There aren't enough games for the Grizzlies to get the 5th spot over the Blazers (4.5 games up) or the Warriors (3 games up), especially with the Blazers super easy schedule. Grizzlies are fighting for the 7th seed.
In spite of their defensive proficiency against other teams, subjectively their fans think that we are their worst matchup. They fear us more than the Clippers and Thunder. Just check their fan sites.
I think the playoff seeding will come out eventually just as it stands now. Following are my reasoning and analysis, that include both the analytics by playoffstatus.com and the unquantifiable motivational factors as I see them. The overall picture is that all top eight teams would want to or have to stay where they are as it stands now. Many crucial games will happen in the last ten days of the regular season so last-day turn-around is possible. But I would say 80% the final seeding would end up like the following: #1 Spurs: Home court advantage all the way. Would rather face Thunder or Clippers in the final. 68% chance to stay at #1 seed and 30% to slip to #2 within the current WC dynamics. #2 Thunder: They have a tougher schedule (one more top-7 championship contender and one more B2B game) than the Spurs to advance to the #1, even if they want to for whatever reasons. 55% to remain at #2 and 31% to get to #1. Also Westbrook is still on limited minutes and they don't have balanced scoring as the Spurs. KD had to play 52 minutes and score 51 points last night to pull out an overtime one-point win against Toronto. Advancing to #1 is possible but not probable and realistically may bring more bad than good for OKC down the road. #3 Clippers: Think they can beat any one any way so not much motivation to advance to #2. *84% to remain at #3 and 14% to advance to #2. Would rather rest their core in preparation for the playoffs. They also have one 5-game road stretch in the remaining 13 games. Followed by a 5-game home stretch though. #4 Rockets: Think all stars have aligned perfectly for them now. Every reason to avoid Thunder and Clippers in the first two rounds. 77% chance to remain at #4 and 18% to drop to #5. Less than 1% chance to advance to #3 even the three games against the Spurs, Clippers and Thunder are winnable at home. #5 Blazers: They definitely want to get out of their current slump as it's going to look more like the 10-game tanking last year. But with another round of 5-game road trip starting 3/22, which includes four Eastern playoff teams, it's likely they will lose a few more winnable games. They lost four in their last 5-game road stretch which included four Western playoff teams. *52% chance to remain at #5 and 24% to drop To #6.* #6 Warriors: *51% chance to remain at #6 and 15% to drop to #7. 26% chance to get ahead of the Blazers to get to #5, but they think they have a better chance with the Clippers, as many of their fans think that Rockets are their worst matchup. #7 Mavericks: They have the toughest remaining schedule among the five teams fighting for the last four playoff seats. 49% chance to remain at #7 and 24% to drop #8. 24% chance to get ahead of Warriors.* #8 Grizzlies: They seem to still want to get higher in the standings for pride or whatever, but have more teams motivated to pull them down than any other teams in the playoff race. 45% chance to remain at #8 and 26% to drop out of the playoffs. 21% to advance to #7.* #9 Suns: Seem still determined to fight for their first playoff in years. 63% chance to remain out of playoffs but 24% to overtake the Griz and sneak in.
The same with the Blazers. That's why I said don't underestimate them because it will be a track race. Yes the Warriors will be a dog fight to the very end. Each game has the potential of being some high scoring match ups.
It's not the same with the Blazers. The Blazers lack depth, have middling to poor defense, and have no play off experience. GSW is basically Portland with a bench and defense, which is why Portland is on every play off teams' wish list. That's not to say Portland will be a cake walk. You can never write off a team with Portland's offense. However, get them in the half court and we own them in terms of size and match ups. And per the post above, if I had to prioritize match ups, it would look something like this... Portland > Dallas > GSW > Memphis > Spurs > OKC > Clippers That's not a knock on most of those teams, I just think *some* of those teams are *much* worse match ups for the Rockets than others.
With another injury to Westbrook, do any of you feel differently about prospectively facing OKC in the second round if we get the 3rd seed?
No easy road but, getting the 4th seed. Meeting the Blazers in the first round with home court advantage is probably best. We match up good and they have a weaker defense and are jump shot team,which why we beat them last time we played. They just give up huge leads because they don't really get to line so if shots aren't falling they get in trouble quick. Especially against the Rockets style of play. Meeting the Spurs in second round would be extremely tough, but the Rockets play with extreme confidence against them and are the familiarity would help. Beverleys defense on Tony Parker and the fact that they have no answer for Harden(officially a spur killer) could definitely be the X Factors to tip that series our way. Avoiding OKC and the LAC until the WCF is definitely best for our chances of getting to the finals. NBA is all about match ups and getting fourth seed gives us the best match ups on the road to the championship.
62% chance we get the 4th seed Most likely 1st round opponent: POR Most likely 2nd round opponent: SAS http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NBA/Western.html
Nice work people! I did not even have to do any research to feel that I was totally up to speed on this topic. Thanks.
No, we got blown out @ OKC, earlier this year, even when Westbrook was out of the lineup. Their backup PG's are Reggie Jackson and Derek Fisher (Both have given us problems). We still don't have an answer for Durant, and Dwight can't seem to score on Perkins and Ibaka, as we don't have any reliable stretch 4 to pull Ibaka out of the paint.
The bottom four in the West are fully capable of taking out any of the top four in a seven game series. I would be most wary of Memphis and Dallas. The Grizzlies' defense is made for the playoffs and the Mavs can shoot people out of a game when they get hot. This year's playoffs are going to be ridiculous, maybe the best ever. I honestly don't think there is a consensus favorite. Maybe the Thunder, but what about the Clippers, and don't forget the Spurs and might as well throw in the other five.
The Rockets seem to be peaking at the right time, but so do MEM, SAS, the Clips and lord who knows who else. It is going to be a dog fight for sure.
Of course after Marc Gasol gets injured which causes them to lose to Miami, yes they were going to beat them.
I hear what you are saying Big T. Personally I believe we will beat the Blazers, Warriors, and Mavericks 4-2. Memphis will push us to seven but we will come out on top 4-3
I'd rather stay at #4 and host Portland in the 1st round and go to San Antonio for the second round than go up to 3 and have to play GS and then OKC.
I am in the minority, but I believe that the Rockets roll over Memphis. They are playing great right now and the addition of C. Lee has certainly helped. But with Asik returning and the emergence of D-Mo (isn't he playing great on both sides of the ball? I am so proud.) Memphis will not be able to overpower the Rockets down low. And if Memphis cannot do that they are not going to win very many games against the Rockets.
Sth about D-Mo, in the play-offs the referees will bite when he flops? Now he takes the charges but yesterday for example when cavs tried to turn the game and tried to take the charge, they didn't care to give it in the end. Nonetheless, he is playing a lot better, that is what i was hoping to see from him this year.
Yes Dmo is playing some excellent ball. My thing with Memphis is they know how to get you to play their brand of ball. They are going to slow the game down and make it a physical grudge match. Now if we set the tone and play our brand of ball. Yes sir we will beat them easily.
I watch GSW religiously. When they lock in defensively, they can be a problem on that end. Not sure why GSW and the Rockets continue to suffer from the "they play no defense" myth at this point in the season.
The reason being, both teams don't play the same type of defense against the elite teams. Yes both are statistically great ,especially against average and bad teams. Like you said when they are locked in they can pose some problems. But against us , we put up around 106 points a game. The lowest we have scored against them was 99 points. Even dating back to last season, 140,116,94 and 78 is what we scored against them.
