin 13.29 (38)
JHar 19.92 (8)
CPar 13.4 (30)
PPat 13.56 (38)
OAsi 12.34 (39)
Totals 72.51 (153)

Chicago
NRob 17.64 (23)
RHam 14.45 (30)
LDen 15.89 (17)
CBoo 15.03 (33)
JNoa 19.6 (15)
Totals 82.61 (118)

The bulls hold the edge but am rooting for Houston to bounce back - Go Rockets!

 

hoopstar - PAC (or Peer-Averaged Comparisons) is not really a predictive tool, it is more to ascertain if our players are playing up to standard in comparison to their peers. It is more as a means for us to check if our players are at least playing below or above the mean of the league.

Prediction for games yet to happen isn't exact science as there are too many things that can happen - a sudden illness/injury, external factors (family issues, psychological issues, financial issues etc.), disagreements between star and coaches etc.

Currently am using PER score and ranking to estimate the likelihood of our guys beating the next team - sad to say our PER score and rankings aren't that high (but that's expected of a developing team) - so it would really take our guys pulling up their socks and giving it their best for a chance for them to win games - but we will (and should) still root for the team to do their best.