Springer has a post-season OPS 1.026 I'm not Jeff Lunhow but I don't trade Springer. That dude is money when the lights are bright.
http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/32078/george-springer Your right, he is better in night games.
I and many others will pitch a fit if they trade springer before his arb years are up. Seriously, I know we want to win, but I want to win with springer, altuve and Bregs (I personally cant connect w Correa as a fan).
Cruz sounds nice in theory (and on paper), but Luhnow doesn't seem like one who will pay an exorbitant amount for what really is *just* a DH. You can't play Cruz in the field at this point. Still a great hitter, but he'll be 39 in July. I'm interested to see how his market will develop, but I think it may end up a tad too high for Luhnow's liking. I'd also guess that Luhnow prefers the DH spot to be a bit more flexible, but who knows. Really it all just depends on what Cruz can fetch on the open market. Donaldson is also an interesting candidate. Seems like the type of player willing to take a one-year deal to re-establish market value. I just don't see how he fits in. Side note: HOU not offering a QO to Morton is more puzzling the more I think about it. Aside from him injury history, I'm guessing Morton's shoulder may be worse than we know. Very telling that Luhnow wouldn't risk the comp. pick on him. MLB.com is prediction Kuechel to WAS at 4/82. Honestly, I'd be 100% down with signing DK to that contract, especially with LMJ and probably Morton out. Can slightly frontload his deal, then that give us: JV, Cole, DK, Mchugh, and the rest of our relatively strong young pitchers to duke out SP5 and bullpen depth. 4/82 may sound like a lot, but it could just put in place the rest of our staff without having to really allocate more money. And, cmon, it's DK.
We'd probably have to add Marisnick to seal the deal. Maybe even Gary Pettis, but that'd be a deal-breaker for me.
Regarding Morton, I was thinking about the possibility of his injury being worse. Didn't he say that one of the factors in him continuing to play was his health? Seems weird to me that he would go from talking about retiring to asking for a multiple year deal if he is seriously injured
Charlie Morton pitched 339 innings for the Astros in the last 2 years including the post season. That is more than 1/4 the total innings he has thrown in his entire career. Morton is about to turn 35 in a couple days. So you add all that up with the shoulder concern and I think the Astros feel like they were lucky to get what they got from him and don't want to push their luck. They can't afford to miss and have 18 million on the DL or even just worn down from usage. He thought about retirement... then Charlie's agent told him that on a 3 year deal he can more than double his entire career earnings and the money is guaranteed even if his arm falls off. What do you say?
My last prediction was a bit unrealistic, and apologies to @Redfish81 for the snap back. Alas, updated predictions: - Resign Kuechel at 4y 90m. That may seem high on it's own, but what it really does is allows the rest of the team to fill out internally (read: as cheaply as possible). We have the depth to fill the back-end of a rotation and bullpen just fine. Signing DK (or really, just an above average SP3) is key to put everyone in their roles. No need to outsource for expensive relievers or middling starters. 22.5m per year is expensive, but you can stagger the contract, and it's less outrageous when you consider the savings elsewhere. At the end of the day, the Astros may just prefer to sign a different SP3. DK has stirred up unnecessary clubhouse drama before, but rewarding DK would be a huge sign to our players from the FO. SP: JV, Cole, Kuechel, McHugh/Peacock and let James, Whitley, Valdez, Armenteros, Martes, Martin, Paulino, Rodgers, etc. battle out SP4 - SP5 starts. Bullpen: Osuna, Pressley, Harris, Devo, Rondon, and 3-4 of the SP5 candidates and other internal arms. That's a strong rotation and bullpen to start the season. Maybe we outsource or deviate a bit depending on what opens up on the market, but we really do have the arms to just replenish from within. - The offense is a lot harder to predict. The following are pretty clearly shoe-ins: Altuve, Bregman, Correa, Springer, Reddick, Marisnick, Kemp, Yuli, and White. That leaves 3-4 spots, depending if we want 12 or 13 position players: 2 catchers, and 1-2 outfielder or infielders. I think we're more likely to carry 13 position players, at least early on. I think one of: Tucker, Davis, Fisher, will take one spot to start the season. Add in a backup catcher (likely Stassi or Hermann), and that leaves a package of two players. One catcher and one who knows. Maybe we just go Perez, or maybe we re-sign Maldonado and one of either Cruz, Brantley, Murphy, or by god's grace Marwin. Perez is just due 10m, 13m, and 13m moving forward, and he'll start the year at age 29. Not too bad of a commitment moving forward. Grandal and Ramos are each 30, and 31, respectively.
Just a few notes: Martes had TJ surgery so he will not be pitching this year, and if Paulino pitches, it will be for the Blue Jays
Obviously, you think DK will age well. Me? My gut is that he will age gracefully, but not be a guy you want $20m+ tied up in years 3 & 4 of a four year contract. I think he will remain useful, but not dominant. I'd rather tie money like that in someone whose best years are ahead of them, not behind them. There is also the idea to invest in the offense (big bat). As long as we have a strong top three TOR pitchers, we will be positioned well for the playoffs. Will definitely following the progress of Josh James and Framber Valdez. If one of those guys could secure the #4 or #5, then spending opportunities open up elsewhere.
I would think Cruz is a shoe in. Brantley could be had aswell. From there you could see one more add Via trade either a C like Perez or Realmuto if they dont get Yasmani Grandal. Or Paul Goldschmidt. That would be three bats. I also think Stassi could be trade bait if they get a chance. ASTROS need more power and if they plan on Tucker being up it's kind of a catch 22 with Marsanik and Kemp one of they could be traded. I also think there will be two Pitchers added to the Rotation Via Trade and two to the Bullpen Via FA
I think DK will have a hard time getting 4/90 anywhere. I see a lot of predictions between 4/72 to 4/80. Without LMJ and possibly CFM next year, I would love to have DK back for 4/80. I was totally happy to see him go but situation has change since off season. But I have a feeling Boras will get DK a longer contract like he did for Darvish but less money. Something along 6/110
I'm not in on DK. I loved him, but he's had some ups and downs over the last couple of years, and his velocity has teetered on the edge of where he becomes very ineffective multiple times. There is such high risk because he seems to fall off a cliff if he loses 1-2 mph on the FB. With that risk, I'd rather evaluate younger guys and find a replacement for much cheaper than tie money up in him. Even though there's the upside of him being who he was this year (basically) for another 4 seasons...when balanced with the downside, it feels like the risk/reward is similar enough to much cheaper guys.
Very fair. I do think DK will age relatively well. Obviously the biggest question mark is if he can sit around 90mph for the next 3ish years. I think he will. I don't see a reason that he'll all of the sudden drop to 87/88 in two years. He's in great shape and he's not that old. He's a smart pitcher who feasts on grounders. I expect him to navigate lineups well for a couple more years, even if he slightly loses some velocity along the way. My guess: he'll continue to maintain an ERA between 3.5 and 4 for the next 3 seasons, all while eating up around 180IP a year. Maybe he's more of a bullpen arm by year 4, and I probably wouldn't entertain a 5y offer. But you can stagger the contract so its heavier the first half. The ultimate question is how much, but staggering 80-90m over 4 years is palatable. Second, overpaying for past performance is just part of how MLB free agency is structured. It's the unwanted byproduct of being cap-less. Teams have to anticipate aging-related regressions and pay up for past performances. It's just part of the game, for better or worse. Maybe the answer is to sign a few cheaper arms and still re-fill mostly internally? We shall see. I could very well be 100% wrong...only way to tell is to see what Luhnow does
Probably the better move, but there is risk. It means giving significant innings to unproven guys. And that could cost you a few games here and there. If someone just slides in and takes up the mantle, then its a big win. I look at it more as a development and/or proper deployment of resources than a cost cutting move. No one wants to hear it, but we have to find ways to clear room ($$$) to sign long term guys. If we dont take advantage of low cost/variable risk scenarios, then our ability to stay viable (world series contenders year after year) is diminished and cut short. I suppose the biggest risk is DK wins a Cy Young next year
