Cole is going to free agency and after that Corbin deal who can blame him. If I had to guess, he's an Angel or Giant in 2020. I heard the Astros wanted to extend Pressly. Sucks he's not interested according to Nook. The Astros know they don't have to do anything and will still most likely win the division. In the meantime, they will continue to search for upgrades and they have until July/August to build their playoff roster to run with the Yankees and Red Sox. They want to give the young guys a chance because it gives them so much flexibility if Tucker, Whitley, Josh James, etc become solid players.
There’s a large group of fringy lefty SP that I think would make sense for Houston, since they would be cheap, and could easily add value in the bullpen if they didn’t cut it as starters or were beaten out by a young arm: Jaime Garcia Brett Anderson Gio Gonzalez Drew Pomeranz Wade Miley Francisco Liriano Hector Santiago
Guys more likely to sign early extensions are ones who aren't making much money (see Altuve), or ones that are worried about arm trouble/regression catching up with them before they get to free agency. A lot can happen in one season from both parties standpoints. If Verlander has no fear about breaking down any time soon, and we know he's not itching to make more money, his agent should rightly advise him to wait. He gets to see what the makeup is of the Astros going to 2020 and beyond. Gets a better sense of which of the homegrown players may be sticking around or extended vs. those who will be let go as free agents. Gets a better sense of what the rest of the league is doing, and who the main competition will be. On an unrelated note, I thought Keuchel (or his agent) should have had more foresight back in 2015 and negotiated a long-term extension then. Not surprised that he's going to likely end up with less career earnings from this point on, compared to if he had signed a bigger deal then (also, not broken up that the Astros got the best years of Keuchel at a cheaper rate, which allowed them to spend money elsewhere).
This is so clearly defined by Lunhow's deals so far. First, Lunhow trades for Diaz to be in the Marwin role (minus the switch hitter) but for 4 years of team control. The next 4 year Marwin probably makes at least 30 million more than Diaz. Second, the need for quality veteran catcher was the top area of concern. Lunhow refused to "overpay" with Tucker or Whitley for Realmuto. Lunhow instead went 1 year $5.75 million on a decent veteran catch with some power in Robinson Chirinos. Maybe Stassi learns to hit at MMP like his .848 OPS on the road. The word is the are adding a bat. I wouldn't be surprised if it isn't Markakis. Should be a cheaper lefty than Harper or Brantley, he is a gold glove fielder that doesn't strikeout. Should be a nice fit on this line up. With all the solid prospects coming through the pipeline it makes the most sense to see what you have. This roster is still good enough to win the division. Once Lunhow finds his #3 starter to pair with JV, Cole, McHugh and Whitely they might chase 100 wins again.
The roster as it stands profiles for ~100 wins (they’re at 48 fWAR, I believe replacement level is 52 wins; I could be wrong though). They are projected to have a 10 win margin for the division. If the Angels were able to add Grandal, Keuchel, and Kimbrel, they’d be most of the way caught up to the Astros in the projections.
I hope they sign all of those guys. In 3 years they would feel stupid. Keuchel is going to the highest bidder. He has his ring. He wants the money. i suspect it might be a mediocre team like the Reds trying to make a splash. It makes sense for Keuchel to go to the NL. It would make his numbers look better not having to face a DH.
It depends on how many World Series they win. Most likely, they would win zero, in which case yes, they’d probably feel stupid. Although if I were them I would rather go all in while they have Trout than not do everything you can to maximize the opportunity of having a once in a lifetime player.
Plus, all 3 of those guys received qualifying offers. I don't even know how the draft pick losses, etc work under that circumstance.
Thanks--this was a fantastic update. I was hoping for the Astros to pick up Realamuto and have Stassi as the backup. Guessing from your comments that the Marlins are asking too much. Seems like we haven't addressed the three areas that are prime for an upgrade: 1B/DH, starting rotation, and catcher (I don't view Robinson as much of an upgrade over Stassi).
Fangraphs and BR use 47.7 wins as the replacement level (1,000 wins over 162 games for 30 teams). BP is a lower replacement value. Fangraphs using Steamer projections has Astros at basically 96 wins. When they incorporate ZiPs into their model, I expect it will go up 1-3 wins as ZiPs typically slightly favors a few of the key Astros more so than core members for other teams over Steamer.
If we can get Altuve, Correa, and Springer to hit like they did in 2017, that’s would be a huge upgrade to the offense. Would love to have a #3 SP not named McHugh, James, Peacock or Valdez. Singing Cruz would be great for DH but I’m fine with giving White a chance if we can find a #3 pitcher. If White doesn’t workout, look for a trade during trade deadline. Honestly, I hope we can sign Bradley to plug him in LF until Tucker is ready. Once Tucker start hitting, he, Bradley and White could rotate at the DH spot.
If Houston could count on White and Tucker as excellent hitters, they could save a ton of money to reallocate to catcher and SP. Its also a shame Whitley wasn’t able to reach the majors and get established last season, since if he and James could both be counted on, Houston’s rotation losses would be a relative non-issue. I suspect that’s really the overriding theme of this offseason for Luhnow: how much can they count on from those 4 guys?
What if White and Tucker are average hitters for their positions? Are the Astros willing to pay free agent prices for Brantley if Tucker is average? Are the Astros willing to pay free agent prices for Cruz if White is an average hitter? I don't know the answers to those questions. My guess would be that odds are good that both Tucker and White are near average or better at their positions. I'm guessing that makes the $/xWAR increase (i.e., xWAR - Astros internal option xWAR) substantial for both Cruz and Brantley.
My take is that they need at least one bat outside the big 4 that they can count on to be elite. Gurriel, Reddick, and Chirinos are high floor, low ceiling guys; players you can count on for roughly league average offense but you can also count on them not providing much more than that. That leaves White and Tucker as the only internal possibilities for properly stretching the lineup. If they think White and Tucker will be merely average, then I think they need to make a move. Given that Tucker can/should start the season in AAA and that OF can get PA at DH, Brantley or Pollock make the most sense among FA if they don’t break the bank for Harper.
The way I see it is trade Reddick listing to offers on Yuli Sign Brantley and Cruz Watch the market on Realmuto call them offer up White , Kemp and Stassi to see where they are at on value. Talk to the Tigers about Fulmer and Castellanos. Sign Ottavino Go fro. There the rest of the way
Marisnick not making the team would help the offense more than Brantley or Pollock. I'm more confident that Astros get okay production either from defense or offense in the OF from 4 players than I am that both Gurriel and White can hit well enough for their positions. The free agents left don't wow me except for Harper, Machado, and Grandal. Pollock may be most interesting free agent left for Astros assuming those three go elsewhere. My guess at the moment is that Astros will focus on trades (primarily SP) and do some bargain hunting in January unless Brantley, Cruz, and/or Pollock take a team friendly deal now.
