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Playing undersized at the 5: a look at some numbers

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by durvasa, Oct 2, 2009.

  1. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Using the lineup data over at basketballvalue, I took a look at our efficiency/rebounding with and without the big 7-footers (namely, Yao and Mutombo) over the last 2 seasons with Adelman. Hopefully this can shed some light on how well or poorly we can be expected to defend this year without a legitimate "presence" at the basket.

                             min   OFF_EFF   OREB%    DEF_EFF   DREB%
    with_Yao_or_Mutombo:     5208   107.5    .310      101.1     .722
               with_Yao      4498   108.0    .307      101.1    .725
           with_Mutombo       715   104.4    .332      100.5    .704

    no_Yao_or_Mutombo:       2507   106.4    .299      105.1     .725
             with_Scola      1487   107.9    .309      105.6    .713
            with_Landry      1407   105.6    .308      107.7    .740
             with_Hayes      1330   103.7    .285      100.5    .740
       Scola_and_Landry       650   106.4    .325      110.0    .734
        Scola_and_Hayes       460   105.9    .295       95.1    .721
       Landry_and_Hayes       631   102.9    .291      106.2    .750


    The last two columns are especially of interest. A quick glossary for those not familiar with these statistics.

    OFF_EFF: points team scored per possession (x100)
    OFF_REB%: percentage of rebounds we recovered on offensive end
    DEF_EFF: points team allowed per possession (x100)
    DEF_REB%: percentage of rebounds we recovered on defensive end

    There are a few surprises, and some non-surprises. Defensive rebounding, as a team, did not seem to suffer against the league as whole over the last 2 seasons when we went small. This could mean that all 5 players were more committed to rebounding. Not sure on that.

    The Scola+Landry combination was pretty horrible defensively in general, though more effective offensively than when Hayes was on the floor. This may give the Rockets some pause in starting those two.

    Hayes looks to be a real difference make on defense, particularly in combination with Scola. But would that be sustainable against starter-quality competition?

    Anyway, just some numbers to chew on as we head into the season. If I find anything else (stats-oriented) that might be of interest on this topic, I'll post it here. I hope others can as well.
     
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  2. DaDakota

    DaDakota If you want to know, just ask!

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    Good thread Durv,

    But how do we know who the Rockets were playing against, ie...maybe that team went small too?

    Is there a way to show the Rockets going small against another team going big?

    That would be more telling and more valuable data, IMO.

    DD
     
  3. Bob Sacamano

    Bob Sacamano Member

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    Maybe it's because we tended to go small only when our opponents went small.
     
  4. eliefan

    eliefan Member

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    I'm liking our results with Scola and Hayes.
     
  5. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    That's a very good point. Can't just ignore the quality of competition. It's possible to show it (basketballvalue shows breakdowns with opponents faced as well), but it would take considerably more effort. Time permitting, I'll see what I can find and post it here.
     
  6. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Yes, very good point.
     
  7. CheezeyBoy22

    CheezeyBoy22 Contributing Member
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    Our defense was better at times when we were smaller with the exception of Deke.

    I never thought you were really got killed when we went small on rebounding.

    I know at first we struggled last year in the beginning but I think that kinda leveled out in my opinion towards the end of the year.

    I think with Ariza will be a X-factor when it comes to rebounding. I know him and Kyle will fight for rebounds.
     
  8. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    What would be a good heuristic for deciding if the opposing lineup has gone "big"? Would it be sufficient to check if they have at least one player who is 6'11+, 250+ lbs?
     
  9. trugoy

    trugoy Member

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    the problem is that teams never game planned for our small teams before, they just kinda deal with it best they can in game. Like how you can surprise a team by throwing a press on them for a play or two.

    This season every team will be ready to attack our small teams from the tip-off, that is a very different proposition.
     
  10. jopatmc

    jopatmc Contributing Member

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    Good data. This is causing me to see Landry as a trade chip more and more. I've always felt his defense was very weak. His offensive explosion is great. But he just seems like he gets abused on the low block defensively and even out on the perimeter against a faceup long 4. Haven't seen him really defend effectively except for a few minutes in a playoff series his rookie season. I thought he was going to get better but then last year he digressed to the same defensive intensity as his rookie season.

    Hayes is so valuable. I hope we never trade him until he is old and can't do it anymore. He is one of the top 2-3 post defenders in the league. It is just too bad that he can't shoot worth sh.. because if he could, he would be a helluva big time player.
     
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  11. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I knew the numbers on Landry and Scola together were bad, but sheesh. I always figured it was due to their teammates, opponents, and just playing poorly together in those limited minutes. I still think they may be our best combo as I think they will do better together as Landry gets better on defensive end.

    Those numbers are scary.
     
  12. CheezeyBoy22

    CheezeyBoy22 Contributing Member
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    This is Landry's third year. Let's see how he does this year. Gotta give some folks time to develope themselves.
     
  13. pmac

    pmac Contributing Member

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    Nice thread.

    Nothing surprises me here, though. Scola, Hayes, and Landry are really good rebounders. Hayes is a great defender. Scola/Landry are not. The offensive rebounding goes down when Chuck is in because he's less likely to be attempting to score which makes him less likely to be in great position to get a tip-in.

    One thing that doesn't necessarily show up here is that Landry is extremely streaky, probably more than anyone else on our team. Some games he just doesn't have it and it hurts our team and sometimes he gives a huge boost. Scola and Hayes are more consistent but less likely to give us a lift at any interval in a game.
     
  14. CheezeyBoy22

    CheezeyBoy22 Contributing Member
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    That's a good point. He is very streaky.

    Like one of the posters said earlier... He could be very well be traded. He's perfect for a asset in a trade. Don't get me wrong, I would hate to see him get traded but it's business.

    He's a Paul Milsap type player but Paul is a little bigger than Landry.
     
  15. yuantian

    yuantian Contributing Member

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    well, these numbers only show what happened last year. without Yao, they were just playing bench players. this year, they are against starters. so i don't think these numbers mean too much. but good summary though. there are just too many variables not accounted.
     
  16. Dave_78

    Dave_78 Member

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    The problem was I did not see much growth from Landry last year. His jump shot improved for sure but defensively he can't guard most of the starting PF in the league. He also has trouble finishing around the basket against big lineups.

    He's practically reached his ceiling IMO.
     
  17. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Last two years.
     
  18. Alvin Choo

    Alvin Choo Member

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    I'm just curious, how many teams have 7ft centers as their starters? All I can think of is the Cavs(shaq), Bulls(Miller), Lakers(Gasol/Bynum), Blazers(Oden/Priz), Jazz(Okur) and Kings(Hawes).
     
  19. Hayesfan

    Hayesfan Contributing Member

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    Great thread durvasa.

    I think most of us knew that the Landry/Scola combo performed poorly defensively. I know I was shouting at the tv with those two on the floor together. The reason Chuck is good is because of positioning. He rotates defensively a lot faster than the other two and he is a better post up defender.

    I am actually surprised that there isn't a larger difference from when Deke was on the floor to when any of the three pf's were manning the 4-5.

    Additional information about competition would be nice, but honestly, how many teams are there that have at least one 7' player on the floor at all times?

    Is this something we can find easily?
     
  20. meh

    meh Contributing Member

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    As others have pointed out, this data needs to be taken with a HUGE grain of salt. When Yao/Mutumbo was available, Adelman and JVG had a choice of when they go small. Not forced into it like they are now.

    I mean, the site showed that Lowry and Brooks make a fine backcourt combo in terms of defensive rating. But I think it's pretty clear no coach who wants his job would start them together.
     

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