I took a look at the remaining schedules of the teams in west in thick of the playoff race - i excluded OKC since I personally believe that they'll be a lock for the #1 seed barring an extended injury to Durant. I also excluded the Grizzlies and Mavs as they are fighting for the eight spot and maybe they'll move up fast (the way memphis has after Gasol returned) but for right now I am looking at the 6 teams ranked 2-7 in the west. Now I placed some assumptions on what I considered a "playoff team" In the east I considered the Pistons and the Knicks a "playoff team" since right now they are a game and 1.5 games out of the 8th seed. In the West I considered Dallas a playoff team since they are in a virtual tie with Memphis at the moment. Here is a breakdown of the games for these 6 teams: [Note: Playoff Teams - Both West/East combined Road Playoff - Both West/East combined on the road WCP/ECP - West/East Conference Playoff Teams WC/EC - All Western or Eastern Conference teams (incl. playoff)] <table> <tr height=20 style='height:15.0pt'> <td height=20 class=xl157984 align=left width=136 style='height:15.0pt; width:102pt'>Team</td> <td class=xl157984 align=left width=119 style='width:89pt'>Games Remaining</td> <td class=xl157984 align=left width=44 style='width:33pt'>Home</td> <td class=xl157984 align=left width=38 style='width:29pt'>Road</td> <td class=xl157984 align=left width=82 style='width:62pt'>Back to Back</td> <td class=xl157984 align=left width=95 style='width:71pt'>Playoff Teams</td> <td class=xl157984 align=left width=85 style='width:64pt'>Road Playoff</td> <td class=xl157984 align=left width=75 style='width:56pt'>WC Playoff</td> <td class=xl157984 align=left width=69 style='width:52pt'>EC Playoff</td> <td class=xl157984 align=left width=76 style='width:57pt'>WCP Home</td> <td class=xl157984 align=left width=70 style='width:53pt'>WCP Road</td> <td class=xl157984 align=left width=70 style='width:53pt'>ECP Home</td> <td class=xl157984 align=left width=64 style='width:48pt'>ECP Road</td> <td class=xl157984 align=left width=68 style='width:51pt'>WC Home</td> <td class=xl157984 align=left width=62 style='width:47pt'>WC Road</td> <td class=xl157984 align=left width=62 style='width:47pt'>EC Home</td> <td class=xl157984 align=left width=56 style='width:42pt'>EC Road</td> </tr> <tr height=20 style='height:15.0pt'> <td height=20 class=xl157984 align=left style='height:15.0pt'>Phoenix</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>35</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>18</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>17</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>6</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>23</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>10</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>14</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>9</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>8</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>6</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>5</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>4</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>8</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>12</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>10</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>5</td> </tr> <tr height=20 style='height:15.0pt'> <td height=20 class=xl157984 align=left style='height:15.0pt'>San Antonio</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>35</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>15</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>20</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>6</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>21</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>13</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>12</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>9</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>5</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>7</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>3</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>6</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>10</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>12</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>5</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>8</td> </tr> <tr height=20 style='height:15.0pt'> <td height=20 class=xl157984 align=left style='height:15.0pt'>Portland</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>35</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>17</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>18</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>6</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>22</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>12</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>12</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>10</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>7</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>5</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>3</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>7</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>13</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>10</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>4</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>8</td> </tr> <tr height=20 style='height:15.0pt'> <td height=20 class=xl157984 align=left style='height:15.0pt'>Golden State</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>34</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>19</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>15</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>4</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>22</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>11</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>11</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>11</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>5</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>6</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>6</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>5</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>9</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>9</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>10</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>6</td> </tr> <tr height=20 style='height:15.0pt'> <td height=20 class=xl157984 align=left style='height:15.0pt'>Houston</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>33</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>14</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>19</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>4</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>18</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>9</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>9</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>9</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>5</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>4</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>4</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>5</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>9</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>11</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>5</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>8</td> </tr> <tr height=20 style='height:15.0pt'> <td height=20 class=xl157984 align=left style='height:15.0pt'>Los Angeles Clippers</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>32</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>18</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>14</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>4</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>18</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>7</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>14</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>4</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>7</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>7</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>4</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>0</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>11</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>14</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>7</td> <td class=xl157984 align=right>0</td> </tr></table> Some takeways: LAC and Houston face the fewest remaining playoff teams though the Clippers only play 7 of those games on the road, but all 7 of their games are against Western conference playoff teams whereas the Rockets only have 4 more remaining road games against western playoff teams. Interesting also the Clippers have no more road against the East. Despite having a heavier road schedule the Rockets do have a favorable remaining schedule for the rest of the season. Only 4 back to backs and they play 15 games against non playoff teams which is the most out of these 6 teams. The Rockets will have to make sure they take advantage and win the majority of these games. Phoenix has to play the most number of games against playoff teams -23 and 14 of those are against western conference teams. They have been remarkable this season so far but they may drop a little as they head into this stretch - 6 of their last 8 games are against western conf playoff teams. Golden State has a good home heavy schedule despite the remaining 22 games against playoff teams - but its an even split between the conferences so I would expect them to move up as phoenix moves down. Portland plays more on the road like the Rockets but they have more games against eastern conf playoff teams compared to Houston. They also play more back to backs and more games against the western playoff teams. They have been playing at a high level all season but I expect them to fall into the 4-6th battle. San Antonio is going to go on the rodeo trip soon - with the injuries to Manu and Kawhi it will be interesting to see how they end up - if the Rockets focus they maybe to take over the division since Pop does not care about winning regular season games if the Spurs are a lock for the playoffs. But the spurs have a lot of road games against playoff teams so this could be the year where maybe they don't have home court in the first round. Clippers have a deceptive home heavy schedule - they play 14 western playoff teams (tied for most) and play 7 of those games on the road (again tied for most) - they have to play the most number of road games against western teams. But with the return of Paul I think the Clippers will able to make a push to the third spot possibly even the second spot. Something also interesting about the teams so far: (the games below are defined as games where margin of victory/defeat was 3 points or less -- 1 possession) Por: 6-4 in close games 3-0 in OT Clips 3-1 in close games 2-1 in OT Rox: 3-3 in close games 1-1 in OT GS: 7-5 in close games 1-2 in OT SA: 6-0 in close games 1-0 in OT PHX: 2-7 in close games 0-2 in OT Its no surprise that a well coached veteran team like the Spurs are 6-0 in close games. Phoenix shows their inexperience and possibly lack of talent with their 2-7 record in close games. The Rockets are 3-3 -- they do need to improve on that record as the season comes to a close - but even better as Daryl Morey says "great teams dont play in close games" The Clippers only being in 4 close games is a good sign Golden State and Portland have been in the most close games this season and have come out on top the majority of the time - will those scales tip back close to .500? Personally I can only hope so as it would help the Rockets. based on crash5179's thread the Rockets' current winning percentage against playoff and non-playoff teams would mean the Rockets having roughly a 21-12 and a end record of 53-29 which is around what most people expected. If the Rockets can get healthy and stay healthy I am hoping that they go at least 23-10 for the rest of the season and end up 55-27 which would tie the third best record in franchise history.
Good breakdown. I see Portland/Spurs falling and Houston/Clippers rising. Outside chance at the #2 slot...good shot at #3 and #4. Avoid Memphis and GSW like the plague in the 1st round, if possible.
Internet high give for this great post. Lookss like its going to be a dog fight until the very end. The Wild Wild West at its best. I am hoping we will go 23-10 the rest of the way also but will it be enough to land the #2 or 3 spot. Teams start making their move after the all star break. Going to interesting to see who will rise and and will fall.
it is kind of weird how we did so well in B2B games. Also, we are about .500 against playoffs teams. While it is good that we don't have to play playoffs teams as much as other teams, it also is worrisome in our playoffs success this year.
Completely agree with your assessment. I see 4 teams trending up: MEM, GSW, LAC, and HOU; with three trending down: POR, PHX, and SAS (and I don't say San Antonio with an ounce of conviction despite their injury woes). Such being the case, the 2-7 seeds out west could be a crapshoot. The Rockets cannot stand more losses to the likes of Sacramento. As is, those prior losses are enough to knock us into an unfavorable matchup (and/or loss of homecourt). Should be fun.
Is it wrong that I don't care about the Rockets winning the division that much? I just hope they can stay healthy...
The mistakes this team makes are chemistry related. I expect them to start getting it together after the all-star break.
Can't wait for post-all star break basketball. All the good teams are going to kick it into another gear, it's always exciting. Rockets need to come to play on that road trip, definitely the most crucial stretch of the schedule.
We gotta aim for that #3 seed. The only teams above us would likely be the two who have kicked our ass so far this year--OKC and LAC.
Nice research and breakdown. I think the Rockets can get that #2 seed. Were 3.5 games back with 35 games left. We need some winning streaks, nice, long, winning streaks; and our best winning streak leading into the playoffs. Looking forward to the stretch run.
What worries me is our 18-14 conference record and the road heaviness of our remaining schedule where we are only 12-10.
Thanks for the update Yoyo. This should prolly be on the front page of the website. It puts a lot of things into perspective going forward and after the all-star break.
yea man, great thread. february will be very telling (not to jinx us) as the clips have a pretty tough schedule and the blazers have a fairly tough schedule. if the rockets take care of business its fair to believe we'll be in the mix for the 3 spot come march...lets see what happens, i'm excited to see this team at the tc come playoff time. GO ROX!
