Just the other day I was playing Texas Hold 'Em with a group of buddies (as "buddy" as one can get with a collection of guys and girls whose pockets you want to empty out, that is). I was having a mediocre night...definitely niot chip leader but not in Washington-Wizard shortstack-tilt-mode either. I'm familiar with all the players, their tells and tendencies and (with some) their need to hurry up and head home so they could kiss the wife and not end up on the cold leather couch for the night. Suddenly, it happened. Two cards in and I have the "bullets". Best hand possible. A hand most want to hold on to and milk every franchise, make that "player" onboard. It was the McGrady hand. Pocket Rockets Our favorite Houston hoop squad was dealt the same hand to start this season. We had a $23,000,000 expiring contract to play with in a climate of economic strife. The NBA is reporting estimated losses of $400,000,000 this year and you better believe teams, though always optimistic when their records are 0-0, knew they may have to fold their season's hand in order to survive. Collectively, we decided to hold on to those Pocket Rockets and go for the big pot. We could have raised the ante, playing McG enough to get him back in game shape and pushed some of the pretenders out of the hand. The limp-in offers of McG for NY trash would've gone by the wayside quickly as they would've seen that this pot was too rich for their blood. Consequently, the players that had the hands to play, i.e. the Big Slick Raptors (prior, mind you, to their eventually realized success. They flopped 2 pair later on. At that point they were playing a good hand, yet may have been able to be convinced into throwing Bosh into the pot) may have decided to play with us for a while. They could've stood to gain an old teammate back that was on his way back to health and not been necessarily committed to him longterm. If they wanted to bring him back, they had the benefit of familiarity with McG, and whereas Bosh was considered all but "out the door" McG would've at least given them some hope of re-signing. And if not? Hey, it's $23,000,000 off the books (It's important to write that amount fully. $23MM doesn't due that amount of savings justice). So we held this hand, then somehow, for inexplicable reasons, dropped the cards for all to see. Banishing McGrady, whether his fault, Morey's fault, Adelman's fault, or San Andrea's fault, relegated McG to only one value - that of an expiring contract. Big savings, yes, but not as big as big savings and a productive player. Perception > Reality So now the league wide growing perception of Houston's finest franchise since Frenchy's Creole (God, I miss their old food) is that of an organization that is at an entirely avoidable war with a franchise superstar. No matter your personal opinion of McDarfur, there is no denying that he is regarded as a star (even if a brown one) throughout the league. Many NBA toddlers patterned their game after, and idolized McGrady. To think they side with the Rox organization is, well, foolish. Why does this matter? Because when/if his contract expires with us and we're left trying to bargain a burdgeoning, young, star player into signing with us for less than he may be able to make elsewhere, on the wings of our potential, hard work, chemistry, and (yes) first class operations, those memories will undoubtedly creep into their heads. $7MM with the Rockets or $9+MM elsewhere? All things being equal, they may (understandably) decide to go for the given cash and not with an organization that hasn't exactly pampered its superstar (or stupidstar, depending on what side of the fence you sit). As an aside, does anyone think Carl Landry will eventually take a hometown "discount" or do we all know he will go to the highest bidder? Young fans may not remember or know, but things weren't always like this in the Bayou City. There was a time players knew we'd take care of them and came here in no small part because of that fact. That's the player side. As for organizations? Well, we have a brash, number crunching, successful and talented GM. He has some connections with a few teams and has been quite astute in his draft picks. He has, in a sense, won 4 or five hands consecutively, in the NBA poker game. Now? He's turned his hold cards over, shown his McAces, and dared anyone to come at it. In fact,he's ok if everyone folds and he will retire those aces and collect his meager winnings. Beware Any organization...ANY ORGANIZATION...dealing with Morey on this deal has to know that their hand is better than his on this deal. There are no surprises to be pulled by Morey. It's as simple as it looks. So if a team is going to play Moreyball, they will do so only if they know they have him beat on the deal. In short, unless everyone folds, Morey will not get max value out of his hand. The Butlers, Jamisons, Iggys, Boshs, Amares, et al aren't going to call that hand. There's better value for their cards and chips than a banished guy who hasn't played over 12 minutes in over 12 months. A borderline playoff team or contender with pieces to move may have been tempted to move in a playing and contract-year-driven-McDiva as a one-year rental..maybe evenso at the cost of a young talent or 2. Heck, we did it for Barkley didn't we??. At this point, we're playing against the Knicks' and Bulls' pocket ducks of longterm crap contracts. Direction I often wonder if we took stock of the table when we were dealt our McAces. We knew...we KNEW...this was a development year. So why not maximize the hand? Why not play McG enough to get him in max tradeable shape? Chemistry's the common answer...and a stupid one at that. How much will chemistry matter when/if Yao comes back and all the fastbreaking, breaknecking, beatnikin we've been doing goes by the wayside next year in favor of a halfcourt attack? Let's not fool ourselves. We aren't going to ask Yao to channel his inner Kareem and become a Laker-rebounding, outlet passing, last resort postup machine. He's always been an average rebounder at best and my living room has more good outlets than Yao does in most games. I love the big fella, but I know (as does he, given his recent quotes) that this style we play isn't his style. So we are inevitably going to have to go through more chemistry tests next season (or whenever Yao returns). Further, why is Sir Beach Nudge, aka C-Bud, not getting more minutes? He's undoubtedly in our future plans yet we won't afford him the latitude we give a guy who has NEVER shown an ability to be a primary scorer. From UCLA to ORL to LaLa Land, Trevor Ariza has proven Dennis Green to be right. He is who we thought he was! So if you want to crown him (with more shots and offensive role) then crown his ass then! But it'll be a mistake. We won't see the fruits of it now as much as we will later, when/if he's asked to play a reduced role. My hand So if you're wondering what happened to my McAces, I'll tell you. I raised the hand high enough to get the McChasers out and deal with the real players only. I let the hand develop and (fortunately) get better with every step before making my move. I wish Morey had done the same. I wish we weren't so brazen and foolish with what we had and played the hand out fully and maximally. Instead? We're left trying to get people to play in a hand that either they know will defeat them, or that they know they can defeat (far from a position of strength). Let's hope there's someone foolish enough to misread all that's on the table. Maybe someone out there hasn't been paying attention. Is Isaiah Thomas at the table still?
This may sound crazy, and this would tell everyone that the Rox are trying to trade Tmac...but he should start the next 2 games. He always play well against Utah..he hates the Jazz! Just show those teams he can be much more than a Expiring. Rockets have handled this Tmac thing all wrong, I think most will agree on that.
Maybe if it was Adelman's decision, he should be held accountable. He couldn't make things work with a primadonna superstar, guess what? They are all primadonna superstars. Lebron doesn't shake hands. Kobe calls out teammates publicly/demands trades. It comes with the territory of being a head coach in the modern NBA. If this Tracy thing doesn't work out, then hopefully Adelman has to pay the piper as well.
I haven't read the original post, but if you are still comparing mcgrady to lebron and kobe, you're missing the point
You know, verse, I give you great credit for your wonderful analysis on how Yao's absence would hurt our defense, and I like the format of the post as a huge poker fan (though ironically I'm not even a remotely Morey-like player, as I am awful with calculating odds, but good at reading others), but there's a couple things which irk me. You assume that Chase is in our future, so you call for increased minutes. Well, what about Ariza? I'm not completely certain Chase is in our future, though I'm 90% sure he is - the possibility does exist that Morey throws him in as a filler for some deal somewhere (remember when we were discussing Butler deals that most people on this board didn't have a huge problem giving Chase to the Wizards if it could get said deals done). Ariza, however, is with certainty part of the Rocket's future, as you don't sign players who aren't going to be your future to five-year deals (unless you're Stromile Swift, whom if I remember correctly spent most of his year with us camping his ass on the bench - and in before LOL ARIZA SHULD DO SO TOO. ) Ariza's a superior player (anyone who thinks otherwise is fooling themselves and in fully "backup quarterback" mode."), especially since he's been somewhat reducing his unfortunate tendencies to chuck, while Chase has really not been the same player since returning from the injury, from my perspective - even the "Chase gets an open jumper at the top of the key after running through 20 screens" play has not been working so well with him lately, and that was by far his most reliable move. Don't get me wrong - if Chase gets more minutes, I will hardly be disapppointed. But he is not just currently not at the level of Ariza, whom can also develop and with certainty has a future with Houston. I guess what I'm saying is that for now, I can accept the status quo with how the Ariza-Chase situation is being handled for the moment and don't view it as a big deal. We need a talent upgrade above all in the end. Because that approach worked so well back then. We took care of Moochie and Cato, all right. Much of the rest of your post is the idea that since we "mistreated" McGrady by not caving into his demands, no player will ever have an interest in playing for Houston. I don't understand this, as of course you are assuming that if we had let McGrady play, he would have made this team better than it currently is and would have shown himself to be a plyer worth pursuing. That is to put it mildly, a major assumption. It's even possible that McGrady would reinjure himself again or that he would start playing not well at all, as his play during the short time we used him was not spectacular, to say the least. If your response is "Yeah, but now McGrady as a player is worth nothing", I don't buy it. On the one hand, you have the Rockets losing out on a potential free agent because we were mean to a "star". On the other hand, you have everyone realizing the "star" has no value as a player. You can't have both, and I have seen Bulls, Knicks, and 76ers fans whom are convinced that McGrady actually has value as player as he rehabs and stuff. All the same, nice post. Not badly thought out. Don't be a rookie. < Good >
I think anyone who takes McGrady is doing so with the expectation he is done. It a salary move, and that's it for the team taking him. It doesn't matter if mcgrady played well or if he didn't, the team that takes him is not playing on signing him. its an irrelevant point. as far as perception around the league, when the rockets are in the running for signing a big time free agent, the money will talk, as it always does.
Excellent post if I could rep I would(if I can please tell me how ahha). If I were to explain the way we are playing it's kind of stupid but here it is: Morey Decides to sit on his pocket rockets instead of initially raising. He decides to play it slow check/calling on each play knowing he has the goods. While other teams start to catch cards. He is left there calling believing he has the cards. At the end he is left there only with his pocket rockets. While other teams catch straights, a full house Morey decides to go all in thinking his hand of 2 pair is unbeatable but is beaten out buy every other hand.
Morey in his eyes can't lose his hand. To him its like he was paid to join the hand (expiring contract that leave a decent amount of cap space next year). He also doesn't have to place any wagers, but he still gets a chance at the pot. I tend to agree with Morey. I would also tell any potential free agents to talk to current Rockets and ask their opinion not on McGrady but how they themselves are treated. I think for the most part it would be a positive response.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe it was Adelman and ONLY Adelman that decided the Rockets and Tracy McGrady were done. Given your logical statement of playing McGrady increasing his trade value, it's easy to say Morey was not a huge fan of Adelman's decision.
I think he will make a trade if it gets us what the team needs, young players for the future,picks or expiring contracts to make other trades with.
Great post. I wonder if due to Yao's recurrent injuries that the direction Morey/Adelman would like to go is to perfect a second playing style (uptempo ie Lowry/Landry) to throw teams off and limit Yao's minutes (~25). Although people are getting jittery and want to see a move made, the beauty of how Morey works is that he won't make a trade just to do it. He has his ideals in place and has a track record of not investing a lot of our salary cap on players who aren't known commodities. He takes limited risks and even though Ariza hasn't been an all-star, we're not paying him all-star money. We're currently just trying to grasp his ceiling and once we do so, we can figure out how best to use his skillsets. Sure, there are other players who haven't worked out perfectly, but we haven't invested in anyone for the long term or with heavy capital. We're looking to build a team based on Adelman's coaching style that will work with or without Yao in the lineup. To all you who are looking at the Igoudala'ss, Amare's, etc. Of course, these are obviously great stars, but Morey doesn't want to play poker with too many people in the hand still. He'd rather find teams who are tanking (on tilt) and see whose available that could help our team. If we can get those stars at the deadline without losing some of our assets then all the better. I know that lately there have been a lot of naysayers, but your post was really well thought out and I hope that Morey is able to pull another Lowry type player onto our team or a known star without losing too much in the process.
Any reason why basketball relates to poker? I thought OP was going to conclude that Les Alexander should have hired the World Poker Champ instead of Morey. Problems with the Poker Analogy 1. It completely disregards the wins and losses/chemistry/development of the team. For example, if we "up the ante" by playing T-Mac more, then we "lower the ante" (impossible; oops, the metaphor is breaking down already!) for some other player who plays fewer minutes. We may also "lower the ante" of wins/losses and team chemistry. These things don't matter in the poker world. Maybe we should have gone "all in" and centered our entire season around giving T-Mac the ball? 2. We couldn't "drop our cards" because we held no secret information to reveal. 3. No GM can "win four or five hands in a row." That would entail defeating all other teams who are considering trades. Trades don't work like that. Each team gets something. Even in the Gasol trade, the Grizz were not 100% losers. Matter of fact, they went into a pretty good rebuilding mode after that. If you want to make a cards analogy, trading baseball cards would work much better: there are no secrets involved, and nobody is 100% winner or loser.
GREAT READ!!!! First.. man do I miss Frenchy's and God Father's there's nothing like that in Dallas... There is a thread about Free Agents coming to Houston and you hit it on the spot.... Although some were bad contracts, they were taken care of and Rudy T. was a player's coach. The organization made it a Family atmosphere. Man you hit this right on the mark.... This is why I keep saying Yao will not fit with this current team... These guys are race horses and they need to run... Once you bring Yao back as the main focus you will have to change your style and pin down your race horses.... So now you lose your young players and you go back to bringing in a lot of old guys closing out there career.
I dont necessarily think we're going to make Yao our main focal point in the offense. However, with his ability to even put up a good 15pts a game opens things up for everyone else. His ability to just clog the paint on the defensive end will make a tremendous difference. I think RA will use him more on the High Post rather than the low post. I htink its the LOW POST that has done the most damage to Yao's feet above anything else. He's a good shooter, let him set high screens and take the 13-17 ft jumpers as needed. But he also has the ability to make something happen in the low post which makes him that much more dangerous.
Like putting a Clydesdale with Thoroughbred and asking them to run together... Want work... Like the OP stated... I don't see Yao being an offensive rebounding machine passing outlet passes to those thoroughbreds... So you will have to go out and get other Clydesdales, if you want Yao to get his touches and stats like the old Yao. T_Man
You mean defensive right? And Yao is a decent to great "within space" defensive rebounder. He struggles with the errant rebounds that don't bounce directly towards his area. But, yes I do slightly agree, when Yao does return, we will have initial chemistry problems. Aaron will likely still have problems throwing the ball into Yao and every Rocket will have to adjust their play styles to fit into a Yao-centric half court offense. And for players such as Ariza, who's been given freedom to chuck and heave, may need some time to adjust to Yao's play style. Also, we need to figure out how to sort out the fronting problem. We all thought Yao's immobility was the pure reason why fronting hurt us so much. While partly true, we had a hard time getting the ball to Carl when he was fronted as well. It's probably more due to the fact that we don't have a perimeter player who can slash to the cup and finish strong to make teams pay for fronting.
