There is still obviously a ton of summer left during the offseason, and Daryl Morey has ample time left to bust out some of his mad analytical skills. However, Yao’s injury, TMac’s absence, and the bolting of Ron Artest to the Lakers has clearly changed the outlook for this upcoming season. The Championship window is pretty securely closed, and it remains to be seen how we will retool to compete for a ring. Is Yao a part of the plans? Are we going for a major splash in 2010 free agency? Are we going to land Rubio? I don’t know the answers to those questions, and I’m not sure Morey or Alexander do either What I do know is that the Houston Rockets will make the playoffs next season. There will be no tanking. If we miss out on a playoff spot, we will likely wind up with the 13th or 14th pick. This will team will go balls out and wrest one on those spots in the West. There is still a lot to like on this team despite some huge glaring holes. I think in many ways this team is a better fit for Rick. It always seemed he was trying to force a low post presence into his motion offense. The results were mixed, but most of the time they were pretty ugly as teammates (I’m pointing at you Ron) stood around or ballhogged (I’m looking at you Ron and Von). We should see a lot more pick and rolls and screens, and hopefully the results will be a lot more palatable to watch. How will the defense fare? Ron is a great defender, but he had clearly slipped a great deal. While it was awesome to throw out a Artest\Battier combo against athletic teams, I don’t think the falloff will be as severe as some think. We still have the brains of the operation in one Shane Battier. Yao’s size will be missed in the middle, and teams will likely get more penetration to the basket. However, we’re not going to become a complete sieve, and the team defense will likely stay a point of focus for the coaching staff. Morey’s crew will also continue to work their thorough game preparation analysis. I think it’s safe to say we have one of the very best team scouting programs in the league. Some nights the Rockets came out flat, but it’s not as if they weren’t fully aware of what their opposition was going to do. That kind of advantage fades in a playoff series, but when you’re grinding out games in January, those little edges add up. The team MVP is still healthy and ready to weave his crafty magic for the Rockets. Luis Scola has improved his game and showed he could play well in Yao’s absence last year. I was concerned that he couldn’t be the man on this team, but I think he’s ready to be a main focal point on offense. Sure, he will get outplayed by some of the superstars, and he will have off nights. However, the Agentenian has developed a pretty consistent game. He moves well without the ball, and he can pass. Shane is still around and provides a great defensive wing. Granted he’s a cerebral player, but he will keep this team grounded in their defensive gameplan. I fully trust Adleman with an assist from Morey to develop a defensive strategy and trust Shane to lead the team in executing it. Hopefully, he’ll hit that corner 3 more consistently this year. He won’t be coming off ankle surgery, so I’m optimistic on that front. I’m big on the Lowry\Brooks combo. They’re both young and prone to young player mistakes, but they both have aggressive, slashing instincts that will help this team. I think with experience, these two will just get better as they grow into their roles. We also still have the Landry and Scola duo, who can provide sparks off the bench. Granted Chuck is limited offensively, and Landry is inconsistent. Rick, however, does some have situational options with his bench. I also like what Morey is doing with the rest of our team. He’s clearly going in a Portland mode of stocking rangy, athletic big men. For a team that’s going to have to hustle, rebound, and outwork other teams, that’s the right way to go. Clearly, there are huge deficiencies with our team. There will some nights where a lack of a superstar will kill us. We will need a much larger collective effort to win, and multiple players having off nights will make victory so much more difficult to achieve. However, this team for the past 2 seasons has shown an ability to step up and play at a high level even when they are overmatched. The defining characteristic of this team is being greater than the sum of its parts. From the 22 game streak to last year without Tmac to the playoffs without Yao, the Rockets have a tenacity that might not be topped in the entire league. There is enough carryover to hopefully continue this trend. Do I expect them to win 22 (or even 12) in a row? No. Do I expect 55+ wins? No. Do I expect them in the Playoffs? Definitely. The top 4 teams are a lock for a playoff berth. The Lakers, Spurs, Nuggets, and Blazers will make the dance and will likely hold the top 4 seeds and home court. The bottom 6 teams are also a lock in my mind. The Kings, Clippers, Grizz, Wolves, Warriors, and Thieves all seem like they will finish around the same mark as last year. Some could have modest improvement (Thieves and Warriors particularly), but that won’t be enough to make a run. That means we’ll see our Rockets fight it out with the Mavs, Suns, Jazz, and Hornets for the last 4 spots. I personally think the Mavs will make it. I’m not a huge fan of the Kidd resigning and Gortat splurge. Still I think the Mavs will grind out enough victories behind Dirk and Terry to grab the #5 seed. The other teams have issues. The Jazz were a wreck last year and only clung to the #8 spot because the Suns sucked more. I don’t expect the road woes to magically improve. If they lose Milsap, their chances take a humungous hit. If they have injury problems, that could sink their chances. This seems like a team in decline since their run to the WCF, and I don’t think that trend reverses. Phoenix didn’t make the playoffs last year, and I like their team even less this year. Grant Hill and Shaq are gone. Amare is coming off his eye injury and wants to be traded. Nash has to be thinking that he’s opting out after this season, and the owner wants to trade\cut whatever he can to avoid paying the luxury tax. I don’t know what the hell this team is, and I don’t think they do either. The went from D’Antoni’s run and gun team to Porter’s defensive team back to Gentry’s run and gun team. However, they just don’t have the personnel to run that, and their playoff runs seem an eternity ago. The Hornets are another team that looked brutal towards the end of last season. They had that brief resurgence after Chandler’s trade got rescinded, but then they cratered and got massacred in the Playoffs. Shinn is still looking to cut payroll, and I think Chandler gets moved sometime before the All-Star Break. If West or Paul are banged up, their season could crater rapidly. Even if those two stay healthy, this team is far removed from the one that was 1 game from the WCF just two seasons ago. I definitely like the Rockets’ chances to eek out the Suns, Hornets, or Jazz for the last spot in the Playoffs. Even more, I like them to edge out all 3 to grab the #6 spot. Maybe they draw the Nuggets or Blazers in the first round. I’d take our chances with those matchups. It’s a downshifting of the championship aspirations of the past few years, but the season will not be a complete washout as we retool. I believe!
My friend, I take your word for gold here. If you say it's so, it's almost as if Morey stated it. Plus 12 Rep points.
...uh, much as I love optimists, I don't get the whole craze about getting a #6/#7/#8 seed, that would possibly be the worst scenario imaginable. First round loss and a low pick. eh. You never want to hope to lose, but I don't understand why people are actively yearning for a low seed in the playoffs+rushing Yao back to help, that's just bleh.
I'd rather be in the playoffs with the #19 pick than out of the playoffs with the #16 pick. There will be no Yao next year, and they certainly wouldn't rush him back to compete in a playoff bracket tilted almost impossibly against us. If he needs a year off, he needs to take a year off. However, the young kids on this team need that playoff experience, and a full year of having to play above their heads in a system to grind out wins will benefit this team in the long run. I think everyone on this board is hoping for a major run in 2011, and I don't think you can ramp up as easily if the main core of your team is playing for the lottery. I'm fully behind the need to rebuild this team and feel I have realistic expectations. Getting to the second round will be a damn miracle, but this team will compete, win a bunch of games, and make the playoffs next year.
<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Qwq7BYOnDrM&hl=en&fs=1&color1=0x5d1719&color2=0xcd311b"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Qwq7BYOnDrM&hl=en&fs=1&color1=0x5d1719&color2=0xcd311b" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object> Seriously. Playoffs? I just hope they can win a freakin' game.
We would make playoffs if we can get a good backup center (one like Pachulia) to start. Right now everything is up to air, but I still believe Morey will make more moves to improve the team.
I'd rather be competitive every night with something to cheer for this season and a bright future with the chance of landing a good free agent and the return of Yao in 2010, then a crappy tanking of a season. Even if the Rockets tanked this season, which I can't see happening, there's not a big chance that they'd beat out LAC, MEM, WAS, or NYC at the lotto ball bonanza. The game is still a team game. AB will have another year so will Lowry. Scola just keeps getting better. Adding a young hungry Ariza to the mix with the intangible Battier and you've got a pretty good entertaining team. We'll see how Dorsey pans out as this is his last chance and hopefully he rises to the occasion. As for championship aspirations, its on life support but its not dead. Tmac could come back ready to go, and we'll see if we still have him after February.
the NBA is largely a game of stars. with few exceptions, teams with the best players win. we don't have anyone that counts among the best players. have to find the next guy to hitch our wagon to.
A low teens draft pick isn't going to suddenly turn the organization around in the 2010 off-season. I'd rather make the playoffs this season. Our main impact in the 2010 off-season will be in the free agent market once we finally rid outselves of McGrady.
Strategically, I want a scrappy lottery team. I want the young guys to get a lot of minutes. I want the Rockets to flip McGrady and Battier for young talent. I think this will be a fun team to watch, but there will be some firepower issues. If Brooks takes the next step and Scola emerges as a consistent low post threat, they may surprise, but I don't see how they make up for not having the would be big three.
The question is, do we want to make playoffs and potentially lose out on lottery picks? I for one would love to see us win but I also know it might be detrimental to long-term development and our ability to compete in the free agency in 2010.
I dont like to say this but in reality it's more than stupid to make a prediction without even knowing your final roster.
I agree that Houston will be better than the average "star less" team but I still don't think we make the playoffs and further - do we really want to especially given Morey's recent track record with finding value in the draft? Here is my thinking for the top of the West(in no particular order): Lakers, Blazers, Nuggets, San Antonio. Pretty much exactly as you had mentioned. Dallas makes it as a lower seed, Utah probably makes it as a lower seed(last season's injuries where a bit of an anomaly for this team). That's 6 right there. For the last two slots, I think New Orleans makes it as long as West/Chandler stay relatively healthy(ie. miss less than 30 games combined which isn't too much to ask). Paul is too good to allow that team to miss the playoffs unless he has literally no bigs left on the roster. That leaves one more slot and I think it's Houston competing with the Clippers, Thunder, Golden State/Suns(basically whoever has Amare), and the Griz. I know the conventional wisdom is that the Clip, Griz, and Thunder are perpetual lottery teams, but you gotta figure one of these seasons all that talent is going to turn into something. The Clip managed to get rid of all cancer team player Randolph and add an all rookie talent. Even though they have an awful coach, they are still good enough to make the playoffs on talent alone. Baron Davis, Eric Gordon, Al Thornton, Kaman/Griffin, and Camby are a good roster - especially if Gordon and Thornton have been working on their game in the offseason and got a little better. Unless injuries blow them out of contention early, this team will make the playoffs. As long as they are close enough to making the playoffs, Baron will stay motivated enough to carry this team. The Thunder have been stockpiling talent and if Durant has worked on his game in the offseason(you know he has), he should be good enough to carry this team this year. They looked awful early on last year, but towards the end of the season they really started to "click" and they managed to pick up a few key contributors over the season last year. Kristic, Green, Durant, Sefelosha, and Westbrook are a solid team and they have some decent pieces off the bench too. They are bound to make that jump at some point and considering how the West has become considerably more top heavy in the last few years, I think now is as good a time as any to consider them a potential playoff team. Golden State/Suns - basically whomever has Amare has an outside chance of making the playoffs. Neither teams are built to a win a championship but run and gun teams normally win more than you think they should in the regular season. If Amare ends up on the Warriors, I think they are a better team than if he stays with the Suns but either is set up to win 10 more games than they should just because of how they play in the regular season. The Griz are the last team I would think would challenge and I think the Rockets will be better than them, but it goes without saying that on paper Conley, Mayo, Gay, Randolph, and Gasol looks to be a pretty solid team. My problem with Memphis is they don't appear to have a leader anywhere in that organization from their players on up to their coaches and management. When you add a guy like Randolph, that especially threatens those types of teams so I'm not sure they are a better team with Randolph but it goes without saying that OJ Mayo looked like a stud last year and after another year of improvement he could turn into a legit star. I still think it's a little too early for them to turn the corner but it could happen. ...so of those teams, I still think the Rockets could contend for a playoff spot, but at this point I'm not sure what good it would do them. I guess it depends on Morey's draft board as to whether a mid-late lotto pick is worth anything of any real value compared to a late first rounder. My gut tells me even if Morey doesn't see the value in picking with a mid-late lotto pick, he probably sees the value is trading that to someone who does value that pick in what is perceived as a "stronger" draft. Back to point though, I like Houston's team but I still think they are probably on the outside looking in. As good as Houston sometimes played without Yao against the Lakers, I don't see that as being the "norm" next year across an 82 game season. I see Houston as around a .500 team next year where it took 48 wins to make the playoff last season. Of course all of this means nothing if Morey manages to trade for someone of value before the trade deadline using Tmac or Battier's contract.
This team is not going to be a 25 win team. We will likely float around the .500 mark all season. That's not good enough to get you one of the top picks in the draft. That'll get you something in the 10-14 range. I'd rather make the playoffs and drop 6 or 7 places in the draft. Morey has shown enough aptitude to capitalize at that range. As far free agents in 2010. Money matters, but do you expect any of the top dogs to want to come to a cellar dweller? If we win 22 games, Wade or LeBron are not coming to this team. The most precious commodity this team has right now is the scrappy, band of brothers, grind out a win mentality. If you give that up, it's awfully hard to regain it. Competing hard this next season is the only option.
Scribo, As always, I love your attitude and analysis. However, I have two responses (not necessarily new to you): 1. As much as I love the guy, you overestimate Scola. He is an excellent NBA complementary player. But as others have said, especially in other threads, he is not a go-to post scorer most nights in the NBA. 2. This combines with the lack of interior presence. I would say you underestimate the lack of Yao and Dikembe inside. Given these, our playoff hopes depend entirely on either a surprisingly successful T-Mac trade (not likely), or a successful appeal for the injury exception to the NBA offices, resulting in a solid post player for 09/10 season.
As currently composed, coached by Rick Adelman, there is very little chance that this team wins less than 40 games, IMHO. As a proponent of the 'lottery rebuilding' blueprint, the above fact troubles me and is why I have advocated trading Battier and Scola to ensure against this. Others have articulated the case for why this team would be better off making the playoffs. I don't agree with this opinion, but I think we can all agree that if remaining as currently composed, they will be right in the mix.
Going to have to disagree there. Chandler is likely to get traded, and who knows who else might be as well. The owners over in New Orleans are in salary dump mode, so AT BEST we'll see last year's New Orleans team which was a huge disappointment and definitely on a down swing towards the end of the year. At worst (and more likely than the best case scenario for New Orleans), we'll see Chris Paul plus nobodies. He's not good enough to get to that playoffs THAT solo. Paul + West + No one is still probably worse than the Rockets sans Yao/McGrady.
Also, folks, keep in mind we might just have a healthy Tracy McGrady towards the end of the season. Hopeful, but possible.
If this team has any chance of winning a Championship within the next five years, it almost certainly begins with a trip to the 2010 NBA lottery.
Wade or Lebron would be smart enough to know a 25 win team that's rebuilding and a 25 win team that's not going anywhere. And all that first round playoff experience didnt help the team before. Of course it's a different group, but the Hawks and Pistons didn't really milk their rounds for all the experience they could get. And the Morey argument is two sided. Yes he could optimize whatever pick in the early 20s, but if he had the freedom to swing a top 15 pick?
