[Podcast] Morey on 610 today: talking Lin, free agency & expectations for next year

Actually a thought I have had for a few weeks. Granger, if Plans A & B fail to reach fruition, sounds Rockable to me.

It becomes more doable the further along Indy gets in the p/o's IMHO.

 

I disagree with your thesis personally.

That being said, If you look at the roster coming back next year at this point the only players coming back at the 1, 2, & 3 spots at this point are-

PG: Lin, Beverley
SG: Harden
SF: Parsons, Anderson

McHale could very well be thinking that both PG's are going to play together quite a bit next season due to the lack of depth at the perimeter positions.

They only have 15 roster spots If you add just one free agent(most likely a big), the lone rookie, Aldemir, AND are declining the team option for Garcia, Delfino, and Brooks to sign that free agent, the Rockets will have just 2 open roster spots that will probably go to either D-leaguers or veteran minimum players they sign on one year deals.

Most likely BOTH Lin and Beverley are going to be relied on to play heavy minutes next year regardless just due to almost certain lack of roster depth at the 1, 2, & 3 position.

 

I agree clearly he would sign Dwight and CP3 if that were a possibility. That's the just the way he rolls. Catch the the biggest fish you can and then figure out how to filet it later. I just don't think that is very likely. Both LA teams have already said they are committed to signing those guys back.

As for Milsap and Granger maybe your right about Milsap who I am not crazy about anyway but I think a healthy Danny Granger is still a near all star. And he fits the Lebron analogy. He is a former all star and if he comes back healthy the guy fits in perfect with a small ball lineup. Better than perfect because he has played PF before and is a big upgrade over Delfino. Huge. Of course there are always better options. Certainly you would take Lebron over him. But what realistically is available on the trade market is better. I mean what can we get without giving up Harden.

Remember you don't want to gut the team and give up major assets. ANd remeber Morey kept using the word opportunistic. Getting Harden was opportunistic because they had to trade him or risk getting nothing for him Well Indiana is in that same boat. Grnager is a luxury they can't afford and he becomes a free agent at the end of next season. So if Morey is convinced he is healthy and he is back to his old form than you can be sure he has him on the table. That's the point, Morey is looking down every avenue to improve this team. Unlike many on this board he doesn't blinders on only for Dwight and CP3. He is absolutely looking at Granger too. Where that is on list of priorities only he knows but he is not foolish enough to not consider it. A healthy Granger makes us better. That's all it really boils down to. SO do a lot of other players. But granger belongs on that table too and he may be getable. CP3 is not.

 

I like your analysis. Sounds very reasonable to me.
After all the starting lineup with Lin and Bev on the court seemed to work and McHale seemed to like it.

 

I appreciate the reply old man rock. I guess I never considered granger as one of those all star pieces morey was talking about. When morey was talking about being able to take advantage of opportunities, I think he meant keeping max cap room just in case another harden deal came unexpectedly. I think granger is a big risk coming off injury, can he play at the same level? Look at Lin, he's struggling to regain the same level after injury. Some players are never the same after injury.

 

What's the Pacers' salary situation? They only have $49 million committed next year. Even if they re-sign West to his current salary of $10 million/yr, they'll be well below the luxury tax threshold. And Granger is an expiring contract, so dumping him won't save them much. I think the Pacers are in win-now mode and will only trade Granger for comparable talent.

The Lakers want talent, but no long-term salary that will interfere with their 2014 cap space. They have $79 million in committed salary next year before re-signing Dwight. With Dwight, their payroll hits $100M+. With Kobe's injury, it's hard to justify that luxury tax bill for a team that won't compete. They might just amnesty Gasol outright.

 

Agree - I could see Bev getting Jarrett Jack minutes if he continues his playoff performance into next year.

If Rocket don't get a backup SG, then I see minute distribution below.

96 minutes could breakdown to
38 Harden, 32 Lin, 26 Bev

If Hardens plays the 3, Bev could move to the 30 mpg mark.

 

He's let the odd thing out, one example is he doesn't care about the assist stat, he considers a stat that counts the number of passes to quality looks because a player making a bad shot nets you an assist and a player missing a good shot or getting fouled means you don't get one, none of which have anything to do with the passer.

 

Granger would be a fit as a holdable contract for next season.........DEPENDING......on what he would cost us trade wise. If we strike out in free agency and on a Pau trade, then if we could get Granger for one (just one) of our good young PFs, then it might make some sense. But anymore than that for his 1-yr deal with no guarantee that he would re-sign or that we could trade him later on...would be too much.

 

Two very important stats that we know the Rockets track but are not publicly available are the hockey assist (player who passes it to another player who gets the assist), and the creation of "scoring chances" (passes which lead to a good shot which is missed). Both of these stats would likely make Jeremy Lin a more valuable player than Pelton's WARP, which only uses box score assists.

Additionally, one might suspect that the Rockets are also tracking drives, considering they are subscribed to the SportVU tracking system. One could imagine that the Rockets assign a value for a "successful drive", that is, one which causes a rotation, or a defender to be out of place. Even if this rotation doesn't end up creating a scoring chance, it might still be deemed as adding value.

Much in the way that Golden State can find athletic, 3-point shooting wings between the couch cushions, you have to feel pretty confident about the Rockets' ability to evaluate the value of a PG. Brooks/Lowry/Dragic/Lin/Beverley is a pretty good haul in the time that Morey has been GM.

 

I doubt Indiana fans would agree with that pricing. Remember when we got Harden, now many people on here moaned about giving up both Lamb, Martin and the pick?

 

That's really interesting.
I watched a Mark Cuban interview today and said Dallas has 5 assistants sitting on the bench, each with a couple of specific stat tasks like maybe watching which side of the floor Lebron likes making certain post moves from.

Morey has a team of 20 or so stat guys. I wonder what they are tasked with recording every game. How much acceleration Lin has going to his left as opposed to his right?

 

It's not so much a luxury tax issue, but an opportunity cost issue.

They owe $49M on 9 guys-- without David West, Tyler Hansbrough and DJ Augustin, a starter and 2 other rotation players. If they keep Granger, they basically would not have any cap room after re-signing West. If they somehow dump all of Grangers $14M, however, they would have the flexibility to both re-sign West and chase a higher-level free agent or acquire a player via trade. The question is whether there is someone out there that they'd want to chase.

 

Excellent post. That's great information and a great read.

I think you're right. Lin's value under Morey's deep analytics is probably way up from the public advanced stats. It just seems he has a whole lot of hockey assists, drives that collapse the defense and assists that Asik fumbles or three point shooters don't make the shot.

 

once again...........

MOREY IS NOT INTERESTED IN ANDREW BYNUM!

please stop.

 

He had a mediocre season. Morey's not going to do anything to let the fans know he's proud of everybody, including Lin. But to sit here and assume Lin's gonna automatically improve after a disappointing mediocre season is just bias. He needs to improve but we don't know if he ever will. You label him smart, but how exactly? The guy commits the dumbest turnovers at the worst times. In the preseason he was outplayed by Livingston and in the playoffs it was Beverley.



Until his shot and decision making improves he'll only be a seen as a cash cow here to generate a "diverse" group of fans

 

Dwight Howard has absolutely nothing to do with the PF spot.

 

How is it bias to assume Lin will improve? It's not like he's a seasoned veteran who has played a ton of minutes in the NBA and has reached his ceiling. It seems you're the biased one.

 

Regarding Granger, I could absolutely see Morey looking to obtain him as a 1 year stop gap if the Rockets strike out on the DH12/CP3 type players. Being able to "roll over" that cap value/flexibility is key. In the Granger situation, they get value for the player right away, and then can also trade that player at the trading deadline as a 14M expiring, or then just let him walk in 2014 and have that cap room available again.

Notice that Morey said position doesn't matter with regards to getting that all-star level talent. People can be moved or shifted. Trades can be made. It's just about getting the best value.

 

The only free agents they'd want to chase are CP3 and Dwight. They're not going to dump Granger to sign someone like Josh Smith, Millsap, or Iggy. Granger is just as good as those guys and expires when George becomes a free agent. And if they wanted to pursue a player via trade, Granger's as good a trade chip as there is. I really don't see us getting him easily.