Overall agree. I'd put the Phillies as a team that should be adding a little as I expect they want to be big players in next year's free agent bonanza. I think getting closer to a 0.500 would show potential free agents that they are ready to challenge for the NL East Title if Harper leaves the Nats.
Duffy is under contract for 4 years and about $60M, so he'd make sense. On one hand he has a good ERA over the last few years, but SIERA and xFIP aren't very optimistic about that continuing. He's kinda similar to JA Happ. I think the luxury tax and next year's FA class are what is killing this FA period.
Duffy is another guy that has been consistently awesome is first time through the lineup. Productive innings in the regular season, short burst wipeout guy in the postseason. 60 million over 4 years is pretty manageable these days. Luhnow knows how thin we will get on proven pitching over the next 2 years. He could help stabilize that issue. Although he doesn't address the front end issue, it does give us a support net to see if we can't develop an ace in house without having to give out a lucrative contract. This is all assuming adding him via trade is a relatively cheap option.
I guess I’m just not that worried about these future rotations: 2019: Verlander, McCullers, Whitley, McHugh/Peacock/Martes/Musgrove/Paulino 2020: Whitley, McCullers, Martes, Bukauskas, Peacock/Musgrove/Paulino 2021: Whitley, McCullers, Martes, Bukauskas, Musgrove/Paulino 2022: Whitley, Martes, Bukauskas, Musgrove, Paulino Of course some of those guys won’t pan out, but the talent level, depth, and payroll flexibility is all there.
Of Whitley, Martes, and Bukauskas, my bet is only one of them pans out and/or are on the team by 2022.
By "pans out", I merely meant makes the club. That could be marginal ML replacement level or superstar. The former more likely by a good margin.
Maybe as a starter, but they still have the stuff to be strong relievers as Martes showed last year when the rotation started getting healthy again
It's more than overly optimistic to think most of our pitching prospects will pan out. If you can even have a 50% success rate you are killing it
If you HAD to add one of those 6 to the Astros payroll, what would you do and why? I'd be happy with Darvish just because top end pitching is always had to find, I know it's probably risky to put stock in a 31 year old with major injury past that only preforms every 5th day. Martinez I would be excited to see in the line up, but not my first choice. He'd be another big time bat from the right and has done well versus the Yankees. Arrieta same comment as Darvish (but not "happy") with less enthusiasm since he appears to be falling off with his fastball last season and with more innings on his arm. Hosmer would be a VERY nice fit, Lefty bat, gold glove 1B, just turned 28. You could move Gurriel in a trade if need be $30 million over next 3 seasons or make him DH/utility. I know the system is already stacked at 1B with Reed and White. But this would be an answer to Yankees power trio and there stud right handed pitching. Plus he LOVES MMP .362 BA Moustakas I don't see him worth $100 mil for the Astros. Never has driven in more than 85 runs or scored more than 75. Cain Good player and knows what he is doing at the plate but not worth $100 mil for the Astros. Hosmer for the gold Darvish silver Martinaez the bronze
Is anyone else thinking 2018 is the last year for these two to make the club? Are we stacked in the absence of them?
Teams always need AAA-AAAA guys for fill-in depth. Their prospect status is about expired, and they're unlikely to fetch much of anything in a trade.
All those guys make some sense for Houston. In order of preference: Darvish makes sense for Houston at any reasonable price. At more than $180M he’s a bad deal. At $150M he’s a fair value with risk. At $120M he’s a steal. Martinez doesn’t make sense for at more than $150M and I really wouldn’t like Houston to go that high, but somebody will pay him that much. But he’d be a great fit in the lineup. Hosmer would be a good fit but to me he’s only worth right at $120M/6yr. They could move Gurriel to a LF/DH/Utility role. I’m not a big believer in Moustakas, Cain, or Arrieta, so I wouldn’t want Houston handing any of them a 9 figure deal. But Cain would fit great in Houston’s OF for 4-5 seasons (for like $80M), and Arrieta would be a good replacement for Keuchel (again, at $80M). Something awfully weird would have to happen with Moustakas for him to end up in Houston. But at the right price he becomes the 3B and Bregman moves to left; the right price for me would be a pillow 2 year deal for like $18M/yr. Looking at the current market, if I’m Luhnow or making predictions, I like Lucroy, CarGo, and Hand, with Darvish ending up with the Cubs or Angels, and Houston having chips to make a run at Archer, Fulmer, Stroman, Taillon, Samardzija, or Cueto at the deadline or next offseason.
Replacement level is what is expected from utility players. White's bat so far has been above replacement level.
