Beautiful analysis of the paper, CXbby. Thanks! I really don't know how you do it. It will be interesting to see if 7-8-12 can be realized here. NBA players talk about importance of a player's "situation" in determining which players achieve high success in the League. Lin may not be able to live up to expectations, but this year it certainly seems like it won't be for lack of fit with his team. The above posts made me think of this: "To be on the right team, which he is right now, he can really help and play his role very well and be effective," Olajuwon said.
I wonder if having Howard will affect how they utilize Lin. It will oviously affect the results of individual plays, but will they fiddle with things in the Lin/Harden usage as a result. Obviously this encompasses the question of Lin being up to the task of being utilized differently.
I suspect usage questions will revolve almost entirely on maximizing Harden and Howard's potential. To the extent that Lin can help Howard be productive, and only then, might his usage go up. mdrowe00 (Dec 2008) said this earlier this week in the Hakeem Olajuawon thread which you might find interesting. ....we'll have to wait to see if it's true. ".... Howard can't be the offensive player that Hakeem was for more than the obvious reasons. Howard is still "raw" as a post option, and doesn't make especially good decisions with the basketball as a passer. Howard's deisre for "more touches" (something he harped on incessantly in Orlando) will have to be mitigated for the time being. And pick-and-roll baskeball with him is the best way to do that, I think. Again, Harden doesn't need to be accommodated offensively, He's going to "get his", as we used to say, so touches for him aren't at a premium. Howard will need to be involved offensively, bacause his greatest strengths are his mobility and athleticism. A good point guard in pick-and-roll situations, with Howard's ability to finish those plays...or at least draw inordinate amounts of attention as he rolls to the basket...will be able to flourish if he can make good decisions. That is one aspect of Lin's play that is a bit overlooked, if only because here in Houston we didn't get to see it often. ...."
I am curious of how the players are categorized. Off the top of my head, since I started watching basketball, the PGs that played with a post/wing combo are as followed. Kenny Smith Derek Harper Avery Johnson Derek Fisher Tony Parker Jason Williams Rafer Alston Mark Jackson(if you count Rik Smits) I may have missed a few, but that should cover most of the important ones. Other than Tony Parker, all the other PGs fit under one of two categories. One is being a cookie cutter role player(Avery, Kenny, Fisher types). The other is being ex-featured player that takes on a reduced role, like Harper, White Chocolate, or Mark Jackson. Although Jackson's kind of a special case because he's the rare top-notch distributor with limited offensive game. And of course, there's Tony Parker. So there seems to be three issues. One is a lack of sample size, mainly due to the rise of scoring PGs and the fall of traditional low post bigs kind of happened at the same time. The other is how categorizing players work. Jason Williams and Harper would be considered high scoring/high assist guys for their career. But not when they played with Ewing/Starks or Wade/Shaq. And third, most of the sample size would involve Tony Parker. :grin:
Of course, Tony Parker says Lin reminds him of himself when he was younger. Does this mean we should consider looking to the spurs to pattern after? They seem like a pretty effective pattern.
Off the top of my head, I'd also add: Jameer Nelson/Turkoglu/Howard and Aaron Brooks/Artest/Yao for a short stint The wing player doesn't have to be a star player, just a scorer with decent assists and 3PT shooting. That should broaden the sample size somewhat. The post player, by the paper's definition, would almost always be an allstar though. As for categorizing the player, they should definitely be grouped by their player types at the time, not over the course of their career. Williams/Harper's early playing style would not affect their synergy with those latter combos if they played completely differently. But yeah, the sample size does seem lacking. Jameer is another prominent one that experienced success with their trio, so at least that doubles the sample.
I know far less basketball than you guys, but what came to mind was Stockton/Malone/Hornacek Johnson/Barkley/Ainge Not right? Agreed, about small sample size. Also because 3 PT shooting didn't start to become more widely used until mid 90s.
FWIW, here's what Jeremy Lin said in an interview about next season. So it's apparent that at least from the Rockets perspective, they are trying to make Lin a more complete player with more off-ball skills.
Short interview at his movie premier where he comments on transitioning to a new role last year, saying he's "not there yet". http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OKvHYnaA2vE It's clear what the Rockets want out of Lin seeing how they used him last year. It's also clear what Lin himself is comfortable with which is dominating the ball ala a CP3 or Nash. We see this with his comments last year after the Orlando game with Harden out when Lin says something to the tune of he's happy to be "The pg" as opposed to just "a pg". I can see where he is coming from, since he experienced his greatest success, both individually and team-wise by playing that style. But for this team he has to adjust and sacrifice, and becoming a complete player and playing off the ball is a main part of that. With that said, I think next season the pendulum will swing a bit the other way, where Jeremy will be on the ball a little more. Some of his best moments last year was running the pick and roll with Greg Smith. I think the Rockets will exploit that with Dwight now, and them working together recently is a hint of that. Jeremy's never going to be "The" pg here, but he doesn't have to sit in the corner like Derek Fisher either. He needs to strike a healthy balance, and despite what some of the haters/lovers say, that's actually exactly what we saw last year. It wasn't smooth all the time as he/the coaches/the team are still adapting to the role. And this year, with the addition of Dwight, he will have the luxury of playing to his strengths even more.
Malone and Barkley are both 5's, "dynamic well-rounded power forwards". The primary difference between 5 and 12 is the difference in blocks, with 12 at 2.3 while 5's under 1. While 12 and 5 are both high scoring big men, what separates 12 is his ability as a center to anchor a defense.
Interesting to hear your views. I agree. -- The challenge regarding Jeremy’s usage is that the Rockets have a surplus of playmaking ability in the backcourt in Lin and Harden. But that is a very good “problem” to have. They were very good together last year, and it was already amazing to consider how good they could be in the future. And then Howard signed with the Rockets. Still amazing to me. I think the combination of the three of them does provide the possibility of very good synergies. Lin will not ever be the focus of the offense in Houston like a Steve Nash or Chris Paul. And, frankly, that may be for the best for him, given that it’s not yet clear whether he will develop the skill set necessary to aspire to such a role. But Howard’s joining the Rockets does change the mix dramatically, and, as the Ayers’ paper suggests, I think Lin’s role will become even more crucial. And this last point -- I’d be very interested in others' views on --, I don’t think Lin will ever be better than Harden at executing the drives, or even necessarily making the assists, but it does seem to me, he is a better at setting up the table (for others to make big plays one or two plays down the line). It would be nice to see the Rockets capitalize on that a little more.
A question for me is does it make more sense for our team to concentrate the superstar talent (always have Harden & Howard together) or to spread it out a little and make sure at least one of them is always on the court. With Lin and Asik we have mini-me versions of Harden and Howard who while more flawed can play similar complementary roles. Which way results in more total points?
We'll have to disagree on this, because I'm certain that Lin's usage rate will decrease next season if he starts. The only way I can see things happen the way you feel is if Lin comes off the bench, because our bench players lack scoring threats. But if Lin starts, he's going to play the Derek Fisher role for at least the first 8 minutes of the game. In this I have no doubt about.
I'm not saying it will rise by much, just marginally. Might even just stay the same. I think they will try to emulate the Spurs a lot more than the Lakers with Kobe/Shaq. Lin is obviously not as good as Parker but their style of play resembles a lot more than compared to Fisher's. While Harden is a mirror image of Manu with an expanded role, much more similar than compared with Kobe. Shaq/Duncan/Dwight are all dominant post presences. Also, Lin playing the Fisher role would negate any synergy that the paper we've been discussing suggests. I do think that Dwight will be more heavily utilized on offense than people think. We will actually run the offense through him plenty in the half court. It will be more than just the pick and rolls. Harden's usage should drop slightly since he won't be forced to bail us out as much. And Parsons should be relegated to purely finishing off shots created by others. I could be wrong though. Thankfully we will get to see soon how they plan to use everyone.
In case interesting: Taking the third player off the table, and focusing on Harden and Howard. According to the Ayer's paper, of all possible combinations of top two players on a team, the best synergies are created by a 8-12 combination. Which would be Harden-Howard, if Harden were playing an 8 role. Regression coefficient for this combination is +7.59. 2 - high scoring guard who relies on isolation plays 8 - high scoring wing who excels in flow of offense; high assists for his position, and high 3 PT shooting Again, it is just one paper, and interesting to consider. ...
Harden is definitely an 8. His three point shooting makes him a bad fit for Cluster 2. After the pairing an 8-12, the rational gathered from the paper suggest the Rockets should try to get or develop a Cluster 7 star, don't try to get a "Cluster 10 star", and any other star has an unknown fit.
Yes, I forgot to include, for cluster 2, the paper also says: "typically not great 3 point shooters, or if they are, don’t shoot very many"
