I don't either, but when the coaches are publicly calling out his work ethic and commenting that they never saw 1 good practice from him the writing is on the wall.
Colts signed S Dwight Lowery, formerly of the Falcons. Lowery, 29, was one of the worst cover safeties in the league last year, grading out in the bottom-half of PFF's ratings. He'll be asked to play the strong side opposite Mike Adams. Lowery's signing won't prevent the Colts from upgrading their secondary in the draft. Source: Kevin Bowen on Twitter I really like what the Colts are doing. Paying out the butt for past their prime vets and aquiring bad cover guys. We really do have a shot at winning this division and Chuck Pagano may not be back next year after all.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>More <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Texans?src=hash">#Texans</a> jersey numbers: 18 Cecil Shorts III 21 Darryl Morris 26 Rahim Moore 48 Kourtnei Brown 85 Nate Washington 94 Tevita Finau</p>— Drew Dougherty (@DoughertyDrew) <a href="https://twitter.com/DoughertyDrew/status/585101794457432064">April 6, 2015</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Looks to me that they've just been adding veterans to a core of young guys they already have and they've really improved on the offensive side of the ball. But I can definitely see Chuck being shown the door after this season.
In all the articles you read about Pagano, they'll list his career record as 33-15, conveniently ignoring that he was 2-2* (not 11-5) as an actual head coach his first year. Bruce Arians ran that team and went 9-3*. And btw, two years later, it's the offense that Arians built that's carrying that team, not its defense (Pagano's supposed area of expertise). I think he's a vastly overrated coach. * I'd argue he was really 1-2; Arians 10-3. He coached the final game of the regular season (against Houston, of course) but was likely more figurehead as it would have made zero sense to not let Arians keep running things at that point.
He did likely implement the game-plan that beat Denver in the playoffs this year. Also, a team continuing to do well after a coach leaving could just as easily imply that the departing coach (Arians) was also overrated. In the end, in the mostly short-term memory/short-leash/short-lived world that is most NFL coaches, Pagano should be judged on his results... which have been very good in his first head coaching stint.
J.J. Watt sighting at the national championship game, rooting on his badgers in the first row.... despite John McClain doing his usual gas-bag routine on the radio saying that he'd be in a suite and wouldn't be shown since he doesn't want to take away any attention from the team. Honestly, at this point somebody should just relegate him to writing features and the occasional column... he's just flat-out making stuff up everyday now.
Sure, if we're OK with no one applying even an ounce of critical thought to the conversation. Indianapolis has been a tremendous offense saddled with a terrible defense. Arians built the offense; Pagano the defense. I don't necessarily think it's that black-&-white simple - but I think far too many people are forgetting the narrative, evidenced by the continued reporting of Pagano's record: he is NOT 33-15 as a head coach - not unless you're going to slap a giant asterisks on it. Yes; they're also, as I mentioned, routinely distorted. As a head coach, he's 24-12 - very, very good. But there's a definite likelihood that someone else (Arians) did the heavy lifting. Remember, Pagano's last game as a head coach before his medical leave was a home loss to the Jags, one of two wins for Jacksonville that season. And Arians has proven in Arizona that he's a good head coach. It's very possible Pagano returned to a team with a foundation someone else built - I certainly think, when his credentials are discussed, that should at least be mentioned. It's possible the Colts are a different team if Pagano builds them that first year. And that goes both ways - better/worse. I don't think he's a *bad* coach; the Colts have, at least in the postseason, improved every year with him. But I don't think the talk of him potentially being a lame duck is that unfounded. He has a once-in-a-generation QB; meanwhile, the thing he supposedly specializes in (the defense) remains below-average.
But Arians' success at Arizona has been primarily on the defensive side of the ball. That defense was already pretty good.
But you yourself is also taking the "simplistic" view and simply looking at game results and offense vs. defense as a reason why a coach may or may not be having an impact. There is so much more that goes into being an NFL head coach with actions/inactions performed on a year-round basis that eventually impacts performance. Yes, Pagano wasn't on the sidelines for much of that first successful season... but do you honestly think Arians being the interim head coach for those games was the sole reason for the success (or more importantly, Pagano NOT being there was a reason for the success)? Are you willing to ignore all the off-season activities/training camps and roster construction that a head coach has a huge say in? Also, the fact that they didn't really miss a beat when he came back, and Arians left, doesn't really point to him being a "bad" coach. Again, Pagano has benefitted greatly from the talent his GM has helped acquire (minus Trent Richardson)... but you're basically cherry-picking the "good" aspects that you're ready to attribute to Arians, and pinning all the "bad" aspects on Pagano.
We can agree/disagree on Arians' impact - my point is that he undoubtedly had one, a fact that is routinely left out of the Chuck Paganao story, evidenced by how often his career record is misstated (he's 24-12; not 33-15). I *do* think Pagano is overrated; he had the good fortune of falling backwards into Andrew Luck and I think Arians set the foundation during Luck's critical first year. They've gone farther in the playoffs - but regular season-wise (which is a much larger sample), they've, more or less, stalled at 11 wins - this, despite the division getting progressively worse the past three years.
