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Player Ratings for Rockets players, 2012/2013 season

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by durvasa, Dec 31, 2012.

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  1. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    I thought I might periodically update this thread with a sample of the player rating metrics that are available online. If there are other metrics that people like and would like to share, please do so.

    I've collected 6 different player metrics, which can be categorized in 3 groups. We can expect stats within the same group to give comparable results. All the ratings are "per minute" or "per possession", for consistency. Multiplying by total minutes played by each player would give you something like a "total value added" type of stat, if that's what you're looking for.

    1. Ratings based on player's statistical production per minute:

    EFF48: NBA.com's "player efficiency" metric.(about)
    PER: John Hollinger's "player efficiency" metric. (about)

    2. Ratings based on share of wins a player can be credited for (per minute):

    WS/48: Justin Kubatko's Win Shares metric (per 48 minutes) (about)
    WP48: Dave Berri's Wins Produced metric (per 48 minutes) (about)

    3. Ratings based on player's adjusted +/- (essentially, net points added relative to average player):

    xRAPM: Jeremias Engelmann's ratings using regularized APM (RAPM) (about)
    IPV: TalkingPractice blog's individual player value metric, based on RAPM (about)

    EFF48                             PER                        
                                      
    Greg Smith           32.83        James Harden         23.2
    James Harden         29.46        Greg Smith           21.4
    Omer Asik            26.35        Chandler Parsons     15.1
    Chandler Parsons     22.37        Omer Asik            14.3 
    Jeremy Lin           22.13        Jeremy Lin           14.3
    Patrick Patterson    20.86        Patrick Patterson    14.3
    Marcus Morris        20.41        Marcus Morris        13.5
    Toney Douglas        17.44        Toney Douglas        12.1
    Carlos Delfino       16.42        Carlos Delfino        9.9

    WS/48                             WP48                      
                                      
    Greg Smith           .247         Greg Smith           .279
    James Harden         .200         James Harden         .213
    Chandler Parsons     .110         Chandler Parsons     .166
    Marcus Morris        .108         Omer Asik            .136
    Omer Asik            .082         Jeremy Lin           .100
    Jeremy Lin           .079         Marcus Morris        .054
    Patrick Patterson    .079         Carlos Delfino       .018
    Toney Douglas        .068         Toney Douglas        .006
    Carlos Delfino       .034         Patrick Patterson   -.023

    xRAPM (updated 12/16)             IPV (updated 12/27)        
                                      
    James Harden         +3.9         James Harden         +4.41
    Omer Asik            +2.4         Omer Asik            +1.40
    Carlos Delfino       +1.5         Jeremy Lin           +0.74
    Jeremy Lin           +1.1         Greg Smith           +0.04
    Greg Smith           -1.0         Chandler Parsons     -0.16
    Chandler Parsons     -1.6         Carlos Delfino       -0.98
    Marcus Morris        -1.8         Marcus Morris        -1.53
    Toney Douglas        -2.2         Patrick Patterson    -1.54
    Patrick Patterson    -3.1         Toney Douglas        -2.39
     
    #1 durvasa, Dec 31, 2012
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2013
    1 person likes this.
  2. Yung-T

    Yung-T Member

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    Royce White leading the league in following #protocol and #humanity.
     
    #2 Yung-T, Dec 31, 2012
    2 people like this.
  3. HadToDoItCF

    HadToDoItCF Member

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    I lol'd. Rep'd
     
    #3 HadToDoItCF, Dec 31, 2012
  4. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    My 2013 resolution

    fockass Jeremy!
     
    #4 heypartner, Dec 31, 2012
  5. RoxD

    RoxD Member

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    It would be great if you can keep the numbers updated for this season. It is both interesting and worthwhile.

    I had tried something similar with only EFF, PER, and EFF48M in <a href="http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=231166">Greg Smith leads the Rockets in EFF48M</a>. In doing so, I found these rating parameters measure only some aspects of a player's performance, not an overall measurement. A more comprehensive measurement is desirable.

    To this end, I tried to find the overall impact of a player on the team by introducing the so called On-Court Impact Factor of a player in terms of the teams' EFF48M with the specific player on/off court, as in <a href="http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?p=7487357#post7487357">James Harden is as good a playmaker as Jeremy Lin</a>. I believe it goes in the right direction.
     
    #5 RoxD, Jan 1, 2013
  6. rogower

    rogower Member

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    Yes, if you could post this once every couple of weeks this season, that would be great.

    The player efficiency ratings (categories #1 and #2) seem to be the least useful of the bunch. The other four rating systems (categories #3-#6) demonstrate why Daryl Morey intends on a) letting Toney Douglas walk at the end of the season (possibly even replacing him in the rotation THIS season with Patrick Beverly, if Beverly pans out), b) dumping Patrick Patterson for whatever they can get for him, hopefully a late second round pick, more likely a second round pick (this would happen either prior to the February trade deadline or this summer), and maybe c) opting to NOT exercise the 2013-14 team option on Carlos Delfino's contract, particularly if the team decides to sign Paul Millsap this summer as an unrestricted free agent, which would obviously allow Marcus Morris to basically fill Delfino's spot in the rotation.
     
    #6 rogower, Jan 1, 2013
  7. mike_lu

    mike_lu Member

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    Wondering what Lin's numbers would look like from the Knicks home game till now. Not LOF nor trying to cherry pick, just wondering what we can perhaps expect from him without the early season struggles (for whatever reason, it's water under the bridge). Just to see his advanced stats in this stretch, and perhaps compare it with his NY stretch.
     
    #7 mike_lu, Jan 1, 2013
  8. IronicMan

    IronicMan Member

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    xRAPM's last update is on 12/16.
     
    #8 IronicMan, Jan 1, 2013
  9. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Thanks. Added that to first post.
     
    #9 durvasa, Jan 1, 2013
  10. talkingpractice

    talkingpractice New Member

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    Someone alerted us to this thread, and this forum seemed great, so we thought we'd join. If anyone is curious, here are the IPVs for all of your Rockets as of Jan 30th:

    James Harden = 4.49
    Omer Asik = 2.18
    Jeremy Lin = 1.12
    Carlos Delfino = 0.52
    Chandler Parsons = -0.49
    Greg Smith = -0.59
    Patrick Beverley = -1.37
    Patrick Patterson = -1.61
    Marcus Morris = -1.80
    Toney Douglas = -2.19
    Donatas Motiejunas = -2.59
    Cole Aldrich = -3.83
     
    #10 talkingpractice, Feb 1, 2013
    1 person likes this.
  11. durvasa

    durvasa Contributing Member

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    Thanks. And here's an update with your your IPV stats, in graphical form:

    [​IMG]
     
    #11 durvasa, Feb 16, 2013
  12. SkyrimOwnsAll

    SkyrimOwnsAll Member

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    why is Greg Smith in the D-League
     
    #12 SkyrimOwnsAll, Feb 16, 2013
  13. Mr. Clutch

    Mr. Clutch Contributing Member

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    The Rockets sent him there
     
    #13 Mr. Clutch, Feb 16, 2013
  14. rogower

    rogower Member

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    Hey, Durvasa, if you would be kind enough to update this info, it would be greatly appreciated, kind sir! To quote the great Sean Connery, "You the man now, dog!"
     
    #14 rogower, Feb 16, 2013
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