[Pelton] What Harden's injury means for NBA, Rockets and MVP race

What impact will James Harden's injury have on the Houston Rockets and the NBA as a whole?

Harden was diagnosed Monday with a Grade 2 strain of his left hamstring, suffered during the fourth quarter of Sunday's double-OT win over the Los Angeles Lakers. He's expected to miss at least two weeks, including Thursday's matchup of the top two teams in the Western Conference, the Rockets and the Golden State Warriors in Houston.

While Houston has survived an extended absence from its other star guard, Chris Paul, playing without Harden will be a different challenge. Since coming to Houston in 2012, Harden has never missed more than three consecutive games, and he had missed just two in the previous three seasons. So what are the implications of his injury? Let's take a look.

Rockets offense will rely on Paul:

The good news for Houston is the team still has a future Hall of Famer to run the offense in Paul, a luxury the team wouldn't have had in the event of a Harden injury in previous seasons. Clearly, the Rockets are at their best with both Harden and Paul, having gone 16-2 with Paul in the lineup. But Houston was 10-7 with an impressive plus-4.8 point differential in the 17 games Paul missed, including 10-4 during his extended absence with a bruised left knee.

While Harden and Paul were still developing chemistry as a backcourt tandem, the Rockets have dominated with Paul on the court and Harden on the bench, typically against opposing second units. They've outscored opponents by an incredible 21.5 points per 100 possessions in those situations, according to NBA.com/Stats, with Paul averaging 27.3 points and 14.1 assists per 36 minutes. (Don't expect him to keep that up.)

Perhaps the biggest difference between a Houston team built around Paul and one with Harden as the lone star point guard is the latter's durability. Harden has averaged 36.9 minutes in games the Rockets have played without Paul, slightly higher than his average with both guards (35.8 MPG). Though his injuries have been a factor, Paul has averaged just 31.4 minutes and played more than 36 in a game only three times -- including Sunday's double-OT game.

That difference is meaningful because, according to NBA.com/Stats, Houston has been just an average team (plus-0.4 points per 100 possessions) in 149 minutes with both Harden and Paul on the bench and Eric Gordon on the court. Harden's absence also will give Gordon more responsibility. He has averaged 31.7 points and 4.8 assists (as well as 5.1 turnovers) per 36 minutes playing without either Harden or Paul.

How much will Harden's absence affect Houston's record?

The schedule will be reasonably favorable for the Rockets over the next two weeks. Three of their next six opponents (the Chicago Bulls, Orlando Magic and Phoenix Suns) rank in the bottom five of ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI), and Houston faces only one top-10 team in BPI. And that one is a doozy, as the Warriors will be trying to avenge losing to the Rockets at home in the season opener.

It's possible Harden could miss both remaining matchups against Golden State, which travels to Houston for a matchup on Jan. 20. That would hurt the Rockets' chances of catching the Warriors for the top seed in the Western Conference. Because of Golden State's superior record, preseason projection and point differential, BPI currently gives Houston just a 14 percent chance of earning the No. 1 seed. Losing the season series would cause that percentage to dwindle.

The Rockets' chances at the top spot in the West already have been hurt by their recent five-game losing streak, three of those games played without Paul. Injuries to starting center Clint Capela (who missed four of the five losses with a heel contusion and an orbital fracture) and reserve Luc Mbah a Moute (who hasn't played since Dec. 15 due to a shoulder dislocation) also have been a factor in Houston's struggles. Capela returned Sunday night, and Mbah a Moute is expected back in early January.

While we've focused mostly on the offensive end so far, uncharacteristically poor defense was perhaps a bigger factor in the Rockets' five-game losing streak. That can be tied largely to opponents making 42 percent of their 3s during the losing streak, far worse than any team has allowed over the course of the season. (Opponents have shot best against the Milwaukee Bucks, 39 percent.) Stouter defense could help Houston survive even if the offense suffers without Harden.

Harden's absence could open up MVP race:

Harden's absence also could affect the MVP race. Harden looked like the early favorite for MVP, having finished atop a straw poll of media members conducted by Tim Bontemps of the Washington Post last month.

If Harden is out only a couple of weeks and the Rockets struggle without him, it's possible that his injury could actually solidify his MVP case. We saw that happen with another Mike D'Antoni point guard, Steve Nash, when the Suns went 2-5 during the seven games he missed in the 2004-05 season.

More likely, however, Harden's MVP chances will suffer -- particularly if he misses an extended period of time. Just one MVP since Bill Walton in 1977-78 has missed more than the seven games Nash missed: Allen Iverson played 71 games in 2000-01.

That's good news for LeBron James, who is trying to win his first MVP since 2012-13 and the fifth of his incredible career. James already leads Harden in my wins above replacement player metric, as well as Basketball-Reference.com's value over replacement player, though Harden held the narrow edge in wins based on ESPN's real plus-minus. If James can stay healthy, he has a chance to become the clear leader in terms of value-based advanced statistics.

Given Harden has twice finished as runner-up for MVP, including last season, it would be disappointing if an injury cost him what looked like his best chance at the award. But that's one of the many possible impacts of Harden's hamstring strain.

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