Prediction of 2014 win total based on team stats and history

Not seeing 59 wins this year. Maybe if we played in the east.

In the west we have to deal with OKC, SA, Clips, Memphis, Golden State, Denver, a Dallas team that always gives us problems regardless of how good they are, Portland will be better this year too. If the T-wolves are healthy this year they will be dangerous and serious playoff contenders too.

On top of it, our division is the toughest in the league. San Antonio didn't even win 59 games last year and you could still argue that they're a much deeper team than us and they definately have more experience.

I think 54 or 55 wins is an obtainable goal, but even that is going to be difficult. If either Harden or Howard miss decent time I don't think we win more than 50 games.

 

Long reply........

First, you go strictly by last year's RAPM performance, Dwight was a -0.78 on offense, while Asik was -0.82. In other words, Asik and Dwight had virtually the same impact on offense.

A lot of things have to go our way for him to have the same offensive impact or even better than Smith (-0.12) or Parsons (-0.25). If you expect him to beast on PnR's, he will have to 'buy-in' on what's best for the team and NOT his individual development on post-ups.

His numbers of PnR's to Post-ups were roughly 1:4 and efficiency was 1.29 and 0.74 respectively. Only about 2.2 PnR's/game ended with Dwight. He will not have a positive impact by scoring only 3 points on PnR's and 6.3 points/game on 8.5 possessions in post-ups. The gap between Asik and Dwight of Lakers was very little, roughtly one point/200 possessions. If we project wins by using Dwight of Lakers, it will be more like Asik playing 48 min instead of 30 min/game.

However, Dwight was injured coming into the season. He was unhappy and played under fans and media pressure. He had an awful year by his standard.

Two unkown factors that will determine our wins this season:

1. Which Dwight are we getting? If we somehow get Dwight who is half way between Magic and Lakers, we can pick up about 3 more wins. A 2010-11 Dwight will give us 6 more wins. This is only counting on Asik/Dwight difference.

2. How will Asik and Dwight play together? This is also the key to how far we go into the playoffs. Dwight, Harden, and Asik are the most impactful players on the team. Ideally you want them on the court as much as possible. If Dwight and Asik can't co-exist, their impact will not only be greatly reduced but we will be forced to play G Smith, TJone or DMo whom are no where near as Asik.

There is a way you can directly translate individual RAPM into MOV (Margin of Victory) on per game basis.
Lets say if Player X played 24 min/game for the season, and his RAMP was +6 for 200 possessions. His contribution to MOV would be almost +3/game (our pace was roughly 193 possessions/game). If you add all the players up, you have a MOV for the team. And by using Morey's Pythagorean Win model or 2.54*MOV+41=wins prediction, we can calculate wins for next season. Here are my calculations under different circumstances:

Default values for MP/game:
Harden 32
Howard 30
O Asik 24
J Lin 32
Parsons 32
Beverley 20
Garcia 18.5
G Smith 18.5
T Jones 15
Donatas 15
Brooks 3
------------
240 min total

Same performance as last season just by adding Dwight of Lakers:
MOV (Margin of Victory/game) +6.0
Wins projection: 55 wins.

Considering that young players will improve, based on Influence of Player's Age by Engelmann.
Improvement:
Harden
Asik
Parsons
G Smith
DMo
T Jone

Remain the same:
Dwight
Brooks

Players on decline: Garcia

MOV: +7.2
Wins: 59 wins (Which is what OP's estimated)

Dwight of 2010-11 with improved roster:
MOV: +9.7
Wins: 65 wins

Those wins might seem a lot but you have to remember that our MOV was +3.5 and actually underperformed by 5 wins on paper. Dwight of Lakers isn't valued at 10 wins; it's actually 5 wins and mostly contributed to the 18 min that Asik was off the court.

 

We should be 10 games better this year. If course the 4 spot is a concern. Also the PG spot needs consistency.

 

It would be a bad assumption to go off last year's RAPM for Dwight. He wasn't healthy for half the season. And PnR in LA basically stood for Pick and Rebound.

My estimate is around 56 wins if everyone is relatively healthy. I'm going to assume Dwight goes back to around 90-95% of his 2011 form.

More important to me however is how this team is going to stack up in the playoffs. What I see with the naked eye, before any games or playoff series unfold, is a team that should beat Memphis. With Dwight and Asik on the interior, we negate Memphis' greatest strength. So, I'm pretty sure this team takes out Memphis ... even if Memphis has homecourt advantage.

OKC - Looks like a toss-up to me. As a homey, I'd really favor us...unless OKC makes another significant move. I do think Reggie Williams is going to explode this year however...making OKC even tougher.

SA - I don't think we have enough experience to beat them IF they are all healthy. However they are aged, and the little ding to Tony is what cost them the Finals. So, the chance of them being dinged at the end is great. BUT...if they are healthy...they are the team to beat in my opinion..still.

Clips - I truly believe that despite all the depth they added they didn't get significantly on the interior which is where their Achilles heal is. UNLESS Blake takes a huge step forward...we are better than they are in a 7-game series.


We win every other playoff matchup.

 

Why no one mentioned Delfino?

Losing him isn't so easy to replace. Garcia may do the similar role, but doubt he will provide the same production. Hopefully one of the 3 point shooters turns out good to fill in.

 

OK

Delfino was a spark many times for us but we have upgraded the bench a lot this off season to more than make up for Delfino. What I am looking at mostly is the starting 5.

 

If Reggie Williams explodes as you say, the Rockets will be tough for OKC to beat.

 

I think he meant Reggie Jackson. A lot of people think he's primed to blossom into a sixth man of the year candidate in OKC after his performance in the playoffs and with Kevin Martin gone.

 

Meh- I dont see minuses factoring in higher quality of competition.

Essentially every team (except for the Jazz) in the West got significantly better, and some mediocre teams are going to be healthier. I would assume that will bring the win total down some with every team in the West, not just the Rockets.

 

anything less than 55 wins is a disappointment.

 

I remember Morey said on the radio, probably around the trade deadline that he believed the roster would improve by 5 wins just based on chemistry and play improvement because they are so young.

If he believed that, than there should be no reason an Orlando version of Dwight wouldn't improve us by 5-6 wins. I'll say 57 wins and 3rd seed.

 

thanks for the catch.

 

The Rockets should be improved at every position next year.

Howard started playing like superman again the last 5 weeks of the season. Which was completely predictable give his back surgeon's estimate of Howard's recovery time. Howard will probably again be the best center in the NBA next season by a large margin. A significant upgrade. To demonstrate Howard's impact I have chosen a fairly basic measure of performance; the +/- over the last 5 seasons.

LeBron James +3,330
Dwyane Wade +2,055
Dwight Howard +1,989
Tim Duncan +1,872
Kobe Bryant +1,822

While TJ did well in the summer league, D-Mo is spending his time training and playing with his national team, which will soon compete against the best teams in the world. So fans should have a reliable indicator of D-Mo's improvements before next season begins. Hopefully the high level competition will allow D-Mo to improve his game more than would usually be seen during the off season.

We have 2 data points and 1 delta to estimate where Parsons will be next season. A reasonable improvement in 13/14 to Parsons game is 50% of his improvement last season over his rookie year puts Parsons line next season at 18.5/5.6/4.2. That is one heck of an offense for a small forward who is a defensive plus also.

Harden. Need I say more? If he tightens up his defense and improves ball movement from last season? Well he is already a top 3 SG (at least).

Lin, like Howard came into last season recovering from an injury. He, like Howard improved as the season progressed. Hopefully he will be quicker, stronger and a better shooter next season.

Any bench that can trot out Asik, Bev and 3 good role players is going to be one of the best benches in the NBA.

Last season they won 45 games. I see +5 wins due to having a stable roster (and not having to blow up the team strategically as happened two days before the season started last year), +5 wins due to maturation of the roster, +3 wins adding Howard, and +3 wins with Asik providing 48 minutes of paint protection. +16 wins. 61 wins.

 

I going to go with 55 wins this year. Wild card is if Dwight is healthy for the full season. I still that OKC and SA are top two in the west but we're definitely closing in on them.

 

can't give a number really, but I think we'll finish ahead of SA.

 

Dave... you're crazy.

 

I see them winning 50-55 games this year, 4th seed. Top 10 defense and top 5 offense.

 

Not sure about the Grizz. I worry about playing them. I think they're too physical for us (even with Howard and Asik) and too good on defense. I can see Randolph going off on Motiejuanas.

 

59??? Damnn lol hopefully but well see