Martinez would be a bargain at anything under $130M. Anything over $160M is probably an overpay. I think he ends up in the $170M/6yr range.
Some advanced metrics are similar, but overall not close. Marisnick is closer to Martinez in WAR than Martinez is to Harper over last 3 years.
Potential Reliever Targets for the Astros in Free Agency Here is a list of potential targets for the Astros by AstrosFuture Nov 9, 2017, 1:38pm PST Last night I was perusing on Twitter and I saw some talk about signing free agents. Some wanted outfielders, some wanted starters, some wanted relievers. It got me thinking though. With the Astros losing a few relievers to free agency this off-season, especially two guys from the World Series roster (Luke Gregerson, Francisco Liriano), I think the Astros will be in the market for relievers. But I don't think it will be the big money guys like Wade Davis and Greg Holland. Here are some relievers I think could be good fits for the Astros as far as budget and contract goes. I will use the MLB Trade Rumors contract predictions for this article. I also think they will/should be in the market for another lefty to replace Sipp. Here is my list: Brandon Morrow, RHP Morrow is a guy Astros fans will be familiar with due to his time with the Dodgers in the World Series. Yes, the Astros rocked him in game 5, but he pitched in all 7 games and outside of game 5, was pretty solid against the best offense in the league. Morrow was a starter for the majority of his career before making the full transition to the bullpen in 2016. Over the last two seasons with SDP and LA he had a combined 1.96 ERA, 2.30 FIP and 58 K in 59.2 IP, and didn't allow a single HR in the 2017 regular season. Morrow had a solid groundball rate this season at 45% and will add another high velocity arm with his 98 MPH fastball and 89 MPH slider. MLB Trade Rumors Contract Prediction - 3 year, $24 million Bryan Shaw, RHP Shaw has been one of the better relievers over the 6-7 years including leading the league in appearances three times with the Indians. Just looking at ERA, Shaw had his worst season of his career (3.52) but he also had his best career FIP (2.96) indicating he might have pitched better than it shows. He had 22 BB/73 K in 76.2 innings this season. Shaw also had a very good groundball rate at 55.9% but had a career high in BABIP (.311) this season. Overall, Shaw appears to be a guy the Astros could run out there and count on having a very good season and bolstering the middle innings. Shaw throws a 95 MPH cutter and an 83 MPH slider. MLB Trade Rumors Contract Prediction - 3 year, $21 million Mike Minor, LHP Minor came up with the Braves and was a decent starter from 2010-2014. He missed the 2015 and 2016 seasons due to injury but finally made it back to the big leagues as a reliever with the Royals in 2017. Minor was absolutely dominating this season posting a 2.55 ERA with 88 K in 77.2 innings. This also came with a 2.62 FIP while allowing just 6.6 hits per 9 innings. Minor also dominated left handed hitters in 2017. Lefties hit just .163 with .423 OPS against him in 102 plate appearances. Moving to the bullpen also allowed Mike Minor to see an uptick in his velocity. As a starter he set around 91 MPH but this year averaged 94-95 MPH with a high of 97 MPH in August and September. Minor would give the Astros a dominant left option but could also be a full inning guy and not just a LOOGY. MLB Trade Rumors Contract Prediction - 4 year, $28 million Jake McGee, LHP McGee made his name known in 2015 with the Rays when he had a 1.89 ERA and 90 K in 71.1 innings. The Rockies ended up trading for him prior to the 2016 in an attempt to bolster their bullpen. Unfortunately, his first year with Colorado did not go well as he had a 4.73 ERA and just 38 K in 45.2 innings. As expected though, his road numbers were a bit better. McGee turned it around in 2017 with a 3.61 ERA (2.93 FIP) and 58 K in 57.1 innings. He was very good on the road posting a 2.64 ERA and 1.93 FIP with 32 K in 30.2 innings. McGee isn't necessarily a groundball guy like the Astros like but if employed properly, he could be a good add. McGee still maintained his velocity in 2017 averaging 95+ MPH on his fastball. MLB Trade Rumors Contract Prediction - 3 year, $18 million Anthony Swarzak, RHP Swarzak has been up and down throughout his career but really found his groove this year with the White Sox and Brewers. Prior to his trade to the Brewers, Swarzak had a 2.23 ERA/2.35 FIP with 52 K in 48.1 innings. He was traded to Milwaukee and continued his success with a 2.48 ERA and increasing his strikeout rate to 12.1 K/9. Swarzak also some an uptick in his velocity this year as he averaged 95 MPH with his fastball, topping out at 97 MPH. Due to his up and down career, MLB trade rumors don't expect him to get a big deal. If he performs like he did in 2017 though, the following prediction would be a steal. MLB Trade Rumors Contract Prediction - 2 year, $14 million Steve Cishek, RHP Cishek is an unorthodox thrower with a submarine style. Like Swarzak, he has been up and down in his career. He had a couple very good seasons with the Marlins as their closer before falling a bit in 2015. But since then, he has returned to be a very good reliever. In 2017 he had a combined 2.01 ERA with 41 K in 44.2 innings. He started the year with Seattle and was then moved to Tampa Bay where he allowed just 3 runs in 24.2 innings. Cishek has posted good groundball rates throughout his career and had a very good 56.1 groundball percentage in 2017. The only worry with Cishek is that his velocity was down a bit this year with his sinker averaging 91 MPH (though it continually got higher as the season went on). Due to his up and down recent seasons, he is also projected for a small signing. MLB Trade Rumors Contract Prediction - 2 year, $14 million
This is a good list of who I think Astros go for if the payroll doesn't dramatically increase. I think Astros kick tires on Correa, Altuve, and Springer regarding extensions as well as looking at trades for small salary guys with surplus value.
Crazy thought: trade for Joey Votto. Does Yordan Alvarez + Bukaukus + Derek Fisher get it done? Just dreaming: 1. Springer CF 2. Votto 1B 3. Altuve 2B 4. Correa SS 5. Bregman 3B 6. Gurriel DH 7. Reddick RF 8. Gonzalez LF 9. McCann C
The problem is that the money to pay Votto likely would have to come out of Crane's vault labeled the "Atuve Fund". I don't think Astros can keep everyone, but it looks like Astros should be able to keep at least two of Altuve, Springer, and Correa.
Springer may take a pay cut for us. The city has really taken to him these last few weeks. Athletes, want to feel loved and there is no safer place for them in the league than Houston.
It's highly unlikely. There are very few athletes in their prime that take pay cuts for "love". He'll get loved and feel safe by whatever team pays him. The team isn't going after high-end players when they are going to struggle to pay their own guys. Our high priced acquisition was Justin Verlander - I think people need to give up on the idea of guys like Votto or Stanton or even Wade Davis. We have a core we're going to build around, and we'll supplement it with small add-ons, but we're no longer in a position to spend on free agency on non-necssities with the financial armageddon we have coming soon.
Athletes take small pay cuts often for "Love". Justin Turner is the only one I can think of that took a significant paycut in MLB recently and it was no where close to $150 million.
I bet many felt that way about Beltran right before he signed with the Mets. Springer is 28 and under team control until 32, he's going for the big one in his first free agency contract, unless the Astros unexpectedly offer him a multiyear contract before his arb years are up.
Targets by need, November edition: Left handed reliever: Internal: Tony Sipp, Reymin Guduan, Framber Valdez, Cionel Perez, Kent Emanuel, Alex Winkelman Free agents: Jake McGee, Mike Minor, Boone Logan, Tony Watkins, Fernando Abad, Francisco Liriano, Zack Duke, Glen Perkins, Brian Deunsing, Trade: Zack Britton, Brad Hand, Scott Alexander Closer/setup: Internal: James Hoyt, Michael Feliz, Jandel Gustave, Francis Martes, David Paulino, Brendan McCurry, Riley Ferrell, Rogelio Armenteros, Dean Deetz, Forrest Whitley Free agents: Wade Davis, Greg Holland, Brian Shaw, Fernando Rodney, Juan Nicasio, Brandon Kintzler, Addison Reed, Seung Oh, Brandon Morrow, Anthony Swarzak, Tyler Clippard, Neftali Feliz Trade: Raisel Iglesias, Kelvin Herrera, Brad Ziegler, Roberto Osuna, Hector Neris, Arosys Vizcaino, Shane Greene, Santiago Casilla, Felipe Rivero, Jim Johnson Left handed bat: Internal: Derek Fisher, Colin Moran, Tony Kemp, AJ Reed, Kyle Tucker, Juan Centeno, Preston Tucker, Jon Kemmer, Jon Singleton, Jason Martin Free Agents: Carlos Santana, Eric Hosmer, Yonder Alonso, Logan Morrison, Jay Bruce, Neil Walker, Lucas Duda, Melky Cabrera, Michael Saunders, Jarrod Dyson, Carlos Gonzalez, Jon Jay, Nori Aoki, Curtis Granderson, Adam Lind, Mitch Moreland, Alex Avila Trade: Joey Votto, Justin Bour, Brandon Belt, Jed Lowrie, Christian Yelich, Cory Dickerson, Kevin Keirmaier, Cesar Hernandez, Shin Soo Choo, Salvador Perez Snake’s picks: McGee, Herrera, Duda
For a bit I thought it would be a great idea to trade for Osuna. But then I looked at his career stats and realized that Ken Giles has been better thus far. If the price is right I'd be fine looking at Osuna (he probably will cost a lot as a 22yo closer with lots of club control remaining). But I do not believe he would have the immediate edge over Giles who still carries a 2.43 career ERA and 2.25 career FIP. The sliders were broken because of the baseballs in the world series. Because of this fact, we had to shut down Ken Giles after he cost us one, and almost two games. Nonetheless, we still adapted to it better than the Dodgers could. Keuchel Verlander and especially Peacock had to learn to pitch without a slider with much break if any on it, but for the most part they were able to. Kershaw, Jansen, but especially Darvish got hit hard in response. We shouldn't let this fact cloud our judgment: Giles is still an incredibly valuable guy to keep in the back of our pen. You look to shore things up with the rest of the pen, but you definitely don't cut bait with Giles. There are only so many Kimbrels, Jansens, Andrew Millers, and Cody Allens in the world. Giles has the potential to get up there still. Not too many others do, and the cost to get someone already at that level would be astronomical in terms of prospects.
It's always unlikely that an athlete takes a pay cut, but it's even more unlikely in MLB, where there's no salary cap. It's tough for a front office to make the case to a baseball player that their pay cut will allow the team to improve overall when there's nothing but the owner's own bottom line keeping the team from signing him to whatever deal he wants. Compare that to the NBA or NFL, where a salary cap limits, in a very real way, how much money a team can give any one player. Players aren't dumb and you can't expect them to take less money so that a billionaire owner can be a little bit richer in the end.
Just have to get someone to figure out his anxiety issue. Think how much that would haunt him in a world series.
I hope for the 2018 team to be: C McCann, Gattis IF Gurriel, Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Marwin OF Reddick, Springer, A trade of either Andrew McCutchen or Christian Yelich, Marisnick Final spot (left handed bat) amongst Fisher, Kyle Tucker, Moran, Reed, Kemp, Centeno SP Keuchel, Verlander, McCullers, Morton, McHugh LHRP Mike Minor RHRP Peacock, Giles, Musgrove, Harris, Steve Cishek, Devenski (Closer) Final spot amongst Martes, Feliz, Paulino, Fiers, Sipp, etc
Fisher alone should be an upgrade at DH to Beltrán. Or even Moran. Tucker is also waiting in the wings. Correa was an MVP candidate and still should improve tremendously. Bregman could have a large jump. Offensively if the Astros did absolutely nothing in the offseason besides negotiate with Altuve, I wouldn’t even care. I’m sure they’ll look at reasonable options to improve though. Starters look set. Give me a quality bullpen guy from the list above and I’m ready to go. Love this team.
