Denver can get in under this scenario: OKC going 1-2, DEN 2-1, and Min going 1-1 results in a 3-way tie, and OKC gets bumped. Pls confirm the below It's actually slightly easier than that. Don't forget that in a 3-way tie between OKC, MIN and DEN ... OKC gets bumped out. The general musts are obviously: DEN and MIN cannot lose more games than OKC, but OKC loses all Ties! Notes on how MIN and DEN can knock OKC out OKC must lose two games...and their last one should be an easy win MIN beating MEM next game allows them to lose to DEN If #2 happens (likely), DEN only has to beat two of LAC, POR, MIN...it's not a must which of the two. High unlikely stuff must occur too: If any of UTA, SAS or NOLA lose out, OKC will get in with 36 losses.
Yes, this is correct. Miami is still vying for playoff positioning, so OKC losing to us and then losing @ MIA is definitely a possibility.
I also think it is worth noting that DEN is 2-1 against Portland this year. Jokic gets up for games against his old-teammate, Nurkic. Whether ppl want to say DEN will likely lose that game, Vegas will be predicting home Denver in that one.
I neglected to research Portland because I thought they had it locked up. But I see now that they do have a shot at getting overtaken by the Jazz. Give me a little while and I'll update everything to include Portland.
If #1 happens and DEN wins the next two games, they don't have to win the last game against MIN. The difficulty of beating MIN will depend on whether MIN is fighting or resting by that time. MIN will likely beat MEM. So all hinges on how OKC fairs against us and MIA. If OKC wins one of the next two games, DEN will probably have to win out to stay in.
@OTMax Through Friday (4/6), Updated to Include Portland Records & Remaining Schedules SEED - SAT SUN MON TUE WED 3 POR (48-31) @ SA - @ DEN - vs UTH 4 UTH (46-33) - @ LAL - vs GS @ POR 5NO (45-34) @ GS - @ LAC - vs SA 6SA (45-34) vs POR - vs SAC - @ NO 7OKC (45-34) @ HOU - @ MIA - vs MEM 8MIN (45-35) - - vs MEM - vs DEN -DEN (44-35) @ LAC - vs POR - @ MIN Head-to-Head Records (record applies to the team in the column header) - POR UTH SA OKC NO MIN DEN vs POR --- 2-1 *** 1-1 **** 0-4 2-2 2-2 2-1 vs UTH 1-2 *** --- 1-3 3-1 1-3 2-2 2-2 vs SA 1-1 **** 3-1 --- 2-2 2-1 * 2-1 2-2 vs OKC 4-0 1-3 2-2 --- 2-1 3-1 3-1 vs NO 2-2 3-1 1-2 * 1-2 --- 4-0 2-1 vs MIN 2-2 2-2 2-1 1-3 0-4 --- 1-2 ** vs DEN 1-2 2-2 2-2 1-3 1-2 2-1 ** ---* SA @ NO (Wed) ** DEN @ MIN (Wed) *** UTH @ POR (Wed) **** POR @ SA (Sat) 2 Team Tiebreakers - POR UTH SA OKC NO MIN DEN vs POR --- **** ***** N N --- --- vs UTH **** --- N Y N Y Y vs SA ***** Y --- N * Y ** vs OKC Y N Y --- Y Y Y vs NO Y Y * N --- Y Y vs MIN --- N Y N N --- *** vs DEN --- N ** N N *** ---* SA & NO (winner of game on Wed gains the tiebreaker) ** SA & DEN (Head-to-Head tie, Conference Record tie, so determined by Win % against all WC teams in-or-tied for playoffs) *** DEN & MIN (DEN must beat POR & MIN to gain tiebreaker) **** POR & UTH (Head to Head tie, Division Record undetermined yet) ***** POR & SA (winner of game on Sat gains the tiebreaker)
If OKC goes 2-1 and MIN beats MEM, then in order for Denver to make it, they would have to beat POR and MIN (losing to LAC is ok). So winning the LAC game today is only important to Denver if OKC goes 1-2. The tiebreaker for MIN/DEN goes to Division record, so that's why they would have to specifically beat POR and then MIN so they win the DEN/MIN tiebreaker based upon a better division record.
great post man! i'm wondering what the OKC scenario is on 7th seed.(edited after reading the post above)
Clippers have only one tiebreaker over Nuggets and Thunder have only one tiebreaker over Jazz. Clippers are already out. Jazz have 5 tiebreakers. Thunder have zero chance to be 7th seed. Yes, the chance is Thunder win every remaining game and ALL other teams lose every remaining game.
@today -- add corrections to this, if you see any. Here are DEN's scenarios for getting 8th seed. It's actually quite hard, because they can't win enough to pass 2 teams, and they win tie-breakers in almost all scenarios. I put this together since many ppl think DEN as 8th seed is ideal, and if it happens I can go to the Rox away games in Denver!!! Scenarios where Denver gets 8th seed If DEN goes 3-0 with 35 losses it is impossible for Denver to get 8th seed Here's why MIN will have 36 losses DEN wins all tiebreakers at 35 losses One of SAS or NOLA *must* have 35 losses, due to playing each other If DEN goes 1-2 with 37 losses it is nearly impossible for Denver to make the playoffs MIN at worse can tie, and they win tiebreaker One (but only one) of OKC, SAS or NOLA must go 0-3 (note: SAS and NOLA play each other for a guaranteed win) If DEN goes 2-1 for 36 losses Scenario #1 = Beat POR & MIN it is not likely Denver gets 8th seed DEN guaranteed to get seed above MIN, so must not pass anyone else DEN wins all tiebreakers at 36 losses, so NO ONE else can go 1-2. Scenario #2 = Beat LAC & POR or Beat LAC & MIN this is best probability for Denver to get 8th seed MIN gets tie-breaker over DEN, so as long as MIN doesn't also lose to MEM* One (but only one) of OKC, SAS and NOLA must go 1-2 (DEN wins all tiebreakers at 36 losses with these teams) * If MIN loses to MEM, none of OKC/SAS/NOLA can go 1-2 or worse -------------------------------------- tl/dr Except for one extreme case: Denver must go 2-1, and exactly 2-1, combined with one (and only one) of OKC, SAS or NOLA going 1-2. And those two wins must not be POR/MIN. If those two wins are against POR/MIN, then none of OKC, SAS or NOLA can go 1-2.
Specifically for the 7th seed, there are several key factors: OKC doesn't have ANY tiebreakers, except vs. Utah, who likely won't come into play. So OKC will be last in any tie grouping. Because of this, they have to have two teams (of the contending teams listed in the chart) finish with a worse record. If OKC ends up tied with 36 losses, they are VERY likely to get eliminated or end up in the 8th seed. The three most likely candidates IMO to end up with a worse record are DEN/MIN/NO. We would need exactly two of those 3 to have a worse record than OKC to force OKC into the 7th seed. The picture will be a lot clearer after tonight's games and I'll update the scenarios then.
Yes, everything looked mostly correct to me, except that there are some complicated 3-way ties for 36 losses... Assumptions: 1. 46-36 is the worst record amongst these teams (POR, UTH, NO, SA, OKC, MIN, DEN) 2. MIN beats MEM 3. DEN beats MIN Scenarios: 1. DEN/MIN/OKC tied at 46-36: OKC is eliminated on group record, DEN/MIN group record tied. DEN/MIN 2-team tiebreaker applies for 8th/7th and it goes to division record (DEN gets 7th if they have beaten POR & MIN, 8th otherwise) 2. DEN/MIN/SA tied at 46-36: DEN is eliminated on group head to head records (MIN 4-3, SA 4-3, DEN 4-4) 3. DEN/MIN/NO tied at 46-36: NO is eliminated, DEN in 8th, MIN in 7th (Group Records: MIN 6-2, DEN 4-3, NO 1-6) There are plenty of other scenarios (including 4-team scenarios), but I'll wait to break everything down until later tonight.
My understanding is Thunder NOT make the playoffs if all 5 teams finish with 46-36 Pelicans Spurs Thunder Wolves Nuggets Nuggets have tiebreaker over Thunder and Pelicans But, Highly likely Thunder will be 8th seed. It is time for DanToni to prepare for it.
I covered those, if you read again. And you need to be careful to say only ONE of those can happen, not two Check my 2-1 record scenario #2, and what I emphasized in my tl/dr summary. I just didn’t use the word 3-Team tie, but rather just implied it. My wording covers ALL two, three, four and five team tie scenarios. I think I just needed you to confirm that except for MIN, DEN wins ALL 36 loss ties. I chose this wording because I’m a Logic geeek and saw we don’t need to cover all cases individually. Wording for 2-1 Denver A 2-1 Denver, in the event they don’t pass Min by beating POR and MIN, will be 8th seed only if ONE (not two) of OKC, NOLA and SAS going 1-2 and UTA going 0-3 Then I also addres Den bearing Por and Min in my Scenario #1 wording We can say it this concisely because Den wins ALL ties against anyone who goes 1-2, or an 0-3 UTA
Updated to Include Denver Win on Saturday Records & Remaining Schedules SEED - SAT SUN MON TUE WED 3 POR (48-31) @ SA - @ DEN - vs UTH 4 UTH (46-33) - @ LAL - vs GS @ POR 5NO (45-34) @ GS - @ LAC - vs SA 6SA (45-34) vs POR - vs SAC - @ NO 7OKC (45-34) @ HOU - @ MIA - vs MEM 8MIN (45-35) - - vs MEM - vs DEN -DEN (45-35) W - vs POR - @ MIN Head-to-Head Records (record applies to the team in the column header) - POR UTH SA OKC NO MIN DEN vs POR --- 2-1 *** 1-1 **** 0-4 2-2 2-2 2-1 vs UTH 1-2 *** --- 1-3 3-1 1-3 2-2 2-2 vs SA 1-1 **** 3-1 --- 2-2 2-1 * 2-1 2-2 vs OKC 4-0 1-3 2-2 --- 2-1 3-1 3-1 vs NO 2-2 3-1 1-2 * 1-2 --- 4-0 2-1 vs MIN 2-2 2-2 2-1 1-3 0-4 --- 1-2 ** vs DEN 1-2 2-2 2-2 1-3 1-2 2-1 ** ---* SA @ NO (Wed) ** DEN @ MIN (Wed) *** UTH @ POR (Wed) **** POR @ SA (Sat) 2 Team Tiebreakers - POR UTH SA OKC NO MIN DEN vs POR --- **** ***** N N --- --- vs UTH **** --- N Y N Y Y vs SA ***** Y --- N * Y ** vs OKC Y N Y --- Y Y Y vs NO Y Y * N --- Y Y vs MIN --- N Y N N --- *** vs DEN --- N ** N N *** ---* SA & NO (winner of game on Wed gains the tiebreaker) ** SA & DEN (Head-to-Head tie, Conference Record tie, so determined by Win % against all WC teams in-or-tied for playoffs) *** DEN & MIN (Head to Head tie, Division Record undetermined yet) **** POR & UTH (Head to Head tie, Division Record undetermined yet) ***** POR & SA (winner of game on Sat gains the tiebreaker)
