Yes, I am.... mainly because those two men aren't on 2nd and 3rd, they're on 1st and 2nd. You need one run to tie, two runs to win, and you have 3 outs to work with and its the 9th inning. You have virtually zero bullpen to speak of, you're playing at home, and you've already squandered 3 good scoring chances in this very game, and you don't happen to have the most selective, or even an MVP-calibur player, at the plate. A double play (which is what happened) ended up taking the bat out of the #4 AND #5 hitters. Note, I wouldn't be advocating this situation if Berkman was batting 3rd and Pence batting 5th. Why? Because then you're taking the bat out of your true #3 and #4 hitters. I guess I'm saying Pence isn't a real #3 hitter... just happens to be having a good start to the season. There's always career numbers, career numbers, career numbers. Berkman did not just magically become a .238 hitter overnight. Hell, Jim Tracy thought enough of him to walk the winning run into scoring position, just so he wouldn't have to pitch to him last night.
Also, although I think every player SHOULD be able to lay down a sacrifice, some players simply can't or aren't proven at doing so. I hope that managers know who can be called upon to reasonably lay down a bunt and strategize accordingly. Considering Pence has never put down a sacrifice bunt and has an OBP over .400, letting him swing away was a reasonable decision.
Except a double play is the least likely scenario. Pence gets on base 40% of the time. You're suggesting guaranteeing an out to get a man to 3rd, when a hit, a deep fly ball, or a non-doubleplay groundball would all accomplish the same thing, with the hit not requiring an out and potentially winning the game. And in the scenario where Pence doesn't move up the runners and doesn't hit into a DP, you still have Lee and Berkman coming up to drive in the winning run as opposed to Berkman and Blum. Regardless of Berkman's slump, having Pence/Lee/Berkman trying to drive in a man from 2nd seems like better odds than having Berkman/Blum up trying to drive in a man from 3rd. Since arriving to Houston, Lee has matched Berkman in OPS each of his years here, with a higher AVG/SLG and lower OBP. I'd rather have them both have the opportunity to drive in the run than just one + Blum. .
Pence does not get on base 40% of the time. He just happens to be in a stretch over these past 2 months where he is doing that, and long-term statistics show that he's not likely to keep this up. Just like Berkman is not a .238 hitter. I know Pence is having a good season... it wasn't a travesty to let him hit... but when you have Berkman just sitting in that 5 hole wasting away, it was a pretty good chance to have him win the game right then and there. With the shape of our bullpen (Hakwins and nothing else), that was tantamount. Also, I wasn't expecting the DP at all. I was more expecting a strikeout... as Pence has shown poor plate discipline in his career thus far, and was facing an elite pitcher with good sinking stuff. Then you have one out and a guy at 2nd, instead of possibly having a guy at third with the same number of outs. I'm not sure there's a published stat for this, but I would venture to guess that in late game situations, a guy with third and less than 2 outs is more likely to score than a guy at 2nd or first with less than 2 outs. Also, IOW, no matter how well Pence has performed this year, he isn't the best candidate to be the #3 hitter in this lineup. Tejada will come back to earth as well eventually. The only constants are Berkman and Lee. Pence is a variable that could possibly improve on his season last year, as are Bourne and Keppinger. I-Rod is a constant that isn't a game-breaker, nor is he a slouch. Hell, I'm just glad we're at the point of the season where its actually fun to dissect late-game managerial decisions, rather than the usual "Astros suck... why even bother dicussing.... drayton is cheap, etc."
Considering he has never sacrificed in the major leagues and only once in the minor leagues, I think the odds were better that he would fail to sacrifice the runner to third (not an easy thing to do - even with a decent bunter) than grounding into a double play. Historically, Pence grounds into a DP about every 44 plate appearances. Historically, he has never successfully sacrificed in the majors.
In watching Pence this year (thus far), it is clearly obvious that he has changed his plate discipline and it doesn't appear accurate to use his past two years as an expectation. His K to BB ratio is almost 1 to 1. He is taking more pitches and not swinging at the slider away. It appears likely that his discipline is not a fluke.
All else being equal, yes. That's obviously true in all situations - late or early. But when your hitting options are Lee & Berkman or Berkman & Blum, I would say the odds change a bit. And that's not considering that you have a 30-40% chance of having bases loaded with no outs (walk or shallow hit) or having already won the game (hit) and another 20% or so chance (simple non-DP groundout or deep fly ball) of having a man on 3rd with 1 out in the scenario where you let Pence hit.
How many times has he been asked to attempt a sacrafice? Don't confuse "hasn't" with "can't". Pence is still at the stage of his career where he should be able to move runners when needed. He's not a young phenom like an A-rod or Pujols. He's not even a young Berkman. He's a solid young hitter with potential to become a big-time power hitter as he grows into his lanky frame... but he's not there yet.
I'll take Berkman and whoever when there's a runner at 3rd and less than 2 outs in a potential game-winning situation. Remember, the only way Lee bats is if there's not a base open... thus, a runner would be at 2nd, not at third. Lee-Berkman with a runner at 2nd is far different than Berkman-? and a runner at third, and nowhere to put Lance. Hell, Lee batting with first-second, a sinker-ball pitcher, and 1 out is screaming GIDP... I'd put decent $$$ on that.
Then I guess his other plate appearences in this game, where he K'd in the 3rd, and GIDP in the 9th, both with runners on and nobody out, were the flukes? I dunno. I'd be weary on the amount of stock attributed to Pence's good start. He's a promising young hitter, but I don't feel he's in the position to be entrusted with the #3 spot in this lineup.
Of course he is going to strike out and of course he is going to hit into DPs. The fact remains that this year he is striking out much less and walking much more and seeing more pitches per at bat. He has already walked as many times as he did in his rookie season and should surpass last year's total before the all star break. In one post you talk about historic trends, then in this one you talk about game trends. Do you agree that Pence is showing much better plate discipline this year than he has in his two previous seasons?
Yes, because in this case, the historic trends were matching the game trends... like I feared. I agree he's showing improvement... as you expect/hope most young players with a semblance of promise to do at this stage. However, do I feel like he's going to be a 1.000 OPS hitter with a +.400 OBP? No. I don't feel he's made that much progress. Thus, at some point, his numbers will take a decline... he'll go into a slump... and you will have him swinging at sliders low and away, as well as GIDP with 2 men on and nobody out. And, I don't feel he's a #3 hitter yet.
Go ahead and scoff... but if this team can get consistent pitching 3 out of every 5 games, there's no reason why they can't have a winning record. Out of the pitchers they have, we know that Oswalt and Wandy can be 2 out of the three. That leaves one quality performance from either Paulino, Moehler, or Hampton. Paulino has the god-given ability to be dominant... but I'll settle for quality. Hampton has the veteran capability to battle each game, but he's likely to break down at some point this season. Moehler has been inconsistent thus far... but actually has the best chance of the three in terms of control and durability. If they can get any sort of help in the bullpen, they may be just fine. As far as the offense goes, Berkman will come into his own, Bourne needs to continue what he's doing, Tejada will have a slump... but his best is still far better than I expected it to be, and Pence/Lee/Keppinger need to continue to be as consistent as they have been.
if i'm trailing by 1 run or tied in the 8th or 9th inning, with runners on 1st and 2nd and no outs, i bunt. i know i said pujols, but he is probably the only player in the majors who'd make me waver with that decision. but, lance berkman, hunter pence, carlos lee, miguel tejada....i'd bunt with them all (if they knew how), and this is without even factoring in how incapable this team has been delivering a clutch base hit the past 7 or 8 years. i'll take one chance at a sac fly, well positioned grounder, or hit + another chance at a hit + those 2 atbats-worth of chances at a wild pitch or passed ball over 3 chances at a base hit any day of the week.
i'd rather have a terrible record than another around .500 season. just to send a clear message to Drayton that yes even he has to rebuild.
