It’s not rocket science. If Keuchel is not far/away one of this teams best 4 starters... he shouldn’t start. As good as LMJ was in the bullpen, I want him to start if he keeps it up this year. Ditto Morton. The expectation is that your starter pitches 6-7, and the bullpen handles the rest. Between off days and matchups, some starters will be avilailable in the pen... but hopefully a rested bullpen will be just as effective.
I don't see Keuchel as a lock unless he right's the ship. He has been severely outperformed by the other 4 aces in our staff.
YMMV but I don't trust McHugh or Peacock with a playoff game on the line against the elite of the elite. I want LMJ if at all possible. I want Verlander coming in in game 4 if we have an ideal scenario like we did last year with the Yanks. I want all hands on deck in any game 7. I want every single effort made to fire every bullet in the gun, best to worst, to win that days particular game. B/c if you do that, then tomorrow becomes less important, while if you don't the season might be effectively over. It's just so completely different from everything else. The cool, thing- for me anyway in seeing JV come in to game 4 against the Red Sox and the LMJ and CFM usage is that management sees it the same way and is willing to be creative.
Game theory says this is nonsense If Keuchel and LMJ were tied in quality of starter then the 4th starter should be whoever is most ill suited for the pen. It's not a 162 game grind. It's a short sprint to win 3 or 4 games. Ideally you only want to use about 6 pitchers, total, in the series. Maybe 7. You aren't even guaranteed a game 4. It's not optimal strategy to potentially not even use your 4th best arm if the series doesn't even get there. If there is only a slight and marginal difference in quality of the starter but a profound advantage to one of the players in the pen versus the other then you start the marginally worse guy and reap the advantage of the other guy in the bullpen if he's particularly better suited for that job.
My thought is yes, he does. You, AJ, Jeff etc might differ, but that's the proper way to ask the question: 1) Does LMJ being available to pitch in an important situation of your choosing, rather than those other guys give you a better chance of getting to 3 or 4 wins in the series first if it means Keuchel having to start game 4 if you use LMJ up than vice versa. Managing that way ini the regular season would be lunacy. Managing that way in the post season makes sense.
I agree with the way you framed the question, but I disagree with the answer, assuming everyone is pitching in October they way they are today. Over the course of 4 games (estimating 36 innings), I'd much rather have McCullers pitch 6 definitively important innings and aiming for Keuchel to pitch none, than have Keuchel guaranteed to try to pitch 5 innings and McCullers possibly be superfluous and wasted. I want to maximize the valuable innings out of my best players. But this stems from the fact that I do view at least 4-5 members of the current bullpen similarly to LMJ in that role. He throws with more power, but they are used to the role and embrace it. If you don't trust the bullpen as much, the other option makes more sense.
Too early to know exactly who is in pen. Astros are likely to shove regular season starters down the throats of their opponents in both starting and relief roles. Add regular season relievers as needed for flavor.
It’s not a marginal difference right now. Don’t bullshit everybody with “game theory”. Your entire premise is based on that Keuchel is not the worst pitcher on the staff... he may even fare worse than a peacock or McHugh at this rate. I think he’s pressing. Has some major mileage on that arm, and he’s lost touch of the majority of his elite pitches.
I say the Astros carry 9 postseason relievers and don’t pull a deal for a pitcher at the deadline. Long Relief Options (3) McHugh, Peacock, the odd-man out of the playoff rotation (Keuchel/McCullers/Morton) Closer & Setup Options (3) Giles, Devenski, Rondon. (Peacock, McHugh have been successful in this capacity as well as has Sipp) Situational LHRP (1) Sipp Final (2) Spots are between the best options of Perez, Harris, Smith, Whitley, Martes, etc. Perez provides the most flexibility as he can be used in any of the 3 capacities above. Harris has looked like his old self as of late and I think a veteran would be preferred. I think they are the two favorites at this point.
Things don't look good for him, but there is still time for Keuchel to find his groove. If Astros stay healthy, someone good is going to be pissed.
I was responding to what you said which was utter nonsense. You said if keuchel isn’t clearly one of the best 4 starters he shouldn’t pitch. That’s absurd. I’m stating that’s a silly way to conceptualize how the roster is filled out. I’m not making an argument that keuchel should be rostered no matter what. I’m saying the standard is not what you’d said it is
I'm leaning toward the "don't make a move" side as well. I think we have more than enough depth and elite (starting) arms to get out way through an inning or two in a clutch postseason game. I'd rather not give up prospects, unless they are for prospects that have little to no value on our squad in the next 2-3 years (e.g. lifetime AAA players).
Agreed. Stuff can change. Guys get hurt. I just don’t know if Dallas is going to turn it around on a dime. Maybe he takes a few starts off to collect himself. He will still get to pitch every 4th day for now, but he’s going to have to be a lot better if the other guys continue as is.
Cool. That’s not what you said though. I’m out on this discussion. I can tell you the FO will f tame the decision the way I said it though. I have no idea what their series odds will say about optimized use of the arms we have after they get done crunching numbers, but that’s the way they will frame the issue.
