I’m interested to see what the fallout is from Atlanta’s international signing scandal. If Kevin Maitan and Abraham Gutierrez are both declared free agents this offseason Id love to see Houston sign them.
Payroll will eventually quit rising. Anyway, in 5 years, either the deal will be terrible for us, or Stanton would have hit FA because he opted out after year 3.
My main contention with going after Stanton is that it isn't a great allocation of resources. If this team is gonna hit a speed bump over the next 3 years, it is highly unlikely it will be because of our offense. Keuchel and Morton are free agents after this year, Verlander(who is aging to begin with) and McHugh after 2019. That only leaves us with the ever so fragile McCullers and Peacock. Unless we develop 2 front end guys from the farm we are gonna need to find some pitching, or pony up and pay DK which I don't see us doing. The 30 million and prospects it will cost to have Stanton to me are better used addressing the issue that seems to be much more dangerous. I'm not really in the all in on this window camp to begin with, but I can see why somebody would feel that way. Even for this window, I don't love the move.
I think it’s safe to say that as things currently stand the front office fully expects Martes and Whitley to be in the rotation long term. Add McCullers and you’re only looking for 2 starters; if Whitley and/or Martes reach their ceiling then the need would only be for a BoR arm like Morton or McHugh, which can be had pretty affordably. With the number of high ceiling arms in the system and the orgs track record of developing pitchers, I am not worried about replacing Keuchel, McHugh, or Morton. Of course it’s impossible to guarantee developing a hall of fame player like Verlander so that may very well be a need in a couple years.
If the Astros take on the vast majority of Stanton's salary, they are not going to be giving up any prospects of note.
If he's coming for little and the only cost is assuming the risk then I'm a certainly more OK with it, I'm pretty confident he will opt out in 3 years. I'm just not sure why a team like the Red Sox wouldn't scoop him up if that were the case.
The Red Sox may scoop him up, they are looking at a number of options. The issue with the Red Sox is that they apparently do have no budget issues, and they are concerned they will not be able to wrap up some of their younger players to extensions. The best way to look at it, came from an agent that said that IF Stanton was a free agent right now, he likely would get a monster deal but not one quite as big as the one he currently has. That means his value is pretty similar to his contract. The Marlins have to decide if they want the whole contract off the books OR prospects. If they eat 50-75 million then they can get some pretty good prospects back. However, that is a lot of money for a team with budget and spending issues. The player option also complicates his value. There is no pay off to it for the team trading for him. If he does well he opts out, if he falls on his face or is injured, he opts in. Teams are not going to want to dump prospects for a guy that can unilaterally opt out. Last, keep in mind that Stanton has a full no trade clause and can use that to get even more money guaranteed or more protections in his contract.
Dumping salary is their primary, if not sole motivation. Getting prospects back is eye wash so ownership doesn't look completely mercenary with no feeling for the fans.
My current hypothetical for Stanton to Houston: Astros get: OF Giancarlo Stanton $45M Marlins get: SP Francis Martes OF Derek Fisher SP Hector Perez That’s 3 good prospects for Miami, and Houston only takes on $32M total over the next 3 years if he opts out. Not sure what the benefit to Stanton is, I assume he wants off the losing team and going to the current Champs is appealing. Maybe give him another $2-3M over the next few years.
Giants apparently offering Chris Shaw, Panik, and Tyler Beede. Cardinals offering Sandy Alcantara. If that's the going rate then that Martes/Fisher/Perez type offer is competitive. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/giancarlo-stanton-trade-rumors-moncay.html
Sucks to be Moran, White, and Davis. Those guys all are interesting, but doubtful they can make active roster with Gattis as a full time DH.
LOL... what if we added Stanton to this effing team? Holy ****, you guys need to stop... it's all too much!!
Its now or never for this kind of move. Once we start signing our core, it wont happen. Maybe not this move specifically though.
I totally agree... just has me giddy with anticipation. So fun to matter in baseball. I think due to how many games are played and the fact that it's the only major sport going on in the summer, baseball is depressing as hell when your team is bad and SO ****ING FUN when they're awesome. Damn, I love the Astros.
If you can't make this kind of move after signing our core, you can't make this move now and keep everyone that you would by not acquiring him. Altuve definitely has overlap and should be taken of first, IMO.
Who we can keep later is one issue. Whether we can afford to get better now is another. But its not the case that the later is defined by the former. Yea, if we add an addl core guy now, we might have one more we have to let walk later, true. But having that extra guy for 3 or 4 years makes us better in the next 3-4 years. As for later, right now we might have 4 guys for three future core spots. Adding a extra guy now might make it 5 guys for three spots. I like the later numbers better in fact because you can make that choice from a bigger sample, 5 vs 4. In either case, if Altuve is your guy, you can still choose him. Adding a guy now doesn't change that.
