I'm still not sold on Keuchel, he's been brilliant this year but I've also seen him be pretty bad in previous years. It'd be great if he could continue to pitch at this level throughout his career and be that ace but guys like Lucas Harrel have taughy me to tamper my expectations.
His K rate isn't an anomoly though. For his career in the minor leagues he has averaged almost a strike out an inning and has had a ratio of 3/1 strike outs and walks. His sample size in MLB is quite small. I don't know how good he will be long term, but I do know that having one of the top 10 single pitches in baseball (his curve) gives him a lot of rope to be a success and could be enough if he keeps guys off base.
all good replies regarding McHugh. Only time will tell and frankly, I'm glad I'm not the one making the decisions. They only get harder and harder as the team gets more talented and players are waiting in the wings.
Harrell was different due to his walks (led the majors last season in walks). The guy just lost his control. Dallas has been not walking people at an amazing rate, and much lower than his career average (1.8 vs 3.4 /9IP). Personally, I expect Dallas to regress slightly soon, but to still be a sub 3 pitcher. I think he will be a solid #3 with #2 potential on a good team.
Agree on Harrell. I agree on some regression on Keuchel...I am thinking Keuchel's ERA,FIP,xFIP will probably end up in high 2's or low 3's. This is still No. 1 Starter material.
Hell yeah it is! But I think that his .270 BAbip may go up slightly and I think his HR/9 may go up. Then again, that would maybe put him in the lower 3's? Still great numbers. I think that he will be a great starter, I just think that ground ballers can have bad runs, and he hasn't seen one yet this year. A big reason for that is his lack of walks. If he keeps the walks down, I feel like his regression won't be as bad as others would think.
Most ground ball pitchers have low strikeout rates. There were 3 or 4 pitchers last year with >50% GB with better than average K%-BB%. Keuchel is in very rare territory. Ground ball pitchers tend to have a lot of guys on base. When they have a run of giving up HRs, they tend to give up runs in bunches. Keuchel is going to have games when he gives up HRs, but the strikeouts and low walks do a good job of limiting the base runners. Granted, I say this and he did have a bad run of luck last year.
Right now Keuchel has the best pitching WAR in the majors, so projecting regression certainly isn't going out on a limb. Having said that, I just can't see him regressing to anything worse than a good #3. His numbers were all trending in the right direction last year, so it isn't as if his improvement is completely out of left field. If he can continue to get ground balls and avoid walks he's going to be very effective. His curveball seems to generate an extremely high number of harmless grounders.
I am more and more sold the longer he keeps it up. What DOES scare me long term is that he is SO dependent on excellent control that a funk or change in delivery could have dire consequences.
Gonna be interesting to see how he comes back from a poor 1st inning. A front line starter can have that inning, then throw up a string of zero's
Just one week later and Fontana has a broken hand and Correa appears to have a season ending injury. Here's my adjusted/more realistic projection to OP if anyone cares (I still think this is wildcard competitive!): LINEUP: Adjustments to projected stats and changes to lineup. RF: Springer (R) 30 hr, 85 runs, 90 rbi, 18 sb, Gold Glove, .860 ops DH: Cruz (R) 27 hr, 85 rbi, .830 ops 1B: Singleton (L) 22 hr, 80 rbi, .810 ops SS: Villar (S) 30 sb, 25 2b, 8 hr, .650 ops CF Fowler, 2B Altuve, RF Springer, DH Cruz, 1B Singleton, LF Santana, C Castro, 3B Dominguez, SS Villar (maybe more realistic to slot Santana after Castro and Domingez) BENCH: Replace Fontana with Kike Hernandez IF/LF: Kike Hernandez .700 ops ROTATION: Adjust Keuchel and McHugh down a bit more. 1. Keuchel (L) 3.35 era, 1.15 whip 2. McHugh 3.65 era, 1.20 whip Even with the Astros coming back down to Earth I see reason for pursuing some help from outside the organization to expedite winning.
Looks good but call me a pessimist I don't think it would be wild-card competitive. It's got tantalizingly high power upside and good speed but has too many streaky hitters. That's the Astros' big problem right now. If the bats wake up then they look really impressive, but they're prone to all be quiet at the same time.
Depending on the development of Santana and Tucker the rest of this year, there is a pretty good chance we will sign a LF that can also play a little 1B to a 1-2 year deal (someone like Morse). The only way you can go for a longer deal is if you've already decided you aren't resigning Fowler after next season. There is zero chance Albers will be back as we have cheaper options. I do think there is a good chance we sign a closer though unless the team decides to convert Folty. Next year is going to be a lot of fun. My way to early prediction: CF Fowler 2B Altuve RF Springer 1B Singleton DH Morse LF Santana 3B Dominguez C Castro SS Villar SP Keuchel SP Feldman SP Cosart SP McHugh SP Foltynewicz CL Street SU Qualls SU Fields MR Tropeano MR White LH Sipp LH Oberholtzer Trade: Also, instead of signing a LF free agent, they could trade their B prospects (Peacock, Carter, Buchanan) that are blocked for an arbitration guy like they did for Fowler.
Not sure why you'd think that. He pitched great before injury. Not many relievers in our pen over the past 5 or so years can make that claim. I'd say he's likely to re-sign, if I had to guess.
Sure. Why can't they sign both (not that closer is a problem, anyway)? And why would Albers be particularly expensive?
Looking the roster for next season. The rotation next season will likely be some combo of McHugh, Keuchel, Obie, Feldman, Nitro, Woj ,Folty and Appel. I doubt we go after one of the big free agents. As for the lineup 2B, DH and RF are set in stone. Castro while disappointing, has still been a solid MLB catcher and Singleton will certainly be back to start the season at least. I think we bring back Fowler, but I can see a reasoning for moving him. I really hope they don't though. That leaves the 3 positions they could address 3B, SS and LF. I would like to see them go after Cruz and then trade for Alexei Ramirez. With that, and few more bullpen tweaks I think we could compete next season. I'm not sure what kind of contract Cruz will want, signing him may not be a good option given his age, we shouldn't do anything stupid but a 3 or 4 year big money deal would be worth it IMO
Nothing for nothing, but it would be sweet to see Cruz in an Astros uniform stick it to the Rangers for a couple of seasons :grin:
It's really too bad that Castro regressed so much. If he had just played the way he did last year, we'd be looking even better for this year and next. Maybe it's cause I drafted him on fantasy team and he'll be back to his 2013 ways next year.
