Predict Capela's salary in Restricted FA and whether we match!

With Morey, he will be fine to pay Capela within the Market. That is all that matters to Morey. If he gets the market, that just means Capela can be moved more easily and that is all that matters if the team needs to pivot.

Thing is, Capela will be a RFA (vs a UFA) and that is a BIG distinction. Couple that will be big SUPPLY of UFA Cs + the DEMAN being LOW for C's and that depresses the market greatly.

 

Steven Adams signed last summer for 4yrs / $100m. Seems reasonable to assume that his contract is the current market maker for role-playing, centers coming off their rookie-scale.

If I'm an agent, I'm definitely pointing to Adams' contract during negotiations.

fwiw: Gobert's extension signed in 2016 which started this year was for 4yrs/$102m, but with $2m more in incentives each year.

$2 million unlikely annual bonus (per @BobbyMarks / spotrac)

• All-Defensive 1st Team bonus for $500,000 [Achieved 2016-17],
• $250,000 defensive rating less than 100,
• $250,000 rebounds per game
• $1 million All-Star team starter or reserve (but not as injury replacement selection)

​

 

yeah i see CC also having a ton of incentives that he could possibly obtain in the future. all star appearance, rebs leader, blks, all def team etc.

 

Morey will say, point taken. Investigate the "current" market. Will Capela be as valued as an RFA on a "Hardenless" team? We'll see.

 

Lol you're the one who doesn't understand how it works. If it was that easy to keep everyone you want then KD wouldn't have had to take a freaking discount just so everyone on GSW can all play together. If all it would cost was "Roster Flexibility and the owner" then KD wouldn't have had to take less money.

Just do the math, renouncing everyone of their players the Rox have 80M in capspace. The cap is like what 102M? That's like 22M in capspace when you have Ariza and Luc worth around 7M each, Cp3 worth 25-30M and Capela anywhere from 12-25M. Even if Tillman is willing to pay the lux tax is he gonna pay 30M in lux tax? Wtf.

Your scenario of Jabari+Thong for Capela and Ariza is unrealistic because Capela is already a free agent, even if he is restricted. Why will teams even give up talent for Capela when they can make an offer for him directly? Sure the Rox can match, but teams know they are capped out and need space to resign Luc, Cp3 and Ariza. Why do they need surrender assets when they can get Capela for just capspace? Capela might not even want to go a shitty team and just sign a qualifying offer to become an UFA nxt year. He has very little to no trade value at this point.

These are the reasons why Anderson has got to go. He costs too much when we need to pay other players. His 18M salary would already be enough to make a good offer for Capela or keep Cp3 combined with the capspace already remaining and maybe even keep 1 of Ariza or Luc. Any of these combinations are worth more than Anderson by himself.

 

i thought it was a given the rockets are going to be over the cap. you're not expecting them to stay under are you? all playoff caliber teams are over. GS and Clev are currently at $137 mil each

if the season for the rockets continues as it is, the really only person im worried about losing is moute as far as $ goes bc hes definitely worth more than the minimum hes playing at.

 

Yup. One way or another, we are going to be about 30 million over the cap very, very soon, and operating over the cap for the rest of time.

Trades, trades, trades.

"Getting rid" of Ryan Anderson would be incredibly stupid for a multitude of reasons, on and off the court.

 

KD took less money for long term roster flexibility and to save his owners luxury tax money...

Um, that's EXACTLY what I said would be the deciding factors.

You're literally just repeating what I said. Notice how I said Tillman?? What's confusing here??

Because the Rockets would match, and DM has already said they absolutely would, whether its true or not...

Oh, there you go, lol

No, that's not right.

#1 - the Rockets can match. They most likely will. They aren't going to lose Capela to resign Luc or Ariza. Not when they are able to pick up the Lucs and Tuckers of the world at the price they get them. Ariza will be in that group in the future, too... maybe not next contract, but soon. They probably also value Capela above Ryan Anderson. So there's still the move Anderson for cap space play, which will be more likely next offseason. There's also the CP3 discount, maybe he takes one, after all KD did, right?

#2 - there won't be as many teams with cap space, much less max cap space, this offseason, though they will exist.
See this for example: hoopshype.com/2017/09/14/only-five-nba-teams-project-to-have-cap-space-for-2018-offseason/
Teams can create cap space, as always, but relative to the # of teams going into the offseason with cap space the last two years, there's just less.

#3 - we've seen RFA go a few ways. One is overpaying to try and really pry them away. This was the Nets strategy of the last few years. I suspect we'll see less of this because of the lowered cap space available. Another is RFA that go longer than anticipated with no real deal in front of them because teams basically know the current team will match. This was especially true when there was the full week to match. Since its been shortened it doesn't happen as much... BUT, with the exception of Parsons, DM's RFA seem to go this route more than the other.

#4 - A team that acquires Capela would also acquire his bird rights and RFA status. Milwaukee is the perfect example. The Bucks already have $102 million of active roster cap salary for next year. The absolute only ways they can add a player like Capela is by either (i) trading for him now, or (ii) dropping enough salary for cap space in the offseason or before the trade deadline. Basically they'd need to trade for him. This is true of other teams that aren't anticipated to have cap space.

#5 - Capela could become a URFA, but its also more likely that he signs for a lot of money, lol. The very few examples of players that have gone this route - I guess Monroe and now Nerlens Noel... I wouldn't say its exactly worked out. Certainly from a monetary point of view, given the time value of money, given its a whole year of their career being heavily underpaid, going Unresitricted is a losing proposition for these players. But that's besides the point. Cause a crap team is unlikely to want him right now anyway. Lakers are saving cap space. Phoenix wouldn't want him. Etc. To the extent one might, as I've already noted, the Rockets need to get value back. Again, as I've already noted, we're talking about a limited # of teams that might have an interest anyway just in terms of where they are as a team. Like Milwaukee. Where I suspect he'd happily resign the right deal.

So a Capela trade is unlikely. But not because he's not valuable, or a RFA.

Roster, cap and flexibility definitely need to be considered in the offseason. But we have no idea what Tillman wants to do, what DM is thinking, etc. I can definitely see Anderson getting moved. I don't really see him getting moved solely for cap flexibility to resign Capela. I think if they want to resign Capela, they will. If they want to move Anderson, keeping in mind cap flexibility going forward generally, they might do something to get something in return.

In other words, while he is overpaid, Anderson is our starting PF and brings one particular skill-set that helps make the offense really go. DM tried to trade him in the offseason, particularly to bring in Melo, which basically would have replaced Anderson with more salary. DM is much better at the cap then we are. I suspect if he has a mandate that he can't spend more than x,y,z he'll find ways to get that done without compromising roster. Also, bear in mind, the Rockets could STILL move Anderson anytime before the next trade deadline for $0 in return effectively by attaching another asset, to fall back under the luxury tax caps, if they so need to do at that point in time.

Anyway, so, basically, I kind of understand how it works, lol

 

too bad chinese men can't jump like capela.

 

I don't wanna get carried away but if we win the championship the rockets will match Capela to any offer he gets. But also expect him to get offered a super max by some troll team. IMO, it's worth it. Capela hasn't even reached his peak and could be argued as a top 3-5 center in the league. Lock in Harden, Capela, CP3 and then sign all the mid-level vets chasing rings. Could we see a lebron accepting a mid-level is the real question?

 

no

 

Itll be a wait and see approach I can see a lot of teams trying to screw us up and give Capela a max early in free agency. If we are going to sign a big dog we need to do it quick before another team gives Clint the max. If we wanna match Clint. We will have to first sign a free agent. PG or Lebron, then Cp3 then finally match Capela. Very similar to us only matching parsons if we get bosh. Cuban will definitely give Clint the max, just to make moreys life difficult

 

CP is always in touch with Lebron so...i'm pretty sure we'll know very early if he wants to be here or not.

 

Wow. No one in the NBA is going to offer $27.5m per season to Capela imo. I think we would probably match anything up to $20-22m.

 

We can be over the cap but we can't reach luxury tax. Tillman said he will only pay lux tax for a finals team.

 

ok. so im not exactly sure what the issue is here

 

I'll be shocked if Morey isn't lining up a list of trades to pursue, with Clint going out. Take Clint's terrific stats (inflated by Harden and CP) and all that juicy potential everyone sees in him, and, instead of shelling out for it, cash it in.

 

Adams was the summer of 2016... not a fair comparison

The cap bump and weak free agency class resulted in players getting crazy deals

what happened in the much more relevant 2017 market?

Nerlens Noel... the most apt comparison to Capela... who turned down 4 years $70 million.... then found out what the market was for athletic-defense first centers with limited offense ... 1 year $4 million.... the market is wayyyy down on these guys now. Teams are realizing you can't tie up too much of your cap in such limited players. What they bring isn't worth their salary.

 

Nerlens Noel found out for sure.

 

yeah hes trying to change a team with a top record in the league and have been playing fantastic bball. typical morey