NFL teams most likely to improve/decline Five teams most likely to decline 2. Houston Texans (9-7) Point differential: -49 Pythagorean expectation: 6.5 wins Record in games decided by seven points or fewer: 8-2 (.800) Strength of schedule: 0.512 (12th-hardest in NFL) One of the way those Colts teams held on to their throne was by dominating a mostly putrid AFC South. Indianapolis was 12-0 vs. the division between 2013 and 2014, and the Texans filled the void once the Colts dropped off. The 2014 and 2015 Texans were genuinely good teams, but the 2016 Texans are about as bad as a division winner can get. Consider that they ranked a lowly 29th in DVOA, safely ensconced between two teams that fired their coaches, the San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams. While Houston was in a relatively easy division, it didn't play a particularly charitable schedule; by my accounting, the Texans faced the 12th-toughest slate in the league. The Texans did beat the Kansas City Chiefs by seven points, and they had another seven-point victory over the Detroit Lions, although the latter team ranked 27th in DVOA. Otherwise, Houston was eking out wins against the AFC South and the likes of the Chicago Bears and Cincinnati Bengals. Meanwhile, its average loss came by 13.3 points, including a 27-point loss to the Patriots with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback on a short week. The Texans were really 8-1 in meaningful one-score games, given that they lost a meaningless Week 17 game to a Matt Cassel-led Titans team -- and even that required a late Brock Osweiler rushing touchdown to make it close. Houston's largest win of the season was over the lowly Bears in the opener by nine points. Meanwhile, it had three losses of 18 points or more. The Texans joined the privileged ranks of those teams that posted a winning record while being outscored over the season. Houston posted the fourth-worst point differential for a team with a winning record since 1989, and things don't often go well for teams in that bracket. The 10 winning teams with the worst point differentials declined by an average of 1.8 wins the following season. Squads that exceeded their Pythagorean expectation by two to three wins -- a group the Texans squeeze right into at 2.5 wins -- declined by an average of three wins the following season. Neither of those numbers bode well for the Texans, nor does one element of the game that often regresses toward the mean from year to year. Houston was terrible on special teams last season, finishing dead last in DVOA while finishing well below league average on everything except punt returns. Normally, teams will make a change in their coaching staff or personnel, and that, combined with some randomness, will push a truly bad special-teams unit toward the middle of the pack. The problem, though, is that the Texans were also last in special-teams DVOA last season, at which point they fired Bob Ligashesky and hired Larry Izzo. They were 28th under Ligashesky in 2014, 29th in 2013 and last in 2012. It's been five seasons since Houston peeked out from the bottom five in the league in special teams. You would think that might inspire personnel changes, but the Texans brought back kicker Nick Novak and punter Shane Lechler on one-year extensions and will return four of their six most frequent special-teams players from a year ago. None of this inspires any confidence that things will be different in 2017. Things will likely be tougher in the AFC South. The Jacksonville Jaguars imported arguably the two best defensive players in free agency with Calais Campbell and A.J. Bouye, the latter of whom was Houston's top cornerback in 2016. Indianapolis hired general manager Chris Ballard and spent the offseason finally making coherent moves for its defense, although Andrew Luck's shoulder is a concern. The Titans profited from robbing the Rams last year by adding two first-round picks to their roster at positions of notable weakness. The Texans weren't able to do much in free agency this offseason, thanks to their spending spree from a year ago and the $9 million in dead money they're eating on Osweiler's contract. The one downside to winning its division is that Houston will be stuck playing the Patriots and Chiefs in 2017, while the rest of their division plays lesser teams from the AFC East and West. That might be enough by itself to swing the South. Comebacks: There are two strong personnel-related arguments for the Texans. One is the return of a Hall of Fame-caliber talent in J.J. Watt, who missed virtually all of the 2016 season with a back injury. Watt matters, of course, but he played at a superstar level in 2013 and a Texans team with many of these same concerns (notably a 5-0 record in one-score games in 2012) fell from 12-4 to 2-14. The Texans defense was also relatively good without Watt last season, finishing seventh in DVOA; even if Watt pushes them into the top five, they would have far more to gain from adding a star on offense. Of course, the other argument revolves around a serious upgrade at quarterback, where Osweiler was deposed after one season. Will the Texans get better play from their passers at 2017? I find it hard to believe Tom Savage is likely to be better than Osweiler over any stretch of time. Remember that the Texans drafted Savage in the fourth round of the 2014 draft and thought so highly of him that they signed Brian Hoyer and gave him and Ryan Mallett the passing reps in 2015, then gave Osweiler a huge deal during the subsequent offseason. After a 73-pass sample in which Savage averaged a pedestrian 6.3 yards per attempt, the Texans were sufficiently convinced by Savage to trade two first-round picks and move up for Deshaun Watson this April. If Savage is a viable pro quarterback, it will be a surprise to the franchise that keeps trying to replace him. It's more plausible that Houston would get better quarterback play from Watson. Osweiler averaged 4.3 adjusted net yards per attempt last season. There have been 10 other passers since 1990 taken between picks 11 and 20 of the first round who have thrown passes as a rookie. Those passers have combined to average 4.9 ANY/A. Watson is certainly a higher-upside option than Osweiler or any of the replacement-level quarterbacks the Texans would have brought in on a backup's salary to compete. As a rookie, Watson is a high-variance option, as is the case for any debuting quarterback. That's hardly unreasonable, but it doesn't necessarily push the Texans forward more often than it holds them back. As a team built to win now, the Texans should be able to rely upon a dominant defense and put together a passable offense. If they're right about Watson, they could angle for a Super Bowl spot, but it's more plausible that the team goes with Savage before turning to Watson, who mixes flashes of brilliance with the sort of mistakes you make when you're a rookie in a new league.
I completely understand the opinion that the Titans will continue to improve and be the best team in the AFC South. I think the Texans front 7 is getting underrated by many in that they will give us a chance against any team. If we can get some production on offense then the ceiling is through the roof. Also Fvck Tony Romo and Jerruh
To me it's just yet another team hyped to overtake the Texans, they have one every year. With Luck hurt it won't be the Colts and last year they embarrassed themselves by saying it would be the Jags, so this year they say it'll be the Titans. I don't think it has much chance of happening, but I understand why that's the team they picked this time given that they are looking for a team other than the Texans to win the South.
I don't care how much he tries to get. I care that he already signed the contract and has 2 years left. How would you feel if you had 2 years left on your car contract and the dealer decided to raise your payments because the cars sell for more now. A contract is a contract. He's not abiding by what he agreed to. He chose this career, not me.
Well that's the reason why the Texans likely don't give in and they make him play out his contract or retire. He's being compensated fairly in that he has the 2nd highest base salary and is in the top 10 when it comes to cap hit among all LT's in the NFL, so really he's just gonna have to suck it up. I get why he'd want that money guaranteed, but I just don't think the Texans take that risk.
On Nuk, the catch was amazing, but his hands get a little loose and it's likely either OPI or illegal contact when his hands go to the DB's facemask as he's pushing off. Even then, not many WR's in the league could make that catch.
No real surprises for me on this list, but it might surprise some to see that the kicker spot is considered truly up for grabs between Novak and Fairbairn. Personally I think the Samoan kid nabs the spot.
Fragile Tom gonna get hurt immediately! Spoiler 29. HOUSTON TEXANS The emergence of Nick Martin and Julie’n Davenport could work wonders for this line, but there’s little hope for the status quo from a season ago. Left guard Xavier Sua-Filo looks like a bust at this point after back-to-back seasons as a bottom 20 guard.
