I pretty much agree with this. Would be a little surprised if Martin gets 10 starts. My fear, and I say this knowing no one gives a damn lol, is how many innings per start do we get from all of those unproven guys. I know some of these guys will end up being great, and some won’t pan out...but how many will go even 6 innings regularly, and what is the effect on a pen that is losing McHugh, Peacock, Sipp, Smith I know, I’m a broken record We will win the division, I want our pen fresh in October
I don't see much difference b/t Miley and Keuchel. Would love to have Keuchel back though, never have enough pitching.
The big differences are that Miley absolutely sucked before last year, and he only pitched 80 innings last year. With him, you're putting a lot of faith into a 3 month stretch that looks nothing like he had ever done before that.
This With Keuchel you are likely getting 170+ innings of quality baseball, could take a lot of pressure and extra innings off the pen At the laughable numbers he was asking for at the beginning of the offseason I wanted nothing to do with him either...IF the cost has come way down, he sure would make things settle in a lot better Let’s say McHughs back takes a bit, I know they are saying it’s no big deal but back injuries have their own time table....so if he isn’t ready for the season to start and neither is James JV Cole Miley Peacock Valdez What if Valdez is struggling to throw strikes and they really think he needs to start at AAA, who all would be in the running for the other spot? Wonder if we could move Fisher for a final year contract guy who could just provide some innings of a low to mid 4 era
True. Luhnow wanted him, though, and I'm sure Strom was consulted as well. Luhnow even stated they had been interested in him for awhile. I'm excited to add him to the rotation. It's Valdez that concerns me, but, like I said, I'm high on Armenteros. Whitley could get a June call up. And James could be ready to join the rotation before then.
If Keuchel's price had come down he would be signed already. Boras will squeeze out every penny. At this point Keuchel may not be ready to start the season if he doesn't sign the next couple days. Arrieta signed March 11th last year. He didn't start until the 8th game of the season and only went 4 innings. Alex Cobb signed March 20th and didn't start until the 15th game of the year. He was awful to start the season. Might as well just stretch out James in AAA until he is ready. I have a hard time believing Keuchel can't get at least close to the 17 million for 2 years with a 3rd year vesting option that Happ received. That only leaves the Astros 3-4 million below the luxury tax. Not sure Luhnow/Crane want to go there. If McHugh and Valdez aren't ready to go I would expect Armenteros to be the next guy up. Just look at the 40 man roster. That will tell you the likely options. Unfortunately, Abreu and Rodgers have been awful. I wonder why Cionel Perez hasn't pitched? Anybody heard anything?
I do, in fact I think I was being a little conservative only giving him 10. He has a few things working in his favor in that regard. He's a little more stretched out innings wise. Plus his stuff translates much better to starting, or doesn't translate as well to the pen, however you wanna look at it. Honestly I think he has the highest likelihood of any of our prospects to be a good MLB starter (James and Whitley have higher ceilings), and he's basically ready right now. I wouldn't be shocked at all if he's given a light workload the first 2 months in AAA and then brought straight into the rotation never to leave. Him and James are the 2 guys I like most to help us starting. Framber is ahead of him in the timeline and already on the 40, so he will get first crack, but I like Martin more and the team won't wait too long if Valdez is still walking a ton of people.
He was pretty good in 2012-2013. In 2014 & 2015, his ERA climbed over 4 and his WHIP/BAA went into "bad" territory. In 2016 & 2017, his ERA climbed over 5 and his WHIP (and BAA to lesser extent) went into "horrible" territory. So to amend my statement, we're counting on a 3 month stretch having him back to being what he was in 2013.
But we all love and value Strom/our analytics team for a reason. We tend more out of our pitchers (i.e. McHugh, CFM, Verlander, Cole, etc.). That means no guarantees obviously, but if the front office identified some value in adding Miley to the mix, then sign me up.
He averaged 2.1 fWAR over 2014-2015. While those aren’t world-beater numbers, I would be fine with that outcome from him. 200 innings, 4.40 ERA, sign me up. Anyone expecting him to totally replace Keuchel or Morton is expecting too much. But I think it’s totally reasonable to expect him to hold down a rotation spot and eat innings. I’d say a good comp would be a combo/midpoint of 2017 Fiers and 2017 Keuchel.
Our guys, more than any in the world, know exactly what he is about. I think we may clean his clock. Yankees, bring it!
Seems redundant with the Happ signing, but you never know. He’ll beat em in the playoffs if NYY lets him come back home!
"New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino has been shut down for two weeks after an MRI showed he has rotator cuff inflammation in right shoulder, manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday. Boone added that it's "highly unlikely" that Severino will be ready in time to start on Opening Day" http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26142714/severino-shut-unlikely-opening-day
MLBTR already has their 2019-2020 free agent rankings out. They predict $90M/3yr for Verlander and ~$200M/7yr for Cole. They also expect Bogaerts and Sale each to get $200M+. Tons of pitching currently slated to be available next offseason. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/2019-20-mlb-free-agent-power-rankings.html Sign me up for Verlander at $90M/3yrs if he has another good healthy year. I’m out on Cole for anything over $140M/5yr.
If Cole has a season anywhere close to what he did last year he will get a 6/7 year deal at or above 30 million AAV. He's not even 29 yet. If it takes 3/90 to resign Verlander I would be surprised if the Astros take that risk. Bogaerts would get 200 million because of his age. He's only 25. So if he gets a 10 year deal for 20 million peryear it wouldn't be that surprising.
