With the Berkman thread going, I'd thought I'd also get you opinions on what Oswalt should get. He stayed healthy last year and was the only NL pitcher to win 20. The era was up a tad, but he is still one of the most dominating pitchers in MLB. With Randy Johnson in the AL, I think the NL Cy Young will be between Oswalt and Jason Schmidt. He, too, deserves a long term deal. I would sign him for 5 years and $45 million w/ incentives that could push it between $10 & $11 million. Serious discussion only
My initial thought was 4 years 40-50 million... with an option year based on a # of innings pitched during the first four years. 5 years guaranteed is a little dicey for any pitcher, just becuase its very unlikely to have a pitcher pitch more than 4 straight injury-free seasons, no matter what kind of physical shape they're in (and Oswalt is no horse). If they give him anywhere close to $10 million a year (which they can afford for an ace pitcher), he'll take it.
IMO, with the contract that Clement received from the Red Sox, IIRC was about 9 million per season, Oswalt will probally want more around 11-12 million per season.
You are probably right about going 5 guaranteed. 4 and an incentive based option for a 5th should do it. He definietly should get more than Clement and Lowe. It should be base around 10 mil and maybe 12 with incentives.
I would agree Jared, Oswalt should be in that range. The way he has pitched over the last several years warrants a decent contract. Last four years: 4 Yr WL% .700 w/63 l/27 His win/loss is very impressive.
I think everyone is a little skewed (including myself) because last year was actually a DOWN year for him... yet his stats still rivaled all the best pitchers. He was downright AMAZING his first 3 years, minus the groin injury problem. He ran out of gas at the end of last year (I still remember him suffering thru game 4 of the NLCS, which we somehow came back to win), but then again... at least he was still out there (which everyone was worried about, in case the groin surgery didn't stick).
If I'm not wrong, Oswalt has 2 more arbitration years left. So a contract similar to what Vazquez got last year(5yr/45 mil) seems reasonable. It's simply a matter of WHEN the Astros sign the multi-year deal. If Oswalt was on the FA market this offseason, he would've commanded at least Pedro money. So if Oswalt can keep up his performance, and the Astros never sign him long term, that will be a HUGE payday two years from now. I wouldn't be surprised if the Yankees come in with a ridiculous offer for someone of Oswalt's caliber.
I'm not even sure if people in Houston realize how good this guy has been for us. In the past 20 years there hasn't been a pitcher that was so consistently dominant in his first 4 years. This shouldn't be news, but if Roy continues to be anywhere near this good, he'll be the best pitcher the Astros have *ever* developed through their farm system. Vazquez was heading into his last year of arbitration so Oswalt won't get as much. Vazquez got 4/45 by the way. The Twins offered Johan Santana 3 years 27 million and he's at the same stage of arby as Roy. I'd say he gets a 3 year deal worth about 27 million with vesting options for the 4th year and maybe the 5th year based on innings pitched. He will not and should not get what he would get in free agency because he's not far enough along in arbitration yet.
If they sign Oswalt to a 3 year deal, does that mean that he would still have an arbitration year once that contract expires or does the contract trump that?
really?? a guy that injury-prone? a little guy like that?? that kinda scares me...but i hear ya..that may be what it takes. someone else would likely offer it to him if we don't.
And I hear you about the size and injury history. I just know that the Stros will really regret losing him if it comes to pass, moreso than any FA pitcher they've lost in the past. O has some serious talent, and he's going to be in the hall of fame someday if he stays healthy.
Big money Pitcher + Injury + Long contract = Bad situation. It's kinda the Astros organization policy/mentality that they don't sign pitchers to contracts more than 3 years. i'm pretty sure they'll do whatever they can to make Oswalt happy, but i'm certainly sure they'll try to keep the contract length to about 3-4 years. 10-12 mil/yr sounds about right.
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